Week 14 Rumblings

It's finally playoff time!! Good luck to all of you out there in fantasyland ... except to those who are playing ME! HOOOOO HOOO HOOO!!!!!
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Stock Watch For 2010

It's never too early to look ahead to the following season. And there are more than a few players whose 2010 seasons are up in the air. Could their fantasy stock rise? Could it fall? Is it a complete mystery? Here is a look at a select few who should have their production either significantly increase, decrease, or whose future is totally up in the air.

RISERS

WR Michael Crabtree (SF) To come in as late in the season as he did due to his holdout and be as much a part of the 49er's offense as he has is pretty telling. 32 catches for 406 yards in just seven games projects to about 70 catches and nearly 1000 yards. Next year, with a full off-season program under his belt and Alex Smith fully entrenched as the starter, I could see Crabtree as a strong #3 WR in fantasy lineups.

RB Justin Forsett (Sea) Forsett made the most of his opportunity when Julius Jones sat due to injury and is still getting a few touches, even catching a TD last week as the third down change of pace back. Next year there is a strong possibility of him beating Jones out of the starting RB job.

QB Chad Henne (Mia) Last week Henne had a breakout game against the Patriots, throwing for over 300 yards and 2 TDs. It seems like he's developed quite the rapport with WRs Davone Bess and rookie Brian Hartline. Next year, with Ronnie Brown a huge injury risk and Ricky Williams fountain youth running dry ... the team may have to lean more on it's passing game.... which could see Henne posting decent numbers.

RB Chris Jennings (Clev) Unless Jamal Lewis "pulls a Favre" and retires, then unretires ... Jennings could find himself in the starting lineup over RBs Harrison and James Davis for the Brwons. Unless the Browns take C.J. Spiller in the draft that is.

FALLERS

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) It's looking like the future Hall Of Famer jumped the shark in late 2007. He's done well for owners in TD only leagues this year, but yardage wise he will not hit 1000 yards rushing in a season for the first time in his career unless he averages more than 140 yards over the last three games. Next year, it's questionable whether he'll even be with the Chargers and may have to take a lesser role with another team.

RB Reggie Bush (NO) What can you say about Bush other than HUGE disappoinment? He can't stay healthy for a full season and even when he IS playing, he's Captain Sporadic ... getting the occasional two TD game but disappearing in others. With Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas both doing admirable jobs carrying the load, why would the Saints use Bush as anything other than a thrid down back and PR next year?

WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia) He's a first round bust that lost his chance to be a major impact player in the Dolphin passing game this year by dropping easy passes and running poor routes. Unless your league starts a KR/PR in 2010, I'd shy away from the former Buckeye.

QB Jason Campbell (Wash) He's actually suprised as far as decent numbers have been concerned. But the Redskins weren't sold on him to start the season ... and the team hasn't gotten any better. He might be the starter going into next year, but if the team drafts a QB in the first round and the season goes to hell quickly ... it might be over for Campbell.

ON THE BUBBLE?

WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) With the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in the Indy passing game, where does that leave the former first round pick? Injuries have ruined his season and allowed others to pass him by on the depth chart. Could he be traded and be a key cog in someone elses offense in 2010?

WR Terrell Owens (Buff) Will the Bills want to bring him back next year? If so, will T.O. WANT to come back? And in either case, will he still be effective at his age? You've got to keep in mind there will be a new HC and new OC for the Bills next year.

QB Jamarcus Russell (Oak) Will his benching a few weeks ago wake him up? The Raiders now have a plethora of potential pass catchers in Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, Chaz Shiliens, and even Darrius Heyward-Bey ... but has Bruce Gradkowski grabbed the starting QB job in a chokehold? If so ... where does that leave Russell? And the biggest question .. can he ever be a starting NFL QB?

QB Brady Quinn (Clev) He's shown glimpses this year but a lot of questions hang over the Browns as a whole. Will Mangini still be coach? Who will the new GM be? And will the Dawgs target a Jake Locker or Colt McCoy in the draft?
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IFFL UPDATE

A 63-38 victory over the Buckeye Wrecking Crew ups my record to 11-2 and all but eliminates the BWC from playoff contention, although they can still get in by beating the Green Bay Dynasty by 52 points or more. Improbable, but not impossible.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Miami Waves	11	2	868
Green Bay Dynasty	9	4	798
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	8	5	747
West Virginia Dolphins	7	6	762
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	5	8	883

This final week of the regualr season is almost meaningless to me. But to my opponent The Running Vikings it's a must win to get into the playoffs. I have mixed feelings about wanting my team to finish  12-2. If I score big this week, it could be a bad omen for the playoff game the following weekend. And I've seen it before ... the best team in the league has a huge game right before the playoffs ... then falls flat on it's face in the first round. The Vikings .. ironically enough ... is loaded with Minnesota players including Bret Favre, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and the Vikings DST. Add Steven Jackson and Vincent Jackson and you have the makings of a semi-dangerous lineup. My lineup for the week:

TMQB	Tony Romo (Dal TMQB)	vs. San Diego
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	vs. Detroit
RB	Laurence Maroney (NE)	vs. Carolina
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	@NY Giants
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	vs. Carolina
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	@ Minnesota
PK	Ryan Longwell (Minn)	vs. Cincinnati
DST	NY Jets	@ Tampa Bay

I won't be heartbroken if I lose, even though means my nine game winning streak comes to an end.

In the Fanatics 16 Man Brawl League, I have made the playoffs as the fifth seed and will be playing the fourth seeded Cape Fears. Off to a good start already as Rothlisberger did virtually nothing for him. Hoping for a big day from the Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection.

Twas The Night Before Kickoff: Week 13 Rumblings

Twas the night before kickoff
and in Santas's workshop

Old Santa was cursing
 at his tiny laptop.

