Friday, October 23, 2009

Week 7 Ramblings: Stud Edition

A very good week for me in fantasy football. Went 4-1 with my only loss coming in the Total Dynasty League. This ran my records to 4-2 (IFFL), 4-2 (FFTwitter), 4-2 (RapidDraft), 3-3 (16 Man Brawl), and 2-4 (Total Dynasty). Almost to the halfway point in the season and things still looking positive for the most part.

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Icon Fantasy Football League Update

Defeated The Toronto Tigers 77-61 and squeezed into fourth place in Glory Division.


Glory Division
W
L
PS
Green Bay Dynasty
6
0
424
West Virginia Dolphins
4
2
388
Buckeye Wrecking Crew
4
2
362
Miami Waves
4
2
319
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies
3
3
421

However, I did not make up a lot of points, still way behind in that category. This week saw me attempt to trade for Tom Brady, but to no avail. Also dropped the disappointing Beanie Wells for RB Laurence Maroney, who I will start this week against Tampa Bay in London.

My opponent, for the second time this year, will be John Hatfield and his undefeated Green Bay Dynasty. His main weapons this week... a buttload of Colts (Manning, Wayne, Collie and Indy DST), Marion Barber, and Roddy White. If by some miracle, the Rams can hold the Colts to say ... three TDs .. I may have a small chance. My lineup for the week should look like this:

TMQB
Dallas (Tony Romo)
vs. Atlanta
RB
Laurence Maroney (NE)
@ Tampa Bay
WR
Randy Moss(NE)
@ Tampa Bay
WR
Chad Ochocinco (Cin)
vs. Chicago
WR
DeSean Jackson (Phil)
@ Washington
WR
Mario Manningham (NYG)
vs. Arizona
PK
Ryan Longwell (Min)
@ Pittsburgh
DST
New York Jets
@ Oakland

I'm hoping the Patriots have another huge game across the pond in London against the Bucs. They may be my best bet to win this game. It would be nice if Romo had a good game against the Falcons, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Manningham keeps scoring TDs when I bench him but not when I start him. McNabb finally started throwing DeSean Jackson the ball last week, but it might be harder to do so against a stingy Redskin defense. Overall, I'm not feeling very confident this week. I really would like to beat the Dynasty for once, but I have a bad feeling it won't happen this year ... again. I hope I'm wrong.


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Start Your Studs?

This week brought an interesting debate over whether as fantasy owners we should always start our studs no matter what the matchups might otherwise tempt us to do. I have always favored the concept of starting my top guys over a good matchup spot-start, but others would argue you have a better chance to win if you play the matchups.

While there are never any absolutes in fantasy football there ARE reasons we draft certain players high. It's because we know they are capable of putting up great numbers and helping us win fantasy games on a week to week basis. The risk involved in starting a lesser player just because he has a great matchup against a weak defense is just too high for my blood.

A prime example: In Week 5 we saw Atlanta at San Francisco. Going into the week there were some who considered Michael Turner a risky start against the tough 49ers defense, and in foresight he probably was. But long term memory can be a fickle thing. Turner is a goal-line monster. 3 TDs against the Niners and anyone who benched him due to his "tough matchup" was cursing themselves.

Another example: This past week there was some hedging about Drew Brees going against the Giants top ranked defense. One person in my IFFL league even went so far as to bench him for David Garrard against a weak St. Louis defense. Two things wrong with this logic however: A)Jaguars actually have an offense that runs the ball to set up the pass and has an elite RB in Maurice Jones-Drew, which is why Garrard is considered a #2 QB on any fantasy roster. B) The Saints offense passes to set up the run, especially in a tight game against an opponent the caliber of the Giants. If you drafted Drew Brees early, you did so because of the high powered passing game. You did so because he has the ability to throw for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns against any team in the league. His bottom line against the Giants: 369 passing yards and 4 TDs. Garrard threw for over 300, but failed to register a score. Will Brees outscore Garrard EVERY week? No ... but he will MOST weeks.

In my opinion, there are three elite QBs who should never be benched regardless of the matchup: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers fall close(But not quite there)to this mark as well due to the passing games of their respective teams. There is no defense these guys can't dissect in any given week.

There are several RBs that should not be benched: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew (I'll be eating some crow about this one in a future post)and Chris Johnson. All have the big play ability that even the stoutest of defenses find hard to stop.

WRs? Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson. Again, their talent and knack for the big play make it a ridiculous prospect to even consider benching them, especially with capable QBs throwing to each of them.

But when does a stud stop being a must-start? Or more accurately .. when does a stud stop being a stud? There are exceptions to every "rule". Things do change afterall .. how do you know when it's time to bench your high pick? When is a slump too long? Personally, I give the player five to six games to get a good read on how weak his performance really is. Say I had drafted Matt Forte in the first round this year. His production has severely lacked in the first six weeks, only one TD and one 100 yard rushing day. Now is the time to think about whether to bench him for someone else. He has lost his stud statis for now and until he starts producing the numbers I think he's capable of, he's a risk in my lineup unless I have no better options.

Of course, this is all subjective to an owners personal opinion and other factors like past history or experience. But my stand on the matter of fantasy studs is you only bench them if there is a EXTREMELY good reason to.


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Studs, Duds, and Sleepers For Week 7

STUDS

RB Cedric Benson (Cin) Think Benson will be fired up to play the team that gave up on him? I do. Look for him to get a couple of scores and a give a lot of stiff arms.

RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Maroney finally got an opportunity to shine last week when Sammy Morris got hurt early against the Titans. This week against the Bucs in London he should have the same success he had against Tennessee and run for over 100 yards and a TD.

WR Vincent Jackson (SD) They've been burned by big play WRs all season. No reason Jackson won't be the next one to post huge numbers against them.

Philadelphia D/ST The Redskins have had trouble scoring against inferior defenses like the Rams and Chiefs. Just because someone else is calling the plays doesn't mean that will change against a much better Eagles squad.

DUDS

QB Mark Sanchez (NYJ) Raiders will harrass the young QB and force him into even more mistakes.

RB Chris Wells (Ari) Has been biggest rookie disappointment, even with a career high number of touches last week. Hightower gets all of the red-zone touches anyway.

RB Marshawn Lynch (Buff) Not getting the touches he did last year. Fred Jackson earned his right to split time in first few weeks.

WR Santana Moss (Wash) Don't expect a long TD against the Eagles, which seems to be the only way Moss ever scores.

SLEEPERS

RB Steven Jackson (STL) Hard to label him a sleeper, but after zero TDs so far, the streak has to come to an end sometime. Colts run defense average.

RB Chester Taylor (Minn) Steelers will be focused on stopping AP and blitzing Favre. A few screen passes or draw plays to Taylor may be in the gameplan.

WR Chaz Schilens (Oak) If he plays, he would add a very needed set of hands to a dismal Raider passing game.

WR Michael Crabtree (SF) Why not? You know SF will need some sort of spark against the Texans. Maybe the rookie will surprise.
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