Sunday, August 23, 2009

Random Rumblings IV

The season is starting to slowly creep upon us. Can you feel the excitement? The anticipation? Forget Christmas, THIS is the most wonderful time of the year!!!!
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Dynasty League Update

Well, I think things are settling down to where my current roster is complete. Might make another deal or two but for right now, this looks to be my future starting lineup:

QB: Jamarcus Russell (Oak)
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson: (SD)
WR1: Eddie Royal (Den)
WR2: Lee Evans (Buff)
TE: Kellen Winslow (TB)
Flex1: RB Donald Brown (Ind)
Flex2: WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia)

Return Specialist: WR Johnny Lee Higgins (Oak)
K: Mason Crosby (GB)
P: Andy Lee (SF)

DT: Sedrick Ellis (NO)
DE: Mario Williams (Hou)
DE: Dwight Freeney (Ind)
LB: Aaron Curry (Sea)
LB: Shawn Merriman (SD)
LB: Bradie James (Dal)
CB: Leodis McKelvin (Buff)
CB: Aqib Talib (TB)
S: Dawan Landry (Bal)
S: LaRon Landry (Sea)
Flex: LB Scott Fajita (NO)

Bench:

QB Joe Flacco (Bal)
RB Glen Coffee (SF)
RB Sammy Morris (NE)
RB Lamont Jordan (Den)
WR Justin Gage (Ten)
WR Robert Meachem (NO)
WR Johnny Lee Higgins (Oak)
TE Donald Lee (GB)

K Dan Carpenter (Mia)
P Brad Maynard (Chi)

DT Shaun Rogers (Clev)
DT Adam Carriker (Stl)
DT Sen'Derrick Marks (Ten)
DE Tyson Jackson (KC)
LB Vernon Gholston (NYJ)
CB Nnadami Asomugha (Oak)
CB Randall Gay (NO)
CB Usama Young (NO)
S James Sanders (NE)
S Gerald Sensabaugh (Dal)

Practice Squad:

QB Troy Smith (Bal)
WR Brain Hartline (Mia)
DE Lawrence Sidbury (Atl)
LB Marcus Freeman (Chic)

I don't expect this team to win much this year to be honest, but anything can happen. I may not have drafted the team, but I made trades to get a few players I liked. Eddie Royal, Donald Brown ... and hopefully Jamarcus Russell should be the backbone of my team in years to come.

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Bret Favre

I'm not surprised Favre changed his mind again. Now the question is, can he hold up for another full season? He has a good offensive line so he should be protected adequately. He has pretty decent weapons at all the skill positions. Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Chester Taylor, and Visanthe Shiancoe all go up in fantasy value as far as I'm concerned.

But the BIG winner will be Adrian Peterson. Teams will not be able to load seven or eight in the box to stop him because they have to take Favre into account. I could easily see All Day getting close to 2,000 yards rushing and double digit touchdowns. Peterson has just become THE #1 RB in fantasy, without a doubt. Anyone who DOESN'T take him first overall in standard scoring systems is a fool.

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Preseason Games

Preseason games for me have always been meaningless fantasy wise. Yes it's fun to watch the starters have a good series or two. It's interesting to watch all the players on the bubble fight for a roster spot. But if you watch these games thinking you're going to find a fantasy sleeper just because someone on the second team had a good game, you're only fooling yourself. Unless you have a really deep dynasty league, you can't consider guys playing with the second and third strings as sleepers. Yes, they're playing their hearts out to get the coaches attention but they're also playing against lesser talents. Now if an undrafted rookie WR blows by a Pro Bowl CB and scores a 70 yard touchdown ... okay, I'd be impressed. But how often do you see THAT in the preseason. More than likely that undrafted rookie blew by an undrafted CB and both will still be cut before the regular season begins. While a lot of fantasy owners take stock in preseason games ..... the only thing I keep an eye on is major injuries to potential draft picks ... or guys I already HAVE picked.
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Icon Fantasy Football League

Next Sunday is the draft for the IFFL, the league I've been co-commisioner of for seven years. Last year I took home the championship and will be receiving the traveling trophy and winner's medallion at the draft. I also am scheduled to pick in the 10th spot (out of ten). I look forward to this day every year and can't wait for this week to go by.

One of the things I like about our league is it's unique scoring system. We don't do PPR but we do give length of TD bonuses and bonuses for exceeding 100 yards rushing or receiving and 300 yards passing. We also give bonuses to kickers for longer field goals. The system looks like this:

Length Of TD (Passing, Rushing, Receiving, Return)

1-19 yards = 6 points.
20-49 yards = 9 points.
50+ yards = 12 points.

