A few notes on some players I think are getting stiffed or spoiled in value in fantasy rankings this year:
OVER
RB LeSean McCoy, Phil His current ADP has him going in the mid thirties and in the mid teens overall at the RB position. But with Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver stealing the short yardage and goal line carries and add the fact that Philadelphia is more of a pass first offense, I see McCoy as more of a RB3 than the RB2 he is being drafted as. Think of Julius Jones with the Cowboys a few years ago when Marion Barber was getting all of the red zone work. I'm thinking we might see a similar scenario this year in Philly.
RB Jahvid Best, Det Everyone is touting him as a Chris Johnson clone with big play ability. His ADP has him going anywhere from 3rd round to 5th round in most drafts. Some rankings I've seen have him rated in the top 20 overall at RB. And the fact that Kevin Smith most likely won't be 100% healthy for the start of the season makes him a tempting prospect to say the least. But my alarm goes off when I realize A) He has a serious history of injuries including a major concussion last year that damn near looked like it killed him and B) He plays behind a Lions O-Line that can barely open a ZipLoc bag let alone holes for anyone to run through. If you draft him as anything higher than a RB3, you've got more stones than I do.
WR Steve Smith, Car I've always been a big fan of his but let's look at the facts. 1) The Panthers will be a run-oriented offense with the tandem of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams carrying the bulk of the load. 2) Neither Matt Moore or rookie Jimmy Claussen have the experience or the deep throw to make use of Smith's speed. 3) Smith is an injury waiting to happen, whether it be on the NFL field, or the touch football field. While ADP projections have him going in the mid fourth round and mid teens overall at the WR ranks, I'm not going to draft him as anything more than a bench slot behind my starters.
UNDER
QB Carson Palmer, Cin Palmer had one of his worst seasons last year, especially towards the end. But this year I feel he will be back to 100% health and that the Bengals won't be relying on the running game quite as much. Antonio Bryant was a good pickup, but I think the two key aquisitions for the Bengals were in the draft. Namely TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, who both have trememdous pass catching skills. If you are going to wait for a quarterback until the 6-10th round, Palmer could be a steal.
WR Eddie Royal, Den He went from 91 catches, 980 yards, and 5 TDs in 2008 to totally irrelevant in 2009 with only 37-345 and zero touchdowns.But here's the good news: Brandon Marshall and his 205 catches the last two years is gone. Royal's 79 targets last year WILL go up, despite the presence of rookie Demarius Thomas who I do not believe will be fully ready for the start of the season. Jabar Gaffney will start opposite Royal but is not a WR#1 by any means. Whether it be Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, or Tim Tebow at the helm... the Bronco passing game is going to need to get the ball to Royal to succeed.
RB Felix Jones, Dal A lot of people are red flagging him as injury prone. And the presence of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice also lead detractors to believe he may not be someone to have in their starting lineups in 2009. But Jones tied Chris Johnson in YPC with 5.9 last year (granted, he only got a third of the carries that Johnson did) and can be a weapon in the passing game. He has big play ability that I would be willing to chance as RB2. Injury prone sminjury prone, if worst comes to worst I'll draft him high and get Choice or Barber as handcuff. The Dallas offense is going to be explosive this year and having a key guy like Jones on your roster will help you soar to the playoffs.
Showing posts with label fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy football. Show all posts
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
My Auction-osophy
Well, I know it's been awhile since my last post but I've been pretty busy with work and other projects. Time to do some catching up.
_________________________________________________________
IFFL 2009 Final Update
Ended up losing to the Green Bay Dynasty in the playoffs due to Peyton Manning going completely bonkers against the Jaguars. A real disappointing ending to what was one of my best regular seasons ever. The Dynasty went on to destroy the Bruney Broncos in the Championship. Congrats again John.
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FEXDA II Expert Dynasty League
I recently finished a 16 team dynasty auction league in which other contributors included guys from some pretty prominent fantasy websites. FantasyFootball.com, FantasyGuru, The Huddle, and others were all involved in a month long auction. It was a lot of fun and very excruciating all at the same time. The total cap amount was $400 in which to draft 42 players. 6 of these players had to be rookies. No more, no less. Here's my team and what I paid for each player:
This was my first ever dynasty AUCTION draft. All other auctions I have ever participated in were one year only drafts. But my philosophy in auction drafts has always been the same: Be aggressive to get who you want, even if it means overpaying. Might sound reckless to some ... ok, maybe it is. But in my mind an auction league is an opportunity to fill a roster with players I like or want ... and their acquisition is totally in my own power. And on this roster I have many players I like and wanted going forward. For me that's what's really important. I'd rather lose with players I hand picked than lose with guys I was forced to settle for. I prefer winning with guys I targeted and got, rather than win with guys I had little faith in but took because they were the best available.
My first priority going into the auction was to nab a top five RB no matter what the cost. And since all the top backs came out fast and furious this was done fairly quickly. Ray Rice for $80.00 (20% of my total cap) was my first player acquired. I was pleased to be able to get him.
This being a dynasty league, one thing I told myself and was able to hold to .. I was NOT going to pay more than $1.00 for any player leaning towards the downside of his career. And to me that means a player with nine years or more in the NFL. I managed to almost avoid drafting these player altogether, but only paid $1.00 each for Kerry Collins, Champ Bailey, and Ed Reed. Abjective reached there.
Then I targeted six other specific players and said I would break the bank if necessary to get them. A goal I missed by one player unfortunately as Beanie Wells went way higher than I wanted to pay without completely destroying my chances at the other five. Those five were Chad Henne, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, James Lauranitis, and Rolando McClain. I felt with these players plus Rice, I would have a solid nucleus to build my team around. I paid some major bucks for them.
Throughout the draft I targeted mainly young players. Guys with only a season or two under their belt. My WRs are probably the best example. I totally bypassed any of the top WRs like Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald and bid on guys like Crabtree, Britt, and Knox. Hoping that if they don't bloom this year, they'll hit their stride in year three of their careers. Crabtree, Britt, and Massaquoi should all be their team's #1 wideout this year ... and hopefully for many years to come. Out of the seven WRs I drafted I have one rookie, four second year guys, one third year player, and one fifth year WR. Now that's drafting youth!
Did I draft a team that can win it all this year? Well, probably not ...to be honest. But give it another year or two and I could have a very strong contender. And a lot of players I will look forward to watching.
_________________________________________________________
IFFL 2009 Final Update
Ended up losing to the Green Bay Dynasty in the playoffs due to Peyton Manning going completely bonkers against the Jaguars. A real disappointing ending to what was one of my best regular seasons ever. The Dynasty went on to destroy the Bruney Broncos in the Championship. Congrats again John.