When from the door,

there came such a rumble,
you would have thought that
Steve Slaton had fumbled

In burst Mr. Jingle,

Santa's Head Elf

who blustered like Jon Gruden,

 in spite of himself

"Santa come quick!"
"Rudolph's not well!"
"The veterinarian just told me,
it's a torn ACL!"

Just then Santa's visage
became like that of Bill Cowher
His cheeks got more rosy 
and his grimace quite sour.

"Not now Jingle!" he bellowed,
"Can't you see I'm quite tied up?"
"I'm trying to figure out
my fantasy lineups!"

"But Santa!" said Jingle,
you've been busy for WEEKS!"
"You've been in here so long
you're really starting to reek!"

"Have some cookies!" begged the elf
"Or you'll lose all that girth!"
"If you get any thinner,
you'll be Cris Collinsworth!"

"I'm in twelve leagues!" bellowed Santa
"And most of my teams stink!"
"But I know I can fix this,
I've just got to think!"

"I drafted Matt Forte six times,
and he's been a huge dud!"
"But of course most of the experts
thought he'd be a big stud!"

"Detroit's Calvin Johnson,
should have had a big year!"
"But instead he's been as useless
as a three legged reindeer!"

"Eddie Royal of the Broncos,
was to be my PPR giant!"
But like Cleveland's run defense,
he's been most unreliant!"

"I had Ronnie Brown,
and he started out buff!"
Oh why didn't I grab
Ricky Williams to handcuff?

"I traded Thomas Jones to the Easter Bunny,
for Kerry Collins and Westbrook!"
"One got a concussion,
the other ...the hook."

"MJD has shined brightly,
like a big Christmas tree!"
"But wow, did he screw me,
when he took that darn knee!!"

"Oh Santa." whined Jingle
"Must you be controversial?"
"We've got more problems out there,
than Peyton Manning has commercials!"

"Speaking of  Peyton Manning,"
said Saint Nick with a stutter,
"I should have drafted HIM,
instead of that bozo Jay Cutler!"

"And doggonit I knew it,
Miles Austin was a sleeper!"
"But I lost out on the waivers,
to the friggin Grim Reaper!"

"Mark Sanchez looked promising,
interceptions aside.."
"Just wish when I grabbed him,
he had learned how to SLIDE!!"

Jingle sighed in frustration,
then made a loud cackle,
he rushed and hit Santa,
with a horse collar tackle!

"Please Santa!" begged Jingle
"Just listen to me!"
"You'll make the playoffs!
I promise, you'll see!!"

"But we need you out there,

it's time for THE trip!"

"Like Ditka might say,

dude, get a grip!!"

Santa slowly got up,

then started to laugh ,

"You're right Jingle!" he said,

"Can't miss the first half!!"

"The sleigh's ready!" said Jingle.

"And I'll get your labtop."

"You can keep track of the scores,

and you won't have to stop!"

So Santa got dressed,

in his suit of bright red..

while visions of championships

danced in his head.

And as he departed the Pole,

he cried a mighty "HO HO HO!"

"Merry Christmas to all!"

"GO OCHOCINCO!!!!"

                                                                                                           By  Chris Carwile
                                                                                                            December 2009
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IFFL UPDATE

With a 63-38 victory over the Pennsylvania Pimpdaddies, combined with a Green Bay Dynasty loss, I have clinched a playoff spot and will have the opportunity to possibly repeat as IFFL Champion. Even though the Dynasty and Buckeye Wrecking Crew are both only two games behind me with two games remaining, they face each other in the final week of the regualr season, so there is no way they both can catch me.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Miami Waves	10	2	805
Green Bay Dynasty	8	4	753
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	8	4	708
West Virginia Dolphins	7	5	718
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	5	7	772

The remaining playoff spot is still up for grabs between the Green Bay Dynasty, Buckeye Wrecking Crew, and the West Virginia Dolphins. The Dolphins and Dynasty play each other this week while the Wrecking Crew faces my Miami Waves. While I won't spill any tears if I lose this game, I'm not going to lay down for the BWC, whose lineup will include Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, and Steve Smith (NYG). My lineup this week:

TMQB	Cincinnati (Carson Palmer)	vs. Detroit
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	@ Indianapolis
WR	Laurence Maroney (NE)	@ Miami
WR	Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)	vs. Houston
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	@ Miami
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	vs. Detroit
PK	Ryan Longwell (Minn)	@ Arizona
DST	Denver Broncos	@ Kansas City

With DeSean Jackson unlikely to play this week, I'm inserting a second RB. Maroney seems the best start, but I'm mulling LeSean McCoy as well and could make a last minute switch.



In two of my other leagues I'm having sucess as well. In the FFTwitter League (Yahoo!) I'm 9-3 and have clinched a playoff spot, while in the Fanatics 16 Man Brawl League I am 8-4 and on the cusp of making the playoffs. Need to win this week to get in though.

Week 12 Rumblings

The holidays are here!! We know what THAT means. Sitting in front of the TV watching football while we eat turkey and stuffing instead of with the rest of the family in the dining room! Why listen to grandpa regale us with stories of Thanksgiving during the Great Depression when we can listen to Joe Buck and Troy Aikman regale us their analysis of another Detroit Turkey Day one-sided contest? And all this talk about NOT having the Lions and Cowboys play on Thanksgiving every year? Forget it! Keep the tradition going! Someday the Lions will be better and the game will be more competitive. To me, Thanksgiving wouldn't be the same without the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.
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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS (Week 12)

-STUDS-
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. Det) If Brady Quinn of all people can have a career day against the Lions defense, can you imagine the numbers Aaron Rodgers will put up on national television against them? Can't think of a better way to celebrate a holiday then to watch your fantasy QB carve up a victory.

RB Joseph Addai (Ind @ Hou) He hasn't had a 100 yard rushing day yet this season, but he's the guy who gets the ball in the red zone. Houston's run defense is horrible and I like Addai to exploit that this week.

RB Justin Forsett (Sea @ Stl) The Rams defense is horrible. The Cardinals burned them for over 200 rushing yards last week. Forsett only had 9 yards against the Vikings last week but still managed to score a TD. If you were the owner that jumped on him on the waiver wire, this could be the week he pays big dividends.

WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin vs. Clev) Ocho has been quiet the last few weeks but he scored twice against the Browns in Cleveland earlier this year. He's due for a big game and if a rookie QB can throw five TDs against the Browns, you know Palmer will have a good game. I'm betting Ocho is the main beneficiary.

DUDS

QB Tony Romo (Dal vs. Oak) The Raiders can't defend the run but CAN defend the pass and rush the QB. Romo hurt his back last week making a tackle and I can't imagine him being 100% just four days afterwards. Either the Cowboys run the ball to beat the Raiders, or Romo is so ineffective we have a John Kitna sighting. Either way, Romo's numbers will be pedestrian at best.

RB Rashard Mendenhall (Pit @ Balt) I don't like any Steelers this week if Rothlisberger is not 100% But Ravens are going to be fired up at home against an opponent they know for SURE won't be a pushover. Despite two bad games against Cedric Benson, the Ravens are still 6th best against RBs. I expect them to hold Mendenhall to under 75 yards this week.

WR Calvin Johnson (Det vs. GB) He finally had a big game, but it came against the Browns. This week he'll be covered by Charles Woodson and have Dante Culpepper throwing to him.  Not a great recipe for fantasy points. If you don't want heartbreak to go with your Thanksgiving heartburn, leave him on the bench if you have better matchups elsewhere.

TE Kevin Boss (NYG @ Den) Denver has only allowed 2 TDs by tight ends so far this year. While Boss has been on a roll the last few weeks, he and Eli Manning will find the road tough to hoe in the Mile High City this Thanksgiving Day.

SLEEPERS

WR Brandon Gibson (Stl vs. Seattle) Gibson will be starting for the Rams this week due to injuries at WR. He's looked pretty good the last couple of games and is playing a Seattle defense third only to Tennessee and Jacksonville in giving up fantasy points to WRs.

QB Alex Smith (SF vs. Jac) He's been pretty good since taking over for Shaun Hill a few weeks ago. He has certainly built a good rhythm with TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree. The Jags are having a hard time preventing big plays in the passing game lately and this could be the week Smith explodes with huge numbers.

WR Kenny Britt (Tenn vs. Ariz) The rookie first round pick finally found the end zone for his first career TD catch last week. Arizona and Tennessee will be playing in a high scoring shootout on Sunday and Britt may be in line for another score or two from Vince Young, now that he has finally busted the TD cherry.
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JUST SAYING

The main float in the Oakland Thanksgiving Day Parade.

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IFFL UPDATE

With a climatic 49-41 victory over the West Virginia Dolphins, and losses by the Green Bay Dynasty and Buckeye Wrecking Crew I gained a cushion in the Glory Division playoff race. At 9-2 I am one game ahead of the Dynasty and two games in front of the Dolphins and Wrecking Crew.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Miami Waves	9	2	742
Green Bay Dynasty	8	3	690
West Virginia Dolphins	7	4	679
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	7	4	661
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	5	6	734

My opponent this week is the Pennsylvania PimpDaddies. Despite the record, this is a team to be feared, especially in this scoring system. QB Donavan McNabb, RBs Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams (Cedric Benson too if he's healthy), WRs Brandon Marshall, Hines Ward, and Miles Austin, and even TEs Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. It's amazing that this team is almost out of contention for a playoff spot.
My lineup for this pivotal division contest:

TMQB	Cincinnati (Carson Palmer)	vs. Cleveland
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	vs. Arizona
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	@ New Orleans
WR	Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)	@ San Francisco
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	vs. Washington
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	vs. Cleveland
PK	Ryan Longwell (Minn)	vs.Chicago
DST	Denver Broncos	vs. NY Giants

Tony Romo's back injury concerns me too much to start him on Thanksgiving, so I'll go with Palmer .. which is a favorable matchup against Cleveland. Again, I'm tempted to start LeSean McCoy but have no idea which WR to bench, so I'll stick with my four WR formation and gut it out.
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Week 11 Ramblings

We're coming up on the holidays which is always crunch time in NFL and fantasy football. This is the time where teams that are still in contention need to take a long look at their roster and make the critical decisions that can make or break their championship chances.  It's late third quarter baby! Time to pick up the pace!
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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS

I swear I had Ricky Williams pegged as a stud this week! Darn Thursday night games!!! Oh well ....

STUDS

RB  Pierre Thomas (NO @ TB) As hard as it is to gauge which Saints RB will do well in any given week,  Thomas is due for a big game. The Bucs defense 5th worse in points allowed to RBs and both Ronnie Brown (before going down for the year to an ACL) and Ricky Williams had success against them last week.

WR Hines Ward (Pit @ KC) Rothlisberger and company should bounce back quite nicely against the Chiefs defense. In a PPR scoring system, Ward should be gold.

RB Kevin Smith (Det vs. Clev) The Browns can't stop the run and if they can't score against the Lions, expect a heavy dose of running for Smith in the latter part of the game.

WR Anquan Boldin (Ariz vs. Stl) He's finally healthy and has a chip on his shoulder the size of a boulder. Watch him take it out on a weak Ram secondary.

DUDS

RB Ladell Betts (Wash @ Dal) His solid game last week was a direct product of the injury to Kyle Orton and the poor play of Chris Simms. Don't expect similar results against a stout Dallas defense.

RB Justin Forsett (Sea @ Minn) Another one week wonder who's going against a Vikings defense second to only the Steelers in points allowed to RBs.

WR Roddy White (Atl @ NYG) The Giants had a week to resolve their issues and will be coming out determined to end their losing streak. Without Michael Turner to keep the front seven of the Giants honest, keeping White in check will be their number one goal.

WR Devin Hester (Chic vs. Phil) When CB Asante Samuels is on the field, the Eagles tend to neutralize a teams best WR. (See Vincent Jackson's stats from last week.)

SLEEPERS

RB Bernard Scott (Cin @ Oak) Only Buffalo gives up more points to RBs than the Raiders. Cedric Benson is hurting so Scott will be seeing more touches for the time being. Worth a flyer start in a deep league.

WR Muhammad Massaquoi (Clev @ Det) You would think Cleveland could get at least ONE offensive TD against the Lions defense, right? Why not the #1 WR?

WR Kenny Britt (Tenn @ Hou) The Titan are going to have to score a lot of points to keep up with the Texans, and Chris Johnson won't be able to do it by himself. (Although I really hope he DOES) Britt is going to see a few more targets with Justin Gage banged up.

QB Josh Freeman (TB vs. NO) I'm apparently really liking rookies as sleepers this week. Freeman has played exceptionally well in his first two games, throwing four TDs against fairly decent defenses. Saints defense is tough but have some injuries in the secondary.

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IFFL UPDATE

With a 76 - 61 victory over the Delaware Enforcers my record improves to 8-2 and I maintained first place in the Glory Division. But because the Green Bay Dynasty, West Virginia Dolphins, and Buckeye Wrecking Crew all won as well ... the traffic jam continues. The good news is.. I now have a cushion in points, leading by 48 over the Dynasty, by 60 over the Dolphins, and by 100 over the Wrecking Crew.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Miami Waves	8	2	693
Green Bay Dyansty	8	2	645
West Virginia Dolphins	7	3	638
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	7	3	593
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	4	6	682

With my next three games against division opponents, I need to keep my winning streak going. This week is a rematch with the West Virginia Dolphins. Not an easy one though, with Dolphins RB Maurice Jones-Drew going against a weak Buffalo defense. Hopefully Chris Johnson can counter MJD's production. My probable lineup:

TMQB	Dallas (Tony Romo)	vs. Washington
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	@ Houston
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	vs. NY Jets
WR	Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)	vs. Buffalo
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	@ Chicago
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	@ Oakland
PK	Ryan Longwell (Minn)	vs. Seattle
DST	Denver Broncos	vs. San Diego

After Sims-Walker scored this past week, I'm not benching him again this year. Most likely the lineup I start this week will be the one I go with the rest of the way. Even though I have good backups in LeSean McCoy, Laurence Maroney, and Devin Hester I can't see any reason I'd need to start them barring injury. If this was a standard scoring system I might consider it, but with the bonus points I get for long TDs,  all of these guys need to stay.
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GO BUCKS!!!!!

Good luck tomorrow Buckeyes!! Beat Michigan for the seventh straight time!

Week 10 Ramblings

This has been a very hectic week so this version of 4th and 37 will be a bit short. Consider this my "Bye Week".

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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS

STUDS

RB Ray Rice (Bal) Cleveland's defense will have no chance of stopping Rice on the ground OR in the passing game. I expect at least over 150 total yards of offense for the second year RB from Rutgers.

WR Wes Welker (NE) Randy Moss should have a big day too, but in what I think will be an offensive shootout in Indy, Tom Brady will have to pass at least 40 times. Welker should get 10 or more catches and at least 100 yards.

WR Percy Harvin (Minn) The speedy rookie should have a big day against a slow Detroit defensive backfield. Could have another KR score to boot.

DST Dallas Cowboys If your scoring system takes sacks into account, this is almost a must-start with Green Bay's meek pass protection. DeMarcus Ware also a definitve start as an IDP.

DUDS

WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) Jets and CB Darrell Revis pretty good at shutting down opposing #1 WRs. QB David Garrard pretty good at NOT finding his WRs on the road.

RB Julius Jones (Sea) This is the week the Arizona Cardinals will actually look dominant at home. They'll get off to a fast start, making Jones virtually useless in the second half.

QB Josh Freeman (TB) Last week the rookie looked good, but was aided by a opportunistic Tampa D. This week his learning curve gets quite a bit steeper against the Dolphins.

SLEEPERS

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det)  The Vikings are suprisingly the worst in the league at defending against the tight end. The Detroit rookie finally started getting some looks last week in Seattle with 7 catches for 70 yards and a TD. Expect more of the same this week.

WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) Raiders need a boost in the passing game and his hands can provide it. Chiefs pass defense among the worst in the league. Could have a nice welcome back game.

DST Kansas City On the other hand, Raider QB Jamarcus Russell very sloppy with the ball and could turn it over three or four times, giving Chief defenders gift TDs.

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IFFL UPDATE

With a big 102-47 win over the West Virginia Dolphins I vaulted into first place in the Glory Division thanks to the Pennsylvania PimpDaddies upsetting the Green Bay Dynasty. My last three games have been huge point scorers and have allowed me to catch up after being way behind early on.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Miami Waves	7	2	617
Green Bay Dyansty	7	2	574
West Virginia Dolphins	6	3	575
Buckete Wrecking Crew	6	3	540
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	4	5	623

Up this week are the 3-6 Delaware Enforcers, who have QB Tom Brady,  RB Pierre Thomas,  WR Marques Colston, and WR Wes Welker as it's main weapons. My lineup will look like this:

TMQB	Dallas (Tony Romo)	@ Green Bay
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	vs. Buffalo
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	@ Indianapolis
WR	Devin Hester (Chic)	@ San Francisco
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	@ San Diego
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	@ Pittsburgh
PK	Nick Folk (Dal)	@ Green Bay
DST	Denver Broncos	@ Washington

Since this is Saturday, Devin Hester has already played and knotted me a big goose egg. This doesn't bode well for me. If Brady hooks up with Welker a lot and not Randy Moss, I could be in big trouble.
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GO BUCKS!!!

Whoooo hooo! Go Bucks!! With the win over Iowa today, the Ohio State Buckeyes are finally going to a Rose Bowl after 12 years!!! A win against Michigan this week will be icing on the cake!! O-H-I-O!!!

Week 9 Ramblings

EATING CROW

Maurice Jones-Drew is making me eat my words. Before the season started I was shocked at how highly ranked he was in fantasy projections and aghast that in some drafts he was even going first overall. I didn't see him as a #1 RB, let alone worthy enough to be taken with the very first pick. 8 weeks later he leads the NFL in rushing TDs with ten and is gaining 5.5 yards per carry. His EIGHT carry game last week against the Titans netted him over 170 yards rushing. Yikes! My comments about him being a Darren Sproles/Leon Washington type that could not function as a lone feature back in an NFL offense was obviously very narrow minded. And the fact that he's only 5'8" has nothing to do with his abilities or his toughness.

Normally I wouldn't bother admitting I was wrong, but this one was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off. Although I did say he wouldn't make it through the season and the season is not over yet ... I have a feeling he'll be just fine for the remainder. Pass me a wing please.

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STUDS, DUDS, AND SLEEPERS: WEEK 9

STUDS

QB Aaron Rodgers (GB @ TB) The Packers are ticked about losing to the Vikings again. Rodgers going to come into this week with a chip on his shoulder. Look for him to take it out on a very bad Tampa D.

RB Frank Gore (SF vs. Tenn) Okay, if Maurice Jones-Drew and light up the Titan run defense with just eight carries, think about the damage Gore can do with a steady workload. Gore already has three TD runs of 50 yards or longer.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac vs. KC) Speaking of MJD ... again .... KC's run defense not much better than Tennessee's. I suspect Jones-Drew will get more than eight touches this time.

WR Randy Moss (NE vs. Mia) Two rookie CBs starting for the Dolphins, need I say more?

DST New Orleans Jake Delhomme avoided turnovers last week in Arizona .... but an opportunistic Saints defense has a pretty good chance of scoring again on an INT return.

DUDS

QB Matt Schaub (Hou @ Ind) The loss of Owen Daniels is a huge blow to this offense. There's only so many times you can throw it to Andre Johnson.

RB Ronnie Brown (Mia @ NE) Think the Patriots have forgotten how Brown singlehandedly destroyed them in Gillette Stadium last year? Nope. Think they'll let it happen again? Nope. Can you say "Mildcat"?

RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Benson was the first RB to hit the Ravens with a 100 yard rushing day in almost two years back in week 4. The Ravens came out of the bye week breathing fire and lit Denver up .... stopping Benson from doing it again will be a top priority.

WR Miles Austin (Dal @ Phil) CBs Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown have a knack for countering a team's best WR. If Austin HAS been playing over his head ... this is the game he comes back to earth.

WR Antonio Bryant (TB vs. GB) With a rookie QB vs. CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris? No thanks, I'll pass.

SLEEPERS

RB Jamaal Charles (KC @ Jac) Getting the start and has the speed to break one. With what Chris Johnson did to the Jags defense last week, Charles could make a play or two.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF vs. Tenn) Has had two weeks to warm up and has looked good doing it. Could see his first score against a weak Titans secondary.

WR Malcolm Floyd (SD @ NYG) Giants d-backs are beat up. Chris Chambers has hit the road. Floyd has a chance for some big things in the Meadowlands.

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IFFL UPDATE

Improved my record to 6-2, gained some ground in total points scored, and slid into third place in the Glory Division with a 97-55 victory over the Bruney Broncos. Chris Johnson's huge game was the difference. This week is a HUGE matchup against the division rival West Virginia Dolphins, who are also 6-2 and just a few points ahead of me.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Green Bay Dynasty	7	1	546
West Virginia Dolphins	6	2	528
Miami Waves	6	2	515
Buckete Wrecking Crew	5	3	471
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	3	5	533

Dolphins owner Roger Miller is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet, but his luck in fantasy football has been atrocious over the years. This is his best start ever and while I wish I could root for him ... NOT THIS WEEK ROG! The Dolphins have QB Matt Ryan, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Steve Slaton, and WR Andre Johnson as it's main weapons. My lineup should lok like this:

TMQB	Cincinnati (Carson Palmer)	vs. Baltimore
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	@ San Francisco
WR	Randy Moss (NE)	vs. Miami
WR	Devin Hester (Chic)	vs. Arizona
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	vs. Dallas
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	vs. Baltimore
PK	Nick Folk (Dal)	@ Philadelphia
DST	Denver Broncos	vs. Pittsburgh

I do have other options to consider. Should I start Romo @Philadelphia over Palmer at QB? Should I start Laurence Maroney vs. Miami or Mike Sims-Walker vs. KC (both good matchups) instead of Hester? This IS a key game. If I win I move up into second place and gain leverage in the run to the playoffs, if I lose I risk falling back into fourth and having to play catch up all over again. I play the Dolphins again in two weeks and need to at least split with them to keep up.

Ramblings Week 8: House Of Horrors

It's mid-season for fantasy football owners and while there have been many happy returns on such players as Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Wayne, and others ... there have been many horrors as well. Players who were drafted high but so far have been huge letdowns. What's the outlook for some of these players who have had nightmarish first halves. Will they rise from the grave or continue to plummet into the depths of fantasy hell?

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RB Matt Forte (Chic)  If you drafted him, it was most likely in the early first round. Are you gritting your teeth yet? He's only had one game of 100 yards and one TD (vs. Detroit).  The only favorable match-ups left on the schedule are this week vs. Cleveland and in Week 13 against the Rams. The Bears play the Lions in Week 17 and that most likely won't help you. If he DOES go off on the Browns this week, SELL HIGH and trade him because his struggles will continue afterwards.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) After watching him try several times to get into the end zone against the Chiefs and failing, it's clear LT has lost a step or two. He's already missed two games to injury and had only one TD to his credit this year. However, hope is not lost if you look at his schedule. Oakland's swiss cheese run defense gives him one last chance to stay in your starting lineup this week. He also has good match-ups in Weeks 12 and 13 (Chiefs and Browns). And if he does manage to turn it around, he could be very valuable if  you make it to "Championship Week 17" where the Chargers play the hapless Titans.

WR Steve Smith (Car) With solid match-ups the last three games and nothing to show for it, Smith is an obvious bench candidate. He has zero touchdowns in his first five games. With the way Jake Delhomme is playing and a really rough schedule, it's unlikely we'll be seeing much production here. You might want to look elsewhere.

WR Terrell Owens (Buff) The outlook is bleak here as well. Buffalo's QBs do not have the arms to get the ball deep to T.O. and the aging Owens seems to have lost the ability to make tacklers miss and get any YAC. You might want to consider spot starting him in Weeks 10 and 14 against the Titans and Chiefs, but other than that, forget the popcorn.

WR Anquan Boldin (Ariz) Injuries have once again hampered Boldin this year, but he's always had the knack for bouncing back from them. The Cardinal's schedule is too juicy (especially in Weeks 16 and 17) to give up on him just yet. Be patient and I think you'll be glad you did come Week 10 and beyond.

WR Roy Williams (Dal) He was supposed to take T.O.'s place as the #1 WR. Didn't work out that way however as Miles Austin came out of nowhere too put up humongous numbers. Williams only has 12 catches and one TD ... having as much value as he did last year in Dallas. The Cowboys schedule doesn't get a lot easier and Williams is battling injuries.  Find a replacement for him in your lineup if you can.

TE Jason Witten (Dal) Compared to other TEs like Owen Daniels (5 TDs), Visanthe Shiancoe (5 TDs), and even Ben Watson (4 TDs) Witten has been a disappointment with only 1 TD thus far. However he's still on track for 80-90 catches and with his chemistry with Tony Romo, I can see him easily scoring 5-6 TDs the rest of the way. Wouldn't give up on him just yet.
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Just Saying...

   Dan Synder could easily go as PC from the PC and Mac commericals for Halloween.
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IFFL Update

  Yo Adrian, I did it!!!! Finally a win against my arch-rival John Hatfield and his Green Bay Dynasty! Knocked the Dynasty off of the ranks of unbeaten 99-57. Huge division win and a great 5-2 first half! However, despite the win I am still amazingly in fourth place in the division. The good news is I made up some ground in points thanks to big games from Tony Romo, Chad Ochocinco, and DeSean Jackson. I'm only 16 points back from the West Virginia Dolphins who currently hold the number two spot.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Green Bay Dynasty	6	1	481
West Virginia Dolphins	5	2	434
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	5	2	424
Miami Waves	5	2	418
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	3	4	479

  This week I face off against the Bruney Broncos, whose main weapons are Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, and Calvin Johnson (if he plays). It's a week where everyone in the Glory Division plays someone from the pathetic Power Division and I NEED the Power Division to pull some upsets ... except against me of course.

My lineup for the week:

TMQB	Dallas (Tony Romo)	vs. Seattle
RB	Chris Johnson (Tenn)	vs. Jacksonville
WR	Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)	@ Tennessee
WR	Devin Hester (Chic)	vs. Cleveland
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	vs. NY Giants
WR	Mario Manningham (NYG)	@ Philadelphia
PK	Ryan Longwell (Min)	@ Green Bay
DST	New York Jets	vs. Miami

My options are limited at WR with Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco on bye, but I am tempted to replace Manningham with LeSean McCoy or Felix Jones. Something for me to ponder before the weekend.

Was another great fantasy week for me, going 4-1 again with only loss in the Total Dynasty League.

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Fantasy Monsters and Evil Clowns for Week 8

Here are some monsters that should help you ravage the competition this week:

RB Steven Jackson (Stl @Detroit) If he can't score a TD or two against the Lions, I don't know WHO he can! Even with teams stacking to stop him he's managed to be among the top five in rushing yards. This is a good week to have him in your lineup.

RB Darren Sproles (SD vs. Oakland) If you watched the Raiders / Jets game like I did, you saw them give up over 300 yards rushing to Thomas Jones,  Shonn Greene, and company. LT will get his touches, but how much you want to bet Sproles will rip off at least one long run for a score?

QB Bret Favre (Minn @ Green Bay) Think Favre won't be fired up for this one? Think the Lambeau Field chaos will rattle him in any way whatsoever? I don't. I think he will put on a clinic just like he did against them on Monday Night a few weeks ago.

WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac @ Tenn) Tennessee's secondary is just plain awful. I doubt the bye week helped to improve them much. Walker has developed great chemistry with QB David Garrard and is a playmaker. A must start.

And now some evil clowns that will give you nightmares if they are in your lineup:

WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia @ NY Jets) Did you see him drop two passes against the Saints that would have been big plays? I don't believe he will have many looks after that ... and will be covered by either Darrell Revis or Lito Sheppard. Fuggetaboutit!

QB Matt Hasselbeck (Sea @ Dallas) The Cowboys defense came alive the last two games getting to the QB. Seahawks O-line aging. Result will not be good for Hasselbeck.

RB Ryan Grant (GB vs. Minn) He's going to have a rough afternoon against the Williams duo (Pat and Kevin). Expect the Packers to have to pass against the Vikings late in the game and abandon the run early.

RB Pierre Thomas (NO vs. Atl) Where did he go? Mike Bell and Reggie Bush getting majority of touches in the red zone all of a sudden. Time to step back and watch this situation.
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    Have a safe and very Happy Halloween!

Week 7 Ramblings: Stud Edition

A very good week for me in fantasy football. Went 4-1 with my only loss coming in the Total Dynasty League. This ran my records to 4-2 (IFFL), 4-2 (FFTwitter), 4-2 (RapidDraft), 3-3 (16 Man Brawl), and 2-4 (Total Dynasty). Almost to the halfway point in the season and things still looking positive for the most part.

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Icon Fantasy Football League Update

Defeated The Toronto Tigers 77-61 and squeezed into fourth place in Glory Division.

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Green Bay Dynasty	6	0	424
West Virginia Dolphins	4	2	388
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	4	2	362
Miami Waves	4	2	319
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	3	3	421

However, I did not make up a lot of points, still way behind in that category. This week saw me attempt to trade for Tom Brady, but to no avail. Also dropped the disappointing Beanie Wells for RB Laurence Maroney, who I will start this week against Tampa Bay in London.

My opponent, for the second time this year, will be John Hatfield and his undefeated Green Bay Dynasty. His main weapons this week... a buttload of Colts (Manning, Wayne, Collie and Indy DST), Marion Barber, and Roddy White. If by some miracle, the Rams can hold the Colts to say ... three TDs .. I may have a small chance. My lineup for the week should look like this:

TMQB	Dallas (Tony Romo)	vs. Atlanta
RB	Laurence Maroney (NE)	@ Tampa Bay
WR	Randy Moss(NE)	@ Tampa Bay
WR	Chad Ochocinco (Cin)	vs. Chicago
WR	DeSean Jackson (Phil)	@ Washington
WR	Mario Manningham (NYG)	vs. Arizona
PK	Ryan Longwell (Min)	@ Pittsburgh
DST	New York Jets	@ Oakland

I'm hoping the Patriots have another huge game across the pond in London against the Bucs. They may be my best bet to win this game. It would be nice if Romo had a good game against the Falcons, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Manningham keeps scoring TDs when I bench him but not when I start him. McNabb finally started throwing DeSean Jackson the ball last week, but it might be harder to do so against a stingy Redskin defense. Overall, I'm not feeling very confident this week. I really would like to beat the Dynasty for once, but I have a bad feeling it won't happen this year ... again. I hope I'm wrong.


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Start Your Studs?

This week brought an interesting debate over whether as fantasy owners we should always start our studs no matter what the matchups might otherwise tempt us to do. I have always favored the concept of starting my top guys over a good matchup spot-start, but others would argue you have a better chance to win if you play the matchups.

While there are never any absolutes in fantasy football there ARE reasons we draft certain players high. It's because we know they are capable of putting up great numbers and helping us win fantasy games on a week to week basis. The risk involved in starting a lesser player just because he has a great matchup against a weak defense is just too high for my blood.

A prime example: In Week 5 we saw Atlanta at San Francisco. Going into the week there were some who considered Michael Turner a risky start against the tough 49ers defense, and in foresight he probably was. But long term memory can be a fickle thing. Turner is a goal-line monster. 3 TDs against the Niners and anyone who benched him due to his "tough matchup" was cursing themselves.

Another example: This past week there was some hedging about Drew Brees going against the Giants top ranked defense. One person in my IFFL league even went so far as to bench him for David Garrard against a weak St. Louis defense. Two things wrong with this logic however: A)Jaguars actually have an offense that runs the ball to set up the pass and has an elite RB in Maurice Jones-Drew, which is why Garrard is considered a #2 QB on any fantasy roster. B) The Saints offense passes to set up the run, especially in a tight game against an opponent the caliber of the Giants. If you drafted Drew Brees early, you did so because of the high powered passing game. You did so because he has the ability to throw for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns against any team in the league. His bottom line against the Giants: 369 passing yards and 4 TDs. Garrard threw for over 300, but failed to register a score. Will Brees outscore Garrard EVERY week? No ... but he will MOST weeks.

In my opinion, there are three elite QBs who should never be benched regardless of the matchup: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers fall close(But not quite there)to this mark as well due to the passing games of their respective teams. There is no defense these guys can't dissect in any given week.

There are several RBs that should not be benched: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew (I'll be eating some crow about this one in a future post)and Chris Johnson. All have the big play ability that even the stoutest of defenses find hard to stop.

WRs? Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson. Again, their talent and knack for the big play make it a ridiculous prospect to even consider benching them, especially with capable QBs throwing to each of them.

But when does a stud stop being a must-start? Or more accurately .. when does a stud stop being a stud? There are exceptions to every "rule". Things do change afterall .. how do you know when it's time to bench your high pick? When is a slump too long? Personally, I give the player five to six games to get a good read on how weak his performance really is. Say I had drafted Matt Forte in the first round this year. His production has severely lacked in the first six weeks, only one TD and one 100 yard rushing day. Now is the time to think about whether to bench him for someone else. He has lost his stud statis for now and until he starts producing the numbers I think he's capable of, he's a risk in my lineup unless I have no better options.

Of course, this is all subjective to an owners personal opinion and other factors like past history or experience. But my stand on the matter of fantasy studs is you only bench them if there is a EXTREMELY good reason to.


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Studs, Duds, and Sleepers For Week 7

STUDS

RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Think Benson will be fired up to play the team that gave up on him? I do. Look for him to get a couple of scores and a give a lot of stiff arms.

RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Maroney finally got an opportunity to shine last week when Sammy Morris got hurt early against the Titans. This week against the Bucs in London he should have the same success he had against Tennessee and run for over 100 yards and a TD.

WR Vincent Jackson (SD) They've been burned by big play WRs all season. No reason Jackson won't be the next one to post huge numbers against them.

Philadelphia D/ST The Redskins have had trouble scoring against inferior defenses like the Rams and Chiefs. Just because someone else is calling the plays doesn't mean that will change against a much better Eagles squad.

DUDS

QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ) Raiders will harrass the young QB and force him into even more mistakes.

RB Chris Wells (Ari) Has been biggest rookie disappointment, even with a career high number of touches last week. Hightower gets all of the red-zone touches anyway.

RB Marshawn Lynch (Buff) Not getting the touches he did last year. Fred Jackson earned his right to split time in first few weeks.

WR Santana Moss (Wash) Don't expect a long TD against the Eagles, which seems to be the only way Moss ever scores.

SLEEPERS

RB Steven Jackson (STL) Hard to label him a sleeper, but after zero TDs so far, the streak has to come to an end sometime. Colts run defense average.

RB Chester Taylor (Minn) Steelers will be focused on stopping AP and blitzing Favre. A few screen passes or draw plays to Taylor may be in the gameplan.

WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) If he plays, he would add a very needed set of hands to a dismal Raider passing game.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF) Why not? You know SF will need some sort of spark against the Texans. Maybe the rookie will surprise.
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Week 6 Ramblings

Went 3-2 this week, getting wins in IFFL (3-2), Total Dynasty (2-3), and RapidDraft (3-2). Lost in FFtwitter (3-2) and 16 Man Brawl League (2-3). Overall, a very average start. Would be nice to have ONE of my teams be 4-1 or even 5-0, but I guess I should be happy none of them are 1-4 or the dreaded 0-5.

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Icon Fantasy Football League Update
Squeaked out a 42-40 victory against the Delaware Enforcers to improve my record to 3-2 .... but as crazy as it may sound, I fell to LAST place in the Glory Division! This week was one of those where nobody played a game within their division. And OUR division won every game. It's incredible how these standings look after five weeks:

Power Division	W	L	PS
Bruney Broncos	2	3	283
Toronto Tigers	2	3	171
Cincinnati Superstars	1	4	246
Running Vikings	1	4	194
Delaware Enforcers	1	4	191

Now check out MY division:

Glory Division	W	L	PS
Green Bay Dynasty	5	0	360
Buckeye Wrecking Crew	4	1	321
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies	3	2	345
West Virginia Dolphins	3	2	296
Miami Waves	3	2	242

What really sucks about this is our playoff system takes the best two teams from each division, not the four best teams OVERALL. So if things keep going this way we could have two teams from one division with losing records make the playoffs and we could have two or three teams with winning records MISS the playoffs. So even with a winning record I'm a game out of the playoff chase and a LOT of points behind in tiebreakers. Not only do I need to win, I need to score some massive points and FAST.

This week I face my fiancee Penny and her Toronto Tigers (1-4). Toronto is currently dead last in Total Points Scored in the league, but get a lot of players back from a bye. Chicago TMQB (Jay Cutler), RB Matt Forte, RB Thomas Jones, and WR Anquan Boldin are the main weapons for the Tigers.

My lineup for the week COULD look like this:

TMQB Cincinnati (Carson Palmer) vs. Houston
RB Chris Johnson (Tenn) at New England
WR Randy Moss (NE) vs. Tennessee
WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin) vs. Houston
WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac) vs. St. Louis
WR Devin Hester (Chic) at Atlanta
PK Ryan Longwell (Minn) vs. Baltimore
DST NY Jets vs. Buffalo

My debate is between WRs Devin Hester, Mario Manningham (at New Orleans), or DeSean Jackson (at Oakland) as my fourth WR. The rest of my lineup is set in stone. I'm hoping Sims-Walker makes up for getting himself inactivated for being late to a meeting before last week's game.

Hester is facing the statistically weakest pass defense in Atlanta (22nd) so my initial thought is to start him. Was disappointed in Jackson only getting one catch last week and figure he will be covered by CB Nnamdi Asomugha who regularly shuts down #1 WRs. Manningham's touches have decreased since Hakeem Nicks has returned from injury. So if anyone out there reading this wants to chime in on their opinions of who they would start, I'm all ears.
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Week 6 Studs, Duds, and Sleepers


STUDS
WR Randy Moss (NE) Facing a weak Tennessee secondary that gives out passing yards like they are candy, Moss could have his first huge game of the year.

WR Braylon Edwards (NYJ) Only four days after being traded from Cleveland, Edwards had an impact for the Jets on Monday night, catching a TD, (Heheh, did I mention I predicted that?) Think about what an additional week of practice with QB Mark Sanchez and a matchup against a leaky Buffalo defense will do to possibly inflate his impact.

RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Benson is now the league's leading rusher going against a defense that very susceptible to the run.

QB Aaron Rodgers (GB) The Lions will have no answer for the strong armed QB. Detroit has allowed at least two passing TDs in every game so far.

DUDS
QB Joe Flacco (Bal) Flacco will have his hands full dodging the Vikings pass rush.

RB Steve Slaton (Hou) Not having the impact of last year thus far. Chris Brown being used as goal-line back. Plus, Bengals defense is getting stronger.

RB Fred Jackson (Buff) With Lynch back and offense grounding to a halt, his value has dropped off the face of the earth. Jets defense not a good relaunching point.

WR Laveranues Coles (Cin) Ochocinco, Andre Caldwell, and Chris Henry stepping up their games. Coles is fading into the background.

Sleepers
TE Jeremy Shockey (NO) The ex-Giant could go ballistic on his former team.

RB Michael Bush (Oak) If the Raiders want any chance to score points, they'll need to use him a lot.

WR Michael Jenkins (Atl) Has been quiet thus far, but is due for one of his sporatic 2 TD games.

DST Tampa Bay With Jake Delhomme throwing INTs and other Panthers fumbling the rock, we might just see a pick 6 or other defensive score.