Yardage Bonuses:

300 Passing Yards = 6 points.
Every 20 yards passing over 300 = 1 point.

100 yards rushing = 6 points.
Every 10 yards rushing over 100 = 1 point.

100 yards receiving = 6 points.
Every 10 yards receiving over 100 = 1 point.

Field Goal Bonuses:

21-39 yard FG = 3 points.
40-49 yard FG = 5 points.
50-59 yard FG = 10 Points.
60+ yard FG = 12 points.

We do have Team D/ST and we give points for TDs (see TD Chart above), Safeties, and Points Scored Against:

0 Points Allowed = 12 points.
1-3 Points Allowed = 9 Points.
4-7 Points Allowed = 6 Points.
8-13 Points Allowed = 3 Points.

And all 2 point conversions are worth .. 2 points .. duh.

Other rules that differ from he norm include Team QBs which I've always liked because I'd rather not have to worry about picking up a handcuff QB. Last year when Brady went down and I had the Patriots QBs, I didn't have to bother going to the waiver wire for Matt Cassel which was nice. (I later dropped the Patriots QBs for Chicago's QBs just before Kyle Orton got hurt and Matt Cassel caught fire.)

We also don't require a TE in our starting lineups and for practical purposes we just count them as WRs. Not my favorite rule, but we've played with it for so long I'm not too bothered by it. What this means is we have three ways we can go in our starting lineups:

1 Team QB - 3 RBS - 2 WRS: Wishbone Lineup
1 Team QB - 2 RBS - 3 WRS: Traditional Lineup
1 Team QB - 1 RB - 4 WRS: Run And Shoot Lineup

The usual result of the no TE rule is that only a handful of TEs get drafted. Last year I believe we actually hit an all time high of seven TEs drafted. Witten, Gonzalez, Gates, and probably Clark will be selected this year, but I'll be surprised if there's many more than that. The reason being is that TEs so rarely get 100 yards receiving or score really long TDs that they aren't worth taking over a WR who is more likely to break loose for a 70-90 yard score.

It's a system that definitely redefines the usual fantasy football rankings. Quarterbacks and Kickers become more valuable in our league as do wide receivers. The system practically scoffs at the idea of always drafting two RBs in the first two rounds. But we like being different in the IFFL and are content to thumb our nose at conventional scoring systems!

I'll be keeping you updated on my team, the DEFENDING CHAMPIONS, the Miami Waves all season long.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Random Rumblings III

Another busy week in the NFL as preseason is heating up and the questions about who will sign Michael Vick were finally answered. My fantasy preseason is in full swing as well as I have worked the phones, crammed for drafts and am in full GM mode.

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Dynasty League Update

Free agency finally began and I was able to fill out my roster and get some depth at key positions. I also made a risky trade just before FA opened. I traded WR DeSean Jackson and QB Jason Campbell for QB Jamarcus Russell and WR Ted Ginn Jr. I hated giving up DeSean because he is a high upside prospect, but I needed a QB that had better upside then Joe Flacco or Campbell and I'm optimistic that Russell could break out and produce decent numbers this year. Ginn has upside, but he needs a stronger armed QB than Chad Pennington before he becomes the deep threat he's capable of. Maybe if/when Chad Henne takes over at QB for the Dolphins, Ginn will finally produce the big plays.

Made another trade on Saturday giving up rookie S William Moore of the Falcons for WR Johnny Lee Higgins of the Raiders. I figure Higgins can be an alternate KR to Leodis McKelvin and a possible bye week starter. He did show the ability to catch the long TD last year.

Free Agency brought in some good talent and much needed depth:

RB Sammy Morris (NE) - Should get decent amount of touches in Pats running game.

WR Shaun McDonald (Pit) Will be at least the #4 WR for the Steelers.

LB Scott Fujita (NO) Had 81 tackles and two INTs for the Saints last year. Possible starter for me.

P Andy Lee (SF) Needed a backup punter. Wasn't picky.

S Dawan Landry (Bal) Should have a much better season than last year. Will be starting two Landrys at safety.

QB Troy Smith (Bal) Signed him to the practice squad as Joe Flacco insurance.

WR Brian Hartline (Mia) Signed him to the practice squad. Buried on the depth chart in Miami but might be used as a returner this year.

DE Lawrence Sidbury (Atl) Practice squad, but he's a sleeper.

LB Marcus Freeman (Chic) He's also on the practice squad. Love my former Buckeyes!

RB Lamont Jordan (Den) With Moreno hurting he might see more carries than expected. Goal line monster?

DT Adam Carriker (Stl) Should be decent for Rams, maybe a spot starter for me.

DT Sen'Derrick Marks (Ten) May be the one who takes over for Albert Haynesworth eventually. A project or maybe trade bait.