_________________________________________________________
FEXDA II Expert Dynasty League
I recently finished a 16 team dynasty auction league in which other contributors included guys from some pretty prominent fantasy websites. FantasyFootball.com, FantasyGuru, The Huddle, and others were all involved in a month long auction. It was a lot of fun and very excruciating all at the same time. The total cap amount was $400 in which to draft 42 players. 6 of these players had to be rookies. No more, no less. Here's my team and what I paid for each player:
| QB | Chad Henne | Mia | $31.00 | I like his chances to be a top 15 QB with Brandon Marshall arriving via Denver. |
| QB | Vince Young | Tenn | $12.00 | Should be a solid backup. Might have his best year yet statistically. Possible suspension for assault is irritating. |
| QB | Kerry Collins | Tenn | $1.00 | Grabbed him before VY's incident. Now am glad I did. Protects against a suspension. Good handcuff either way. |
| RB | Ray Rice | Bal | $80.00 | In a PPR league he should be well worth the price tag. |
| RB | Matt Forte | Chi | $42.00 | Had a sophomore slump in 2009. Hoping for a bounce back. |
| RB | Reggie Bush | NO | $17.00 | Not a bad price for a multi-dimensional RB#3. |
| RB | Javon Ringer | Tenn | $4.00 | If CJ holds out or gets injured, I could have a huge bargain. |
| RB | Willis McGahee | Bal | $4.00 | A $4 handcuff for my $80 franchise player. Viable as an emergency start too. |
| RB | Mike Bell | Phil | $2.00 | Could be a sleeper if LeSean McCoy stumbles in Philly.. |
| RB | Leonard Weaver | Phil | $1.00 | Not a sexy pick but was surprisingly productive in the Philly offense last year. |
| WR | Michael Crabtree | SF | $55.00 | Yeah I probably overpaid but I targeted him as THE WR I had to have. |
| WR | Kenny Britt | Tenn | $27.00 | Again, paid a steep price for a 2nd year WR. Should be worth it in the long run. |
| WR | Brandon LaFell* | Car | $7.00 | He has a great chance at winning starting job this year. He and Clausen may hook up for years. |
| WR | Mohamed Massaquoi | Cle | $6.00 | Another 2nd year WR who has a decent chance at being THE guy. |
| WR | Johnny Knox | Chi | $11.00 | Overpaid for him, but love him in a Mike Martz offense. |
| WR | Earl Bennett | Chi | $2.00 | Between him or Knox I should have a strong Chic WR. |
| WR | Brad Smith | NYJ | $1.00 | Purely a depth pick. Won't see enough action behind other Jet WRs to merit a start. Possible trade bait. |
| WR | Deon Butler | Sea | $1.00 | Could be Seattle's slot receiver. If not this year then next. |
| TE | Jermaine Gresham* | Cin | $7.00 | Good price for him I thought. Cincinnati's first real pass catching TE in years. |
| TE | Ben Watson | Cle | $1.00 | Won't be a fantasy stud, but like him as a spot starter if Gresham is slow to develop. |
| TE | Daniel Fells | Stl | $1.00 | Second year TE showed promise as a rookie. Possibly Sam Bradford's go-to guy? |
| PK | Connor Barth | TB | $1.00 | His three 50 yard FG day vs. Miami last year stood out for me. Can't beat the price. |
| PK | Josh Scobee | Jac | $1.00 | Needed another kicker. Got one. End of story here. |
| DE | Will Smith | NO | $5.00 | One of my favorite former Buckeyes. Paid a little too much for him, but I'm pleased. |
| DE | Matt Shaunessy | Oak | $1.00 | Won a starting spot in his rookie year. Improvement in 2010 a good probability. |
| DE | Carlos Dunlap* | Cin | $4.00 | Won't be a starter this year, but could be valuable down the road. |
| DE | Alex Carrington* | Buff | $2.00 | Another developmental rookie that I hope becomes a starter eventually. |
| LB | James Laurinitis | STL | $22.00 | Wanted him badly and overpaid for him, but he will be my IDP anchor for awhile. |
| LB | Rolando McClain* | Oak | $20.00 | Will be a starting LB for me (and the Raiders) hopefully for many MANY years. |
| LB | Demarcus Ware | Dal | $6.00 | Not a horrible price for a Pro Bowl sack machine LB. |
| LB | A.J. Hawk | GB | $3.00 | Another of my favorite Buckeyes. Not bad as my 4th LB. Needs to step up a bit. |
| LB | Tamba Hali | KC | $1.00 | Converted DE had 8.5 sacks last year. Hoping for more this year. |
| LB | Gerald Hayes | Ariz | $1.00 | Should benefit from the departure of Karlos Dansby. Statistically speaking that is. |
| CB | Vontae Davis | Mia | $2.00 | 2nd year CB has big play potential. Could be a longtime starter for me. |
| CB | Mike Jenkins | Dal | $1.00 | Had a solid sophomore season in 09. Looking for him to improve. |
| CB | Champ Bailey | Den | $1.00 | He's a bit long in the tooth, but the price was right. |
| S | Ed Reed | Bal | $1.00 | Perennial Pro-Bowler still has gas left in the tank despite injuries last year. I hope. |
| S | Michael Griffin | Tenn | $1.00 | Young safety that can make big plays. |
| S | Antrell Rolle | NYG | $1.00 | Should have a decent year for the Giants. |
| S | Taylor Mays* | SF | $8.00 | Has something to prove after being snubbed by Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. |
This was my first ever dynasty AUCTION draft. All other auctions I have ever participated in were one year only drafts. But my philosophy in auction drafts has always been the same: Be aggressive to get who you want, even if it means overpaying. Might sound reckless to some ... ok, maybe it is. But in my mind an auction league is an opportunity to fill a roster with players I like or want ... and their acquisition is totally in my own power. And on this roster I have many players I like and wanted going forward. For me that's what's really important. I'd rather lose with players I hand picked than lose with guys I was forced to settle for. I prefer winning with guys I targeted and got, rather than win with guys I had little faith in but took because they were the best available.
My first priority going into the auction was to nab a top five RB no matter what the cost. And since all the top backs came out fast and furious this was done fairly quickly. Ray Rice for $80.00 (20% of my total cap) was my first player acquired. I was pleased to be able to get him.
This being a dynasty league, one thing I told myself and was able to hold to .. I was NOT going to pay more than $1.00 for any player leaning towards the downside of his career. And to me that means a player with nine years or more in the NFL. I managed to almost avoid drafting these player altogether, but only paid $1.00 each for Kerry Collins, Champ Bailey, and Ed Reed. Abjective reached there.
Then I targeted six other specific players and said I would break the bank if necessary to get them. A goal I missed by one player unfortunately as Beanie Wells went way higher than I wanted to pay without completely destroying my chances at the other five. Those five were Chad Henne, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, James Lauranitis, and Rolando McClain. I felt with these players plus Rice, I would have a solid nucleus to build my team around. I paid some major bucks for them.
Throughout the draft I targeted mainly young players. Guys with only a season or two under their belt. My WRs are probably the best example. I totally bypassed any of the top WRs like Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald and bid on guys like Crabtree, Britt, and Knox. Hoping that if they don't bloom this year, they'll hit their stride in year three of their careers. Crabtree, Britt, and Massaquoi should all be their team's #1 wideout this year ... and hopefully for many years to come. Out of the seven WRs I drafted I have one rookie, four second year guys, one third year player, and one fifth year WR. Now that's drafting youth!
Did I draft a team that can win it all this year? Well, probably not ...to be honest. But give it another year or two and I could have a very strong contender. And a lot of players I will look forward to watching.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Week 14 Rumblings
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Stock Watch For 2010
It's never too early to look ahead to the following season. And there are more than a few players whose 2010 seasons are up in the air. Could their fantasy stock rise? Could it fall? Is it a complete mystery? Here is a look at a select few who should have their production either significantly increase, decrease, or whose future is totally up in the air.
RISERS
WR Michael Crabtree (SF) To come in as late in the season as he did due to his holdout and be as much a part of the 49er's offense as he has is pretty telling. 32 catches for 406 yards in just seven games projects to about 70 catches and nearly 1000 yards. Next year, with a full off-season program under his belt and Alex Smith fully entrenched as the starter, I could see Crabtree as a strong #3 WR in fantasy lineups.
RB Justin Forsett (Sea) Forsett made the most of his opportunity when Julius Jones sat due to injury and is still getting a few touches, even catching a TD last week as the third down change of pace back. Next year there is a strong possibility of him beating Jones out of the starting RB job.
QB Chad Henne (Mia) Last week Henne had a breakout game against the Patriots, throwing for over 300 yards and 2 TDs. It seems like he's developed quite the rapport with WRs Davone Bess and rookie Brian Hartline. Next year, with Ronnie Brown a huge injury risk and Ricky Williams fountain youth running dry ... the team may have to lean more on it's passing game.... which could see Henne posting decent numbers.
RB Chris Jennings (Clev) Unless Jamal Lewis "pulls a Favre" and retires, then unretires ... Jennings could find himself in the starting lineup over RBs Harrison and James Davis for the Brwons. Unless the Browns take C.J. Spiller in the draft that is.
FALLERS
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) It's looking like the future Hall Of Famer jumped the shark in late 2007. He's done well for owners in TD only leagues this year, but yardage wise he will not hit 1000 yards rushing in a season for the first time in his career unless he averages more than 140 yards over the last three games. Next year, it's questionable whether he'll even be with the Chargers and may have to take a lesser role with another team.
RB Reggie Bush (NO) What can you say about Bush other than HUGE disappoinment? He can't stay healthy for a full season and even when he IS playing, he's Captain Sporadic ... getting the occasional two TD game but disappearing in others. With Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas both doing admirable jobs carrying the load, why would the Saints use Bush as anything other than a thrid down back and PR next year?
WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia) He's a first round bust that lost his chance to be a major impact player in the Dolphin passing game this year by dropping easy passes and running poor routes. Unless your league starts a KR/PR in 2010, I'd shy away from the former Buckeye.
QB Jason Campbell (Wash) He's actually suprised as far as decent numbers have been concerned. But the Redskins weren't sold on him to start the season ... and the team hasn't gotten any better. He might be the starter going into next year, but if the team drafts a QB in the first round and the season goes to hell quickly ... it might be over for Campbell.
ON THE BUBBLE?
WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) With the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in the Indy passing game, where does that leave the former first round pick? Injuries have ruined his season and allowed others to pass him by on the depth chart. Could he be traded and be a key cog in someone elses offense in 2010?
WR Terrell Owens (Buff) Will the Bills want to bring him back next year? If so, will T.O. WANT to come back? And in either case, will he still be effective at his age? You've got to keep in mind there will be a new HC and new OC for the Bills next year.
QB Jamarcus Russell (Oak) Will his benching a few weeks ago wake him up? The Raiders now have a plethora of potential pass catchers in Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, Chaz Shiliens, and even Darrius Heyward-Bey ... but has Bruce Gradkowski grabbed the starting QB job in a chokehold? If so ... where does that leave Russell? And the biggest question .. can he ever be a starting NFL QB?
QB Brady Quinn (Clev) He's shown glimpses this year but a lot of questions hang over the Browns as a whole. Will Mangini still be coach? Who will the new GM be? And will the Dawgs target a Jake Locker or Colt McCoy in the draft?
__________________________________
IFFL UPDATE
A 63-38 victory over the Buckeye Wrecking Crew ups my record to 11-2 and all but eliminates the BWC from playoff contention, although they can still get in by beating the Green Bay Dynasty by 52 points or more. Improbable, but not impossible.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Miami Waves | 11 | 2 | 868 |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 9 | 4 | 798 |
| Buckeye Wrecking Crew | 8 | 5 | 747 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 7 | 6 | 762 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 5 | 8 | 883 |
This final week of the regualr season is almost meaningless to me. But to my opponent The Running Vikings it's a must win to get into the playoffs. I have mixed feelings about wanting my team to finish 12-2. If I score big this week, it could be a bad omen for the playoff game the following weekend. And I've seen it before ... the best team in the league has a huge game right before the playoffs ... then falls flat on it's face in the first round. The Vikings .. ironically enough ... is loaded with Minnesota players including Bret Favre, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and the Vikings DST. Add Steven Jackson and Vincent Jackson and you have the makings of a semi-dangerous lineup. My lineup for the week:
| TMQB | Tony Romo (Dal TMQB) | vs. San Diego |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | vs. Detroit |
| RB | Laurence Maroney (NE) | vs. Carolina |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | @NY Giants |
| WR | Randy Moss (NE) | vs. Carolina |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | @ Minnesota |
| PK | Ryan Longwell (Minn) | vs. Cincinnati |
| DST | NY Jets | @ Tampa Bay |
I won't be heartbroken if I lose, even though means my nine game winning streak comes to an end.
In the Fanatics 16 Man Brawl League, I have made the playoffs as the fifth seed and will be playing the fourth seeded Cape Fears. Off to a good start already as Rothlisberger did virtually nothing for him. Hoping for a big day from the Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Twas The Night Before Kickoff: Week 13 Rumblings
Twas the night before kickoff
and in Santas's workshop
and in Santas's workshop
Old Santa was cursing
at his tiny laptop.
at his tiny laptop.
When from the door,
there came such a rumble,
you would have thought that
Steve Slaton had fumbled
you would have thought that
Steve Slaton had fumbled
In burst Mr. Jingle,
Santa's Head Elf
who blustered like Jon Gruden,
in spite of himself
"Santa come quick!"
"Rudolph's not well!"
"The veterinarian just told me,
it's a torn ACL!"
Just then Santa's visage
became like that of Bill Cowher
His cheeks got more rosy
and his grimace quite sour.
"Not now Jingle!" he bellowed,
"Can't you see I'm quite tied up?"
"I'm trying to figure out
my fantasy lineups!"
"But Santa!" said Jingle,
you've been busy for WEEKS!"
"You've been in here so long
you're really starting to reek!"
"Have some cookies!" begged the elf
"Or you'll lose all that girth!"
"If you get any thinner,
you'll be Cris Collinsworth!"
"I'm in twelve leagues!" bellowed Santa
"And most of my teams stink!"
"But I know I can fix this,
I've just got to think!"
"Rudolph's not well!"
"The veterinarian just told me,
it's a torn ACL!"
Just then Santa's visage
became like that of Bill Cowher
His cheeks got more rosy
and his grimace quite sour.
"Not now Jingle!" he bellowed,
"Can't you see I'm quite tied up?"
"I'm trying to figure out
my fantasy lineups!"
"But Santa!" said Jingle,
you've been busy for WEEKS!"
"You've been in here so long
you're really starting to reek!"
"Have some cookies!" begged the elf
"Or you'll lose all that girth!"
"If you get any thinner,
you'll be Cris Collinsworth!"
"I'm in twelve leagues!" bellowed Santa
"And most of my teams stink!"
"But I know I can fix this,
I've just got to think!"
"I drafted Matt Forte six times,
and he's been a huge dud!"
"But of course most of the experts
thought he'd be a big stud!"
"Detroit's Calvin Johnson,
should have had a big year!"
"But instead he's been as useless
as a three legged reindeer!"
"Eddie Royal of the Broncos,
was to be my PPR giant!"
But like Cleveland's run defense,
he's been most unreliant!"
"I had Ronnie Brown,
and he started out buff!"
Oh why didn't I grab
Ricky Williams to handcuff?
"I traded Thomas Jones to the Easter Bunny,
for Kerry Collins and Westbrook!"
"One got a concussion,
the other ...the hook."
"MJD has shined brightly,
like a big Christmas tree!"
"But wow, did he screw me,
when he took that darn knee!!"
"Oh Santa." whined Jingle
"Must you be controversial?"
"We've got more problems out there,
than Peyton Manning has commercials!"
"Speaking of Peyton Manning,"
said Saint Nick with a stutter,
"I should have drafted HIM,
instead of that bozo Jay Cutler!"
"And doggonit I knew it,
Miles Austin was a sleeper!"
"But I lost out on the waivers,
to the friggin Grim Reaper!"
"Mark Sanchez looked promising,
interceptions aside.."
"Just wish when I grabbed him,
he had learned how to SLIDE!!"
Jingle sighed in frustration,
then made a loud cackle,
he rushed and hit Santa,
with a horse collar tackle!
"Please Santa!" begged Jingle
"Just listen to me!"
"You'll make the playoffs!
I promise, you'll see!!"
"But we need you out there,
it's time for THE trip!"
"Like Ditka might say,
dude, get a grip!!"
Santa slowly got up,
then started to laugh ,
"You're right Jingle!" he said,
"Can't miss the first half!!"
"The sleigh's ready!" said Jingle.
"And I'll get your labtop."
"You can keep track of the scores,
and you won't have to stop!"
So Santa got dressed,
in his suit of bright red..
while visions of championships
danced in his head.
And as he departed the Pole,
he cried a mighty "HO HO HO!"
"Merry Christmas to all!"
"GO OCHOCINCO!!!!"
By Chris Carwile
December 2009
__________________________________
IFFL UPDATE
With a 63-38 victory over the Pennsylvania Pimpdaddies, combined with a Green Bay Dynasty loss, I have clinched a playoff spot and will have the opportunity to possibly repeat as IFFL Champion. Even though the Dynasty and Buckeye Wrecking Crew are both only two games behind me with two games remaining, they face each other in the final week of the regualr season, so there is no way they both can catch me.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Miami Waves | 10 | 2 | 805 |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 8 | 4 | 753 |
| Buckeye Wrecking Crew | 8 | 4 | 708 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 7 | 5 | 718 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 5 | 7 | 772 |
The remaining playoff spot is still up for grabs between the Green Bay Dynasty, Buckeye Wrecking Crew, and the West Virginia Dolphins. The Dolphins and Dynasty play each other this week while the Wrecking Crew faces my Miami Waves. While I won't spill any tears if I lose this game, I'm not going to lay down for the BWC, whose lineup will include Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, and Steve Smith (NYG). My lineup this week:
| TMQB | Cincinnati (Carson Palmer) | vs. Detroit |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | @ Indianapolis |
| WR | Laurence Maroney (NE) | @ Miami |
| WR | Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) | vs. Houston |
| WR | Randy Moss (NE) | @ Miami |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | vs. Detroit |
| PK | Ryan Longwell (Minn) | @ Arizona |
| DST | Denver Broncos | @ Kansas City |
With DeSean Jackson unlikely to play this week, I'm inserting a second RB. Maroney seems the best start, but I'm mulling LeSean McCoy as well and could make a last minute switch.
In two of my other leagues I'm having sucess as well. In the FFTwitter League (Yahoo!) I'm 9-3 and have clinched a playoff spot, while in the Fanatics 16 Man Brawl League I am 8-4 and on the cusp of making the playoffs. Need to win this week to get in though.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Week 12 Rumblings
__________________________________
STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS (Week 12)
-STUDS-
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. Det) If Brady Quinn of all people can have a career day against the Lions defense, can you imagine the numbers Aaron Rodgers will put up on national television against them? Can't think of a better way to celebrate a holiday then to watch your fantasy QB carve up a victory.
RB Joseph Addai (Ind @ Hou) He hasn't had a 100 yard rushing day yet this season, but he's the guy who gets the ball in the red zone. Houston's run defense is horrible and I like Addai to exploit that this week.
RB Justin Forsett (Sea @ Stl) The Rams defense is horrible. The Cardinals burned them for over 200 rushing yards last week. Forsett only had 9 yards against the Vikings last week but still managed to score a TD. If you were the owner that jumped on him on the waiver wire, this could be the week he pays big dividends.
WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin vs. Clev) Ocho has been quiet the last few weeks but he scored twice against the Browns in Cleveland earlier this year. He's due for a big game and if a rookie QB can throw five TDs against the Browns, you know Palmer will have a good game. I'm betting Ocho is the main beneficiary.
DUDS
QB Tony Romo (Dal vs. Oak) The Raiders can't defend the run but CAN defend the pass and rush the QB. Romo hurt his back last week making a tackle and I can't imagine him being 100% just four days afterwards. Either the Cowboys run the ball to beat the Raiders, or Romo is so ineffective we have a John Kitna sighting. Either way, Romo's numbers will be pedestrian at best.
RB Rashard Mendenhall (Pit @ Balt) I don't like any Steelers this week if Rothlisberger is not 100% But Ravens are going to be fired up at home against an opponent they know for SURE won't be a pushover. Despite two bad games against Cedric Benson, the Ravens are still 6th best against RBs. I expect them to hold Mendenhall to under 75 yards this week.
WR Calvin Johnson (Det vs. GB) He finally had a big game, but it came against the Browns. This week he'll be covered by Charles Woodson and have Dante Culpepper throwing to him. Not a great recipe for fantasy points. If you don't want heartbreak to go with your Thanksgiving heartburn, leave him on the bench if you have better matchups elsewhere.
TE Kevin Boss (NYG @ Den) Denver has only allowed 2 TDs by tight ends so far this year. While Boss has been on a roll the last few weeks, he and Eli Manning will find the road tough to hoe in the Mile High City this Thanksgiving Day.
SLEEPERS
WR Brandon Gibson (Stl vs. Seattle) Gibson will be starting for the Rams this week due to injuries at WR. He's looked pretty good the last couple of games and is playing a Seattle defense third only to Tennessee and Jacksonville in giving up fantasy points to WRs.
QB Alex Smith (SF vs. Jac) He's been pretty good since taking over for Shaun Hill a few weeks ago. He has certainly built a good rhythm with TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree. The Jags are having a hard time preventing big plays in the passing game lately and this could be the week Smith explodes with huge numbers.
WR Kenny Britt (Tenn vs. Ariz) The rookie first round pick finally found the end zone for his first career TD catch last week. Arizona and Tennessee will be playing in a high scoring shootout on Sunday and Britt may be in line for another score or two from Vince Young, now that he has finally busted the TD cherry.
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JUST SAYING
The main float in the Oakland Thanksgiving Day Parade.
_________________________________IFFL UPDATE
With a climatic 49-41 victory over the West Virginia Dolphins, and losses by the Green Bay Dynasty and Buckeye Wrecking Crew I gained a cushion in the Glory Division playoff race. At 9-2 I am one game ahead of the Dynasty and two games in front of the Dolphins and Wrecking Crew.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Miami Waves | 9 | 2 | 742 |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 8 | 3 | 690 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 7 | 4 | 679 |
| Buckeye Wrecking Crew | 7 | 4 | 661 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 5 | 6 | 734 |
My opponent this week is the Pennsylvania PimpDaddies. Despite the record, this is a team to be feared, especially in this scoring system. QB Donavan McNabb, RBs Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams (Cedric Benson too if he's healthy), WRs Brandon Marshall, Hines Ward, and Miles Austin, and even TEs Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. It's amazing that this team is almost out of contention for a playoff spot.
My lineup for this pivotal division contest:
| TMQB | Cincinnati (Carson Palmer) | vs. Cleveland |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | vs. Arizona |
| WR | Randy Moss (NE) | @ New Orleans |
| WR | Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) | @ San Francisco |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | vs. Washington |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | vs. Cleveland |
| PK | Ryan Longwell (Minn) | vs.Chicago |
| DST | Denver Broncos | vs. NY Giants |
Tony Romo's back injury concerns me too much to start him on Thanksgiving, so I'll go with Palmer .. which is a favorable matchup against Cleveland. Again, I'm tempted to start LeSean McCoy but have no idea which WR to bench, so I'll stick with my four WR formation and gut it out.
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Sunday, November 15, 2009
Week 10 Ramblings
This has been a very hectic week so this version of 4th and 37 will be a bit short. Consider this my "Bye Week".
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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS
STUDS
RB Ray Rice (Bal) Cleveland's defense will have no chance of stopping Rice on the ground OR in the passing game. I expect at least over 150 total yards of offense for the second year RB from Rutgers.
WR Wes Welker (NE) Randy Moss should have a big day too, but in what I think will be an offensive shootout in Indy, Tom Brady will have to pass at least 40 times. Welker should get 10 or more catches and at least 100 yards.
WR Percy Harvin (Minn) The speedy rookie should have a big day against a slow Detroit defensive backfield. Could have another KR score to boot.
DST Dallas Cowboys If your scoring system takes sacks into account, this is almost a must-start with Green Bay's meek pass protection. DeMarcus Ware also a definitve start as an IDP.
DUDS
WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) Jets and CB Darrell Revis pretty good at shutting down opposing #1 WRs. QB David Garrard pretty good at NOT finding his WRs on the road.
RB Julius Jones (Sea) This is the week the Arizona Cardinals will actually look dominant at home. They'll get off to a fast start, making Jones virtually useless in the second half.
QB Josh Freeman (TB) Last week the rookie looked good, but was aided by a opportunistic Tampa D. This week his learning curve gets quite a bit steeper against the Dolphins.
SLEEPERS
TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det) The Vikings are suprisingly the worst in the league at defending against the tight end. The Detroit rookie finally started getting some looks last week in Seattle with 7 catches for 70 yards and a TD. Expect more of the same this week.
WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) Raiders need a boost in the passing game and his hands can provide it. Chiefs pass defense among the worst in the league. Could have a nice welcome back game.
DST Kansas City On the other hand, Raider QB Jamarcus Russell very sloppy with the ball and could turn it over three or four times, giving Chief defenders gift TDs.
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IFFL UPDATE
With a big 102-47 win over the West Virginia Dolphins I vaulted into first place in the Glory Division thanks to the Pennsylvania PimpDaddies upsetting the Green Bay Dynasty. My last three games have been huge point scorers and have allowed me to catch up after being way behind early on.
Up this week are the 3-6 Delaware Enforcers, who have QB Tom Brady, RB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, and WR Wes Welker as it's main weapons. My lineup will look like this:
Since this is Saturday, Devin Hester has already played and knotted me a big goose egg. This doesn't bode well for me. If Brady hooks up with Welker a lot and not Randy Moss, I could be in big trouble.
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GO BUCKS!!!
Whoooo hooo! Go Bucks!! With the win over Iowa today, the Ohio State Buckeyes are finally going to a Rose Bowl after 12 years!!! A win against Michigan this week will be icing on the cake!! O-H-I-O!!!
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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS
STUDS
RB Ray Rice (Bal) Cleveland's defense will have no chance of stopping Rice on the ground OR in the passing game. I expect at least over 150 total yards of offense for the second year RB from Rutgers.
WR Wes Welker (NE) Randy Moss should have a big day too, but in what I think will be an offensive shootout in Indy, Tom Brady will have to pass at least 40 times. Welker should get 10 or more catches and at least 100 yards.
WR Percy Harvin (Minn) The speedy rookie should have a big day against a slow Detroit defensive backfield. Could have another KR score to boot.
DST Dallas Cowboys If your scoring system takes sacks into account, this is almost a must-start with Green Bay's meek pass protection. DeMarcus Ware also a definitve start as an IDP.
DUDS
WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) Jets and CB Darrell Revis pretty good at shutting down opposing #1 WRs. QB David Garrard pretty good at NOT finding his WRs on the road.
RB Julius Jones (Sea) This is the week the Arizona Cardinals will actually look dominant at home. They'll get off to a fast start, making Jones virtually useless in the second half.
QB Josh Freeman (TB) Last week the rookie looked good, but was aided by a opportunistic Tampa D. This week his learning curve gets quite a bit steeper against the Dolphins.
SLEEPERS
TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det) The Vikings are suprisingly the worst in the league at defending against the tight end. The Detroit rookie finally started getting some looks last week in Seattle with 7 catches for 70 yards and a TD. Expect more of the same this week.
WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) Raiders need a boost in the passing game and his hands can provide it. Chiefs pass defense among the worst in the league. Could have a nice welcome back game.
DST Kansas City On the other hand, Raider QB Jamarcus Russell very sloppy with the ball and could turn it over three or four times, giving Chief defenders gift TDs.
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IFFL UPDATE
With a big 102-47 win over the West Virginia Dolphins I vaulted into first place in the Glory Division thanks to the Pennsylvania PimpDaddies upsetting the Green Bay Dynasty. My last three games have been huge point scorers and have allowed me to catch up after being way behind early on.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Miami Waves | 7 | 2 | 617 |
| Green Bay Dyansty | 7 | 2 | 574 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 6 | 3 | 575 |
| Buckete Wrecking Crew | 6 | 3 | 540 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 4 | 5 | 623 |
Up this week are the 3-6 Delaware Enforcers, who have QB Tom Brady, RB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, and WR Wes Welker as it's main weapons. My lineup will look like this:
| TMQB | Dallas (Tony Romo) | @ Green Bay |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | vs. Buffalo |
| WR | Randy Moss (NE) | @ Indianapolis |
| WR | Devin Hester (Chic) | @ San Francisco |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | @ San Diego |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | @ Pittsburgh |
| PK | Nick Folk (Dal) | @ Green Bay |
| DST | Denver Broncos | @ Washington |
Since this is Saturday, Devin Hester has already played and knotted me a big goose egg. This doesn't bode well for me. If Brady hooks up with Welker a lot and not Randy Moss, I could be in big trouble.
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GO BUCKS!!!
Whoooo hooo! Go Bucks!! With the win over Iowa today, the Ohio State Buckeyes are finally going to a Rose Bowl after 12 years!!! A win against Michigan this week will be icing on the cake!! O-H-I-O!!!
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Week 9 Ramblings
EATING CROW
Maurice Jones-Drew is making me eat my words. Before the season started I was shocked at how highly ranked he was in fantasy projections and aghast that in some drafts he was even going first overall. I didn't see him as a #1 RB, let alone worthy enough to be taken with the very first pick. 8 weeks later he leads the NFL in rushing TDs with ten and is gaining 5.5 yards per carry. His EIGHT carry game last week against the Titans netted him over 170 yards rushing. Yikes! My comments about him being a Darren Sproles/Leon Washington type that could not function as a lone feature back in an NFL offense was obviously very narrow minded. And the fact that he's only 5'8" has nothing to do with his abilities or his toughness.
Normally I wouldn't bother admitting I was wrong, but this one was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off. Although I did say he wouldn't make it through the season and the season is not over yet ... I have a feeling he'll be just fine for the remainder. Pass me a wing please.
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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS: WEEK 9
STUDS
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB @ TB) The Packers are ticked about losing to the Vikings again. Rodgers going to come into this week with a chip on his shoulder. Look for him to take it out on a very bad Tampa D.
RB Frank Gore (SF vs. Tenn) Okay, if Maurice Jones-Drew and light up the Titan run defense with just eight carries, think about the damage Gore can do with a steady workload. Gore already has three TD runs of 50 yards or longer.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac vs. KC) Speaking of MJD ... again .... KC's run defense not much better than Tennessee's. I suspect Jones-Drew will get more than eight touches this time.
WR Randy Moss (NE vs. Mia) Two rookie CBs starting for the Dolphins, need I say more?
DST New Orleans Jake Delhomme avoided turnovers last week in Arizona .... but an opportunistic Saints defense has a pretty good chance of scoring again on an INT return.
DUDS
QB Matt Schaub (Hou @ Ind) The loss of Owen Daniels is a huge blow to this offense. There's only so many times you can throw it to Andre Johnson.
RB Ronnie Brown (Mia @ NE) Think the Patriots have forgotten how Brown singlehandedly destroyed them in Gillette Stadium last year? Nope. Think they'll let it happen again? Nope. Can you say "Mildcat"?
RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Benson was the first RB to hit the Ravens with a 100 yard rushing day in almost two years back in week 4. The Ravens came out of the bye week breathing fire and lit Denver up .... stopping Benson from doing it again will be a top priority.
WR Miles Austin (Dal @ Phil) CBs Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown have a knack for countering a team's best WR. If Austin HAS been playing over his head ... this is the game he comes back to earth.
WR Antonio Bryant (TB vs. GB) With a rookie QB vs. CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris? No thanks, I'll pass.
SLEEPERS
RB Jamaal Charles (KC @ Jac) Getting the start and has the speed to break one. With what Chris Johnson did to the Jags defense last week, Charles could make a play or two.
WR Michael Crabtree (SF vs. Tenn) Has had two weeks to warm up and has looked good doing it. Could see his first score against a weak Titans secondary.
WR Malcolm Floyd (SD @ NYG) Giants d-backs are beat up. Chris Chambers has hit the road. Floyd has a chance for some big things in the Meadowlands.
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IFFL UPDATE
Improved my record to 6-2, gained some ground in total points scored, and slid into third place in the Glory Division with a 97-55 victory over the Bruney Broncos. Chris Johnson's huge game was the difference. This week is a HUGE matchup against the division rival West Virginia Dolphins, who are also 6-2 and just a few points ahead of me.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 7 | 1 | 546 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 6 | 2 | 528 |
| Miami Waves | 6 | 2 | 515 |
| Buckete Wrecking Crew | 5 | 3 | 471 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 3 | 5 | 533 |
Dolphins owner Roger Miller is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet, but his luck in fantasy football has been atrocious over the years. This is his best start ever and while I wish I could root for him ... NOT THIS WEEK ROG! The Dolphins have QB Matt Ryan, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Steve Slaton, and WR Andre Johnson as it's main weapons. My lineup should lok like this:
| TMQB | Cincinnati (Carson Palmer) | vs. Baltimore |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | @ San Francisco |
| WR | Randy Moss (NE) | vs. Miami |
| WR | Devin Hester (Chic) | vs. Arizona |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | vs. Dallas |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | vs. Baltimore |
| PK | Nick Folk (Dal) | @ Philadelphia |
| DST | Denver Broncos | vs. Pittsburgh |
I do have other options to consider. Should I start Romo @Philadelphia over Palmer at QB? Should I start Laurence Maroney vs. Miami or Mike Sims-Walker vs. KC (both good matchups) instead of Hester? This IS a key game. If I win I move up into second place and gain leverage in the run to the playoffs, if I lose I risk falling back into fourth and having to play catch up all over again. I play the Dolphins again in two weeks and need to at least split with them to keep up.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Ramblings Week 8: House Of Horrors
It's mid-season for fantasy football owners and while there have been many happy returns on such players as Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Wayne, and others ... there have been many horrors as well. Players who were drafted high but so far have been huge letdowns. What's the outlook for some of these players who have had nightmarish first halves. Will they rise from the grave or continue to plummet into the depths of fantasy hell?
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RB Matt Forte (Chic) If you drafted him, it was most likely in the early first round. Are you gritting your teeth yet? He's only had one game of 100 yards and one TD (vs. Detroit). The only favorable match-ups left on the schedule are this week vs. Cleveland and in Week 13 against the Rams. The Bears play the Lions in Week 17 and that most likely won't help you. If he DOES go off on the Browns this week, SELL HIGH and trade him because his struggles will continue afterwards.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) After watching him try several times to get into the end zone against the Chiefs and failing, it's clear LT has lost a step or two. He's already missed two games to injury and had only one TD to his credit this year. However, hope is not lost if you look at his schedule. Oakland's swiss cheese run defense gives him one last chance to stay in your starting lineup this week. He also has good match-ups in Weeks 12 and 13 (Chiefs and Browns). And if he does manage to turn it around, he could be very valuable if you make it to "Championship Week 17" where the Chargers play the hapless Titans.
WR Steve Smith (Car) With solid match-ups the last three games and nothing to show for it, Smith is an obvious bench candidate. He has zero touchdowns in his first five games. With the way Jake Delhomme is playing and a really rough schedule, it's unlikely we'll be seeing much production here. You might want to look elsewhere.
WR Terrell Owens (Buff) The outlook is bleak here as well. Buffalo's QBs do not have the arms to get the ball deep to T.O. and the aging Owens seems to have lost the ability to make tacklers miss and get any YAC. You might want to consider spot starting him in Weeks 10 and 14 against the Titans and Chiefs, but other than that, forget the popcorn.
WR Anquan Boldin (Ariz) Injuries have once again hampered Boldin this year, but he's always had the knack for bouncing back from them. The Cardinal's schedule is too juicy (especially in Weeks 16 and 17) to give up on him just yet. Be patient and I think you'll be glad you did come Week 10 and beyond.
WR Roy Williams (Dal) He was supposed to take T.O.'s place as the #1 WR. Didn't work out that way however as Miles Austin came out of nowhere too put up humongous numbers. Williams only has 12 catches and one TD ... having as much value as he did last year in Dallas. The Cowboys schedule doesn't get a lot easier and Williams is battling injuries. Find a replacement for him in your lineup if you can.
TE Jason Witten (Dal) Compared to other TEs like Owen Daniels (5 TDs), Visanthe Shiancoe (5 TDs), and even Ben Watson (4 TDs) Witten has been a disappointment with only 1 TD thus far. However he's still on track for 80-90 catches and with his chemistry with Tony Romo, I can see him easily scoring 5-6 TDs the rest of the way. Wouldn't give up on him just yet.
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Just Saying...
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IFFL Update
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 6 | 1 | 481 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 5 | 2 | 434 |
| Buckeye Wrecking Crew | 5 | 2 | 424 |
| Miami Waves | 5 | 2 | 418 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 3 | 4 | 479 |
This week I face off against the Bruney Broncos, whose main weapons are Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, and Calvin Johnson (if he plays). It's a week where everyone in the Glory Division plays someone from the pathetic Power Division and I NEED the Power Division to pull some upsets ... except against me of course.
My lineup for the week:
| TMQB | Dallas (Tony Romo) | vs. Seattle |
| RB | Chris Johnson (Tenn) | vs. Jacksonville |
| WR | Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) | @ Tennessee |
| WR | Devin Hester (Chic) | vs. Cleveland |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | vs. NY Giants |
| WR | Mario Manningham (NYG) | @ Philadelphia |
| PK | Ryan Longwell (Min) | @ Green Bay |
| DST | New York Jets | vs. Miami |
My options are limited at WR with Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco on bye, but I am tempted to replace Manningham with LeSean McCoy or Felix Jones. Something for me to ponder before the weekend.
Was another great fantasy week for me, going 4-1 again with only loss in the Total Dynasty League.
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Fantasy Monsters and Evil Clowns for Week 8
Here are some monsters that should help you ravage the competition this week:
RB Steven Jackson (Stl @Detroit) If he can't score a TD or two against the Lions, I don't know WHO he can! Even with teams stacking to stop him he's managed to be among the top five in rushing yards. This is a good week to have him in your lineup.
RB Darren Sproles (SD vs. Oakland) If you watched the Raiders / Jets game like I did, you saw them give up over 300 yards rushing to Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and company. LT will get his touches, but how much you want to bet Sproles will rip off at least one long run for a score?
QB Bret Favre (Minn @ Green Bay) Think Favre won't be fired up for this one? Think the Lambeau Field chaos will rattle him in any way whatsoever? I don't. I think he will put on a clinic just like he did against them on Monday Night a few weeks ago.
WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac @ Tenn) Tennessee's secondary is just plain awful. I doubt the bye week helped to improve them much. Walker has developed great chemistry with QB David Garrard and is a playmaker. A must start.
And now some evil clowns that will give you nightmares if they are in your lineup:
WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia @ NY Jets) Did you see him drop two passes against the Saints that would have been big plays? I don't believe he will have many looks after that ... and will be covered by either Darrell Revis or Lito Sheppard. Fuggetaboutit!
QB Matt Hasselbeck (Sea @ Dallas) The Cowboys defense came alive the last two games getting to the QB. Seahawks O-line aging. Result will not be good for Hasselbeck.
RB Ryan Grant (GB vs. Minn) He's going to have a rough afternoon against the Williams duo (Pat and Kevin). Expect the Packers to have to pass against the Vikings late in the game and abandon the run early.
RB Pierre Thomas (NO vs. Atl) Where did he go? Mike Bell and Reggie Bush getting majority of touches in the red zone all of a sudden. Time to step back and watch this situation.
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Have a safe and very Happy Halloween!
Friday, October 23, 2009
Week 7 Ramblings: Stud Edition
A very good week for me in fantasy football. Went 4-1 with my only loss coming in the Total Dynasty League. This ran my records to 4-2 (IFFL), 4-2 (FFTwitter), 4-2 (RapidDraft), 3-3 (16 Man Brawl), and 2-4 (Total Dynasty). Almost to the halfway point in the season and things still looking positive for the most part.
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Icon Fantasy Football League Update
Defeated The Toronto Tigers 77-61 and squeezed into fourth place in Glory Division.
However, I did not make up a lot of points, still way behind in that category. This week saw me attempt to trade for Tom Brady, but to no avail. Also dropped the disappointing Beanie Wells for RB Laurence Maroney, who I will start this week against Tampa Bay in London.
My opponent, for the second time this year, will be John Hatfield and his undefeated Green Bay Dynasty. His main weapons this week... a buttload of Colts (Manning, Wayne, Collie and Indy DST), Marion Barber, and Roddy White. If by some miracle, the Rams can hold the Colts to say ... three TDs .. I may have a small chance. My lineup for the week should look like this:
I'm hoping the Patriots have another huge game across the pond in London against the Bucs. They may be my best bet to win this game. It would be nice if Romo had a good game against the Falcons, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Manningham keeps scoring TDs when I bench him but not when I start him. McNabb finally started throwing DeSean Jackson the ball last week, but it might be harder to do so against a stingy Redskin defense. Overall, I'm not feeling very confident this week. I really would like to beat the Dynasty for once, but I have a bad feeling it won't happen this year ... again. I hope I'm wrong.
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Start Your Studs?
This week brought an interesting debate over whether as fantasy owners we should always start our studs no matter what the matchups might otherwise tempt us to do. I have always favored the concept of starting my top guys over a good matchup spot-start, but others would argue you have a better chance to win if you play the matchups.
While there are never any absolutes in fantasy football there ARE reasons we draft certain players high. It's because we know they are capable of putting up great numbers and helping us win fantasy games on a week to week basis. The risk involved in starting a lesser player just because he has a great matchup against a weak defense is just too high for my blood.
A prime example: In Week 5 we saw Atlanta at San Francisco. Going into the week there were some who considered Michael Turner a risky start against the tough 49ers defense, and in foresight he probably was. But long term memory can be a fickle thing. Turner is a goal-line monster. 3 TDs against the Niners and anyone who benched him due to his "tough matchup" was cursing themselves.
Another example: This past week there was some hedging about Drew Brees going against the Giants top ranked defense. One person in my IFFL league even went so far as to bench him for David Garrard against a weak St. Louis defense. Two things wrong with this logic however: A)Jaguars actually have an offense that runs the ball to set up the pass and has an elite RB in Maurice Jones-Drew, which is why Garrard is considered a #2 QB on any fantasy roster. B) The Saints offense passes to set up the run, especially in a tight game against an opponent the caliber of the Giants. If you drafted Drew Brees early, you did so because of the high powered passing game. You did so because he has the ability to throw for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns against any team in the league. His bottom line against the Giants: 369 passing yards and 4 TDs. Garrard threw for over 300, but failed to register a score. Will Brees outscore Garrard EVERY week? No ... but he will MOST weeks.
In my opinion, there are three elite QBs who should never be benched regardless of the matchup: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers fall close(But not quite there)to this mark as well due to the passing games of their respective teams. There is no defense these guys can't dissect in any given week.
There are several RBs that should not be benched: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew (I'll be eating some crow about this one in a future post)and Chris Johnson. All have the big play ability that even the stoutest of defenses find hard to stop.
WRs? Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson. Again, their talent and knack for the big play make it a ridiculous prospect to even consider benching them, especially with capable QBs throwing to each of them.
But when does a stud stop being a must-start? Or more accurately .. when does a stud stop being a stud? There are exceptions to every "rule". Things do change afterall .. how do you know when it's time to bench your high pick? When is a slump too long? Personally, I give the player five to six games to get a good read on how weak his performance really is. Say I had drafted Matt Forte in the first round this year. His production has severely lacked in the first six weeks, only one TD and one 100 yard rushing day. Now is the time to think about whether to bench him for someone else. He has lost his stud statis for now and until he starts producing the numbers I think he's capable of, he's a risk in my lineup unless I have no better options.
Of course, this is all subjective to an owners personal opinion and other factors like past history or experience. But my stand on the matter of fantasy studs is you only bench them if there is a EXTREMELY good reason to.
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Studs, Duds, and Sleepers For Week 7
STUDS
RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Think Benson will be fired up to play the team that gave up on him? I do. Look for him to get a couple of scores and a give a lot of stiff arms.
RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Maroney finally got an opportunity to shine last week when Sammy Morris got hurt early against the Titans. This week against the Bucs in London he should have the same success he had against Tennessee and run for over 100 yards and a TD.
WR Vincent Jackson (SD) They've been burned by big play WRs all season. No reason Jackson won't be the next one to post huge numbers against them.
Philadelphia D/ST The Redskins have had trouble scoring against inferior defenses like the Rams and Chiefs. Just because someone else is calling the plays doesn't mean that will change against a much better Eagles squad.
DUDS
QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ) Raiders will harrass the young QB and force him into even more mistakes.
RB Chris Wells (Ari) Has been biggest rookie disappointment, even with a career high number of touches last week. Hightower gets all of the red-zone touches anyway.
RB Marshawn Lynch (Buff) Not getting the touches he did last year. Fred Jackson earned his right to split time in first few weeks.
WR Santana Moss (Wash) Don't expect a long TD against the Eagles, which seems to be the only way Moss ever scores.
SLEEPERS
RB Steven Jackson (STL) Hard to label him a sleeper, but after zero TDs so far, the streak has to come to an end sometime. Colts run defense average.
RB Chester Taylor (Minn) Steelers will be focused on stopping AP and blitzing Favre. A few screen passes or draw plays to Taylor may be in the gameplan.
WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) If he plays, he would add a very needed set of hands to a dismal Raider passing game.
WR Michael Crabtree (SF) Why not? You know SF will need some sort of spark against the Texans. Maybe the rookie will surprise.
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Icon Fantasy Football League Update
Defeated The Toronto Tigers 77-61 and squeezed into fourth place in Glory Division.
| Glory Division | W | L | PS |
| Green Bay Dynasty | 6 | 0 | 424 |
| West Virginia Dolphins | 4 | 2 | 388 |
| Buckeye Wrecking Crew | 4 | 2 | 362 |
| Miami Waves | 4 | 2 | 319 |
| Pennsylvania PimpDaddies | 3 | 3 | 421 |
However, I did not make up a lot of points, still way behind in that category. This week saw me attempt to trade for Tom Brady, but to no avail. Also dropped the disappointing Beanie Wells for RB Laurence Maroney, who I will start this week against Tampa Bay in London.
My opponent, for the second time this year, will be John Hatfield and his undefeated Green Bay Dynasty. His main weapons this week... a buttload of Colts (Manning, Wayne, Collie and Indy DST), Marion Barber, and Roddy White. If by some miracle, the Rams can hold the Colts to say ... three TDs .. I may have a small chance. My lineup for the week should look like this:
| TMQB | Dallas (Tony Romo) | vs. Atlanta |
| RB | Laurence Maroney (NE) | @ Tampa Bay |
| WR | Randy Moss(NE) | @ Tampa Bay |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco (Cin) | vs. Chicago |
| WR | DeSean Jackson (Phil) | @ Washington |
| WR | Mario Manningham (NYG) | vs. Arizona |
| PK | Ryan Longwell (Min) | @ Pittsburgh |
| DST | New York Jets | @ Oakland |
I'm hoping the Patriots have another huge game across the pond in London against the Bucs. They may be my best bet to win this game. It would be nice if Romo had a good game against the Falcons, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Manningham keeps scoring TDs when I bench him but not when I start him. McNabb finally started throwing DeSean Jackson the ball last week, but it might be harder to do so against a stingy Redskin defense. Overall, I'm not feeling very confident this week. I really would like to beat the Dynasty for once, but I have a bad feeling it won't happen this year ... again. I hope I'm wrong.
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Start Your Studs?
This week brought an interesting debate over whether as fantasy owners we should always start our studs no matter what the matchups might otherwise tempt us to do. I have always favored the concept of starting my top guys over a good matchup spot-start, but others would argue you have a better chance to win if you play the matchups.
While there are never any absolutes in fantasy football there ARE reasons we draft certain players high. It's because we know they are capable of putting up great numbers and helping us win fantasy games on a week to week basis. The risk involved in starting a lesser player just because he has a great matchup against a weak defense is just too high for my blood.
A prime example: In Week 5 we saw Atlanta at San Francisco. Going into the week there were some who considered Michael Turner a risky start against the tough 49ers defense, and in foresight he probably was. But long term memory can be a fickle thing. Turner is a goal-line monster. 3 TDs against the Niners and anyone who benched him due to his "tough matchup" was cursing themselves.
Another example: This past week there was some hedging about Drew Brees going against the Giants top ranked defense. One person in my IFFL league even went so far as to bench him for David Garrard against a weak St. Louis defense. Two things wrong with this logic however: A)Jaguars actually have an offense that runs the ball to set up the pass and has an elite RB in Maurice Jones-Drew, which is why Garrard is considered a #2 QB on any fantasy roster. B) The Saints offense passes to set up the run, especially in a tight game against an opponent the caliber of the Giants. If you drafted Drew Brees early, you did so because of the high powered passing game. You did so because he has the ability to throw for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns against any team in the league. His bottom line against the Giants: 369 passing yards and 4 TDs. Garrard threw for over 300, but failed to register a score. Will Brees outscore Garrard EVERY week? No ... but he will MOST weeks.
In my opinion, there are three elite QBs who should never be benched regardless of the matchup: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers fall close(But not quite there)to this mark as well due to the passing games of their respective teams. There is no defense these guys can't dissect in any given week.
There are several RBs that should not be benched: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew (I'll be eating some crow about this one in a future post)and Chris Johnson. All have the big play ability that even the stoutest of defenses find hard to stop.
WRs? Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson. Again, their talent and knack for the big play make it a ridiculous prospect to even consider benching them, especially with capable QBs throwing to each of them.
But when does a stud stop being a must-start? Or more accurately .. when does a stud stop being a stud? There are exceptions to every "rule". Things do change afterall .. how do you know when it's time to bench your high pick? When is a slump too long? Personally, I give the player five to six games to get a good read on how weak his performance really is. Say I had drafted Matt Forte in the first round this year. His production has severely lacked in the first six weeks, only one TD and one 100 yard rushing day. Now is the time to think about whether to bench him for someone else. He has lost his stud statis for now and until he starts producing the numbers I think he's capable of, he's a risk in my lineup unless I have no better options.
Of course, this is all subjective to an owners personal opinion and other factors like past history or experience. But my stand on the matter of fantasy studs is you only bench them if there is a EXTREMELY good reason to.
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Studs, Duds, and Sleepers For Week 7
STUDS
RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Think Benson will be fired up to play the team that gave up on him? I do. Look for him to get a couple of scores and a give a lot of stiff arms.
RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Maroney finally got an opportunity to shine last week when Sammy Morris got hurt early against the Titans. This week against the Bucs in London he should have the same success he had against Tennessee and run for over 100 yards and a TD.
WR Vincent Jackson (SD) They've been burned by big play WRs all season. No reason Jackson won't be the next one to post huge numbers against them.
Philadelphia D/ST The Redskins have had trouble scoring against inferior defenses like the Rams and Chiefs. Just because someone else is calling the plays doesn't mean that will change against a much better Eagles squad.
DUDS
QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ) Raiders will harrass the young QB and force him into even more mistakes.
RB Chris Wells (Ari) Has been biggest rookie disappointment, even with a career high number of touches last week. Hightower gets all of the red-zone touches anyway.
RB Marshawn Lynch (Buff) Not getting the touches he did last year. Fred Jackson earned his right to split time in first few weeks.
WR Santana Moss (Wash) Don't expect a long TD against the Eagles, which seems to be the only way Moss ever scores.
SLEEPERS
RB Steven Jackson (STL) Hard to label him a sleeper, but after zero TDs so far, the streak has to come to an end sometime. Colts run defense average.
RB Chester Taylor (Minn) Steelers will be focused on stopping AP and blitzing Favre. A few screen passes or draw plays to Taylor may be in the gameplan.
WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) If he plays, he would add a very needed set of hands to a dismal Raider passing game.
WR Michael Crabtree (SF) Why not? You know SF will need some sort of spark against the Texans. Maybe the rookie will surprise.
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