Saturday, July 17, 2010

The Over And Under

A few notes on some players I think are getting stiffed or spoiled in value in fantasy rankings this year:

OVER

RB LeSean McCoy, Phil His current ADP has him going in the mid thirties and in the mid teens overall at the RB position. But with Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver stealing the short yardage and goal line carries and add the fact that Philadelphia is more of a pass first offense, I see McCoy as more of a RB3 than the RB2 he is being drafted as. Think of Julius Jones with the Cowboys a few years ago when Marion Barber was getting all of the red zone work. I'm thinking we might see a similar scenario this year in Philly.

RB Jahvid Best, Det Everyone is touting him as a Chris Johnson clone with big play ability. His ADP has him going anywhere from 3rd round to 5th round in most drafts. Some rankings I've seen have him rated in the top 20 overall at RB. And the fact that Kevin Smith most likely won't be 100% healthy for the start of the season makes him a tempting prospect to say the least. But my alarm goes off when I realize A) He has a serious history of injuries including a major concussion last year that damn near looked like it killed him and B) He plays behind a Lions O-Line that can barely open a ZipLoc bag let alone holes for anyone to run through. If you draft him as anything higher than a RB3, you've got more stones than I do.

WR Steve Smith, Car I've always been a big fan of his but let's look at the facts. 1) The Panthers will be a run-oriented offense with the tandem of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams carrying the bulk of the load. 2) Neither Matt Moore or rookie Jimmy Claussen have the experience or the deep throw to make use of Smith's speed. 3) Smith is an injury waiting to happen, whether it be on the NFL field, or the touch football field. While ADP projections have him going in the mid fourth round and mid teens overall at the WR ranks, I'm not going to draft him as anything more than a bench slot behind my starters.

UNDER

QB Carson Palmer, Cin Palmer had one of his worst seasons last year, especially towards the end. But this year I feel he will be back to 100% health and that the Bengals won't be relying on the running game quite as much. Antonio Bryant was a good pickup, but I think the two key aquisitions for the Bengals were in the draft. Namely TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, who both have trememdous pass catching skills. If you are going to wait for a quarterback until the 6-10th round, Palmer could be a steal.

WR Eddie Royal, Den He went from 91 catches, 980 yards, and 5 TDs in 2008 to totally irrelevant in 2009 with only 37-345 and zero touchdowns.But here's the good news: Brandon Marshall and his 205 catches the last two years is gone. Royal's 79 targets last year WILL go up, despite the presence of rookie Demarius Thomas who I do not believe will be fully ready for the start of the season. Jabar Gaffney will start opposite Royal but is not a WR#1 by any means. Whether it be Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, or Tim Tebow at the helm... the Bronco passing game is going to need to get the ball to Royal to succeed.

RB Felix Jones, Dal A lot of people are red flagging him as injury prone. And the presence of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice also lead detractors to believe he may not be someone to have in their starting lineups in 2009. But Jones tied Chris Johnson in YPC with 5.9 last year (granted, he only got a third of the carries that Johnson did) and can be a weapon in the passing game. He has big play ability that I would be willing to chance as RB2. Injury prone sminjury prone, if worst comes to worst I'll draft him high and get Choice or Barber as handcuff. The Dallas offense is going to be explosive this year and having a key guy like Jones on your roster will help you soar to the playoffs.