Still trying to get a backup kicker! I've had bids on Shayne Graham and Jeff Reed taken away from me and I refuse to pay anymore than $1 in salary for one.
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Michael Vick

At first I was surprised that it was the Eagles who pulled the trigger on the former Falcon QB, but when you think about it, it actually makes perfect sense. Vick has always looked up to Donavan McNabb and the Eagles have a solid support system in place. Eagle fans may not like the move, but there is a chance that if Vick does all the right things ... he could be a starting QB in the league again someday. Personally, I'm rooting for Vick to prove all of his doubters wrong. Good luck Mike.
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Maurice Jones-Drew

I just don't feel the love others do for the fourth year RB in Jacksonville. I cannot see him as a Top 5 fantasy RB, no matter how hard I try. I've read and listened to all of the reasons people see MJD as a Top 5 RB .... but I can't buy it. He's a great player, but with his size I don't see him being able to go a full season as a feature back getting 25-30 touches a game.

He reminds me of a Darren Sproles or Leon Washington Great on returns ... great receiver out of the backfield ... and even effective in limited carries. He's like an Eric Metcalf or a David Meggett type. (Meggett was also 5'7" and only about ten pounds lighter than Jones-Drew.) But if he is used like an LT or a Steven Jackson, he's eventually going to wear down. He needs to be paired with another back like Fred Taylor to be effective for a full season. I don't like him in the first half of the first round. There at least seven RBs I'd take first.

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Fantasy Fanatics Brawl League

Just recently joined a league with my comrades at Fantasy Football Rankings. First 16 man draft I've ever been a part of and I like what I came out of it with. (PPR and 6 point passing TDs.)

Team 4th And 37: (Picked 13th)

1st: QB Tom Brady: Would have taken him as soon as 4th or 5th pick. With 6 points per passing TD, it was a must for me to get a top tier QB. If he's anywhere close to 2007's totals I got me a top scorer.

2nd: WR Randy Moss: Well let's see, if Brady is going to be a 30-40 TD passer, who will benefit most from him returning to form? Yep, that would be Moss. I can see 15-17 TDs easy.

3rd: RB Darren McFadden: Was surprised to see him still here after 45 picks. If he stays healthy I could have a steal.

4th: RB Felix Jones: You look at his first six games last year before he got injured and you could see he was a stud. He also returns kicks which in a league where we get points for TDs on returns is a bonus. If Barber gets hurt I got an awesome #2RB. As it is, Barber may steal his TDs at the goal-line, but he'll get the yards and a few long TDs himself.

5th: RB Donald Brown: I didn't like any of the WRs left at this point so I thought I'd grab my flex RB first. I like Brown to eventually (hopefully sooner rather than later) overtake Addai as the lead RB for the Colts.

6th: WR Devin Hester: Jay Cutler's arrival should help him. He may not be a returner anymore, but he still got speed and elusiveness. Not the worst #2 WR I could have.

7th: TE Dustin Keller: Broke down and took a TE way earlier than I normally do. Could have waited another round or two at least and grabbed Celek. Still, Keller should be decent in a conservative offense even with a rookie QB.

8th: WR Percy Harvin: Was hoping Ted Ginn would fall to me here, but it didn't happen so I took a chance on Harvin. Huge upside as my third WR.

9th: QB Trent Edwards: Looked at Patriots bye week to see who would be a good matchup but also be a decent emergency starter if Brady got hurt. Bills play Houston at home on Brady's bye week so I have what I think is a good starter then ... and a good starter if Brady gets hurt.

10th: RB Jamaal Charles: Good third down PPR back who could become starter if Larry Johnson implodes again.

11th: RB Michael Bush: Could be my favorite pick. It handcuffs McFadden and makes me feel better about the risks involved in taking him.

12th: WR Davone Bess: The WRs were picked over pretty good at this point. Just threw a dart at the board and it stuck to Bess. He didn't complain much and it didn't draw blood so it's all good.

13th: TE Brandon Pettigrew: I do love rookies and this was my third. He's got potential and I like him as my second TE.

14th: WR Keenan Burton: With Donnie Avery nicked up, it gives Burton a chance to shine. He did show ability what little he played last year.

15th: K Matt Prater: Yep, waited until the last rounds to get my kicker. They're all the same anyway, really. Place your bets.

16th: D/ST Buffalo: See last pick.


Basically what this team boils down to is this: Brady to Moss! Brady to Moss! Brady to Moss! If they can pick up where they left off in 2007, I've got a contender. If not .... better luck next year I guess.
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Sunday, August 02, 2009

Random Rumblings II

First of all, thank you to Big Troph of BigTroph.com for the new logo. Looking for a fantasy sport logo? BigTroph.com can help you out.

On to this week's ramblings....
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RapidDraft

Recently I took advantage of a free team at RapidDraft.com courtesy of Fantasy Fanatics. You draft in a twelve team league against "experts" who draft based on predetermined rankings. You have only thirty seconds to make your pick, or in "Warp" speed you have ten. You can choose what position you draft from. I decided to go right in the middle at 6th and did most of the draft at warp speed. It only took about 45 minutes and I came out with what I think is a pretty decent team:

QB Drew Brees (NO)
QB Kyle Orton (Den)

RB Chris Johnson (Ten)
RB Knowshon Moreno (Den)
RB LenDale White (Ten)
RB Felix Jones (Dal)
RB Michael Bush (Oak)

WR Greg Jennings (GB)
WR Eddie Royal (Den)
WR Lee Evans (Buff)
WR Devin Hester (Chic)
WR Chaz Shillens (Oak)
WR Percy Harvin (Minn)
WR Brian Robiske (Clev)

TE Owen Daniels (Hou)
TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det)

K Mason Crosby (GB)
K Matt Prater (Den)

DST San Diego
DST Arizona

If this was real league against real players, I'd be ecstatic! But seeing as it's just a free trial and the prizes are quite watered down, I'll be content with the fun I had drafting.

I highly recommend the experience and if you want to compete for the $2500,000 Grand Prize, it's only $9.99 per team. Just go to RapidDraft.com and get your team before it's too late.
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Plaxico Burress

I was never that fond of him as a player in the first place, but a lot of that stems from how he singlehandedly destroyed Ohio State as a Michigan State Spartan a few years ago. Little did we know that when he caught that touchdown against the Patriots in the Super Bowl that it would most likely be his last hurrah. After being indicted this week on felony gun charges, Burress is looking at up to three and a half years in prison. He might get a lesser sentence, but it should be long enough to end his career. Maybe he could come back and play.... but that's harder to fathom than Michael Vick being able to grab a starting QB job in the NFL. From hero to zero in under two years ....but at least he had his day in the ultimate spotlight.
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Derrick Mason

Speaking of former Michigan State Spartan WRs, it's good to see him return after abruptly retiring last month following the death of his friend and former QB Steve McNair. Mason is the only consistent receiver on the Ravens offense and should be able to get another 60 catches, 900 yards and four or five TDs. Without him, the Ravens might have struggled even worse in the passing game then they did early last year when QB Joe Flacco was learning the ropes. Even though I only started him once, he was a member of my IFFL Champion Miami Waves last year. Welcome back Derrick, Steve would have wanted you to play.

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Handcuffing

The practice of handcuffing starters to protect from injuries by drafting their backups can be a good thing if you're smart about WHICH players you handcuff. Some people believe it's a waste of a pick to grab someones backup while there may be a starter or two left on the board. Again, I say it depends on the WHO and the WHY you handcuff. Here's a list of DOs and DON'Ts of what players I think should be handcuffed.

- DO handcuff Tom Brady. As we saw last year, the Patriots are confident enough in their backup QBs that they won't hit the panic button if Brady goes down again. Kevin O'Connell has had over a year to digest the offense and if history is any indication .. he'll be an okay replacement and emergency fantasy starter.

- DON'T handcuff Drew Brees. If Brees goes down, Mark Brunell won't be throwing for 300 yards per game. Joey Harrington might, but seriously ... would you want to trust HIM to get you to a championship?

- DO handcuff Kurt Warner. With these receivers, Matt Leinart would be hard pressed to fail. I have a feeling he's finally ready to take over if the old man goes down.

- DON'T handcuff Peyton Manning. Other than Bret Favre, he's the most reliable QB ever as far as consecutive starts. Jim Sorgi won't get you points holding the clipboard.

- Other QB DOs: Dante Culpepper (Matt Stafford),Marc Bulger (Kyle Boller), Jamarcus Russell (Jeff Garcia), Kyle Orton (Chris Simms), Joe Flacco (Troy Smith), Brady Quinn (Derek Anderson), Kerry Collins (Vince Young), Matt Schaub (Dan Orlovsky).

- DO handcuff a backfield duo. Whether it's Chris Johnson/LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams/James Stewart if both are having huge success, you have to figure it's worth the gamble to grab them both and start them every week. If you're savvy enough to draft depth behind them, an injury to one of them won't be devastating.

- DON'T handcuff Matt Forte. Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe won't be nearly as effective as Forte can be. Unless you have a really deep league, look elsewhere.

- DO handcuff Brian Westbrook. You know he's going to get banged up as always. Grabbing LeSean McCoy as insurance is a must.

- DON'T handcuff Steven Jackson. There's nobody there behind him that can get you decent fantasy points. Unless they grab Edgerrin James in free agency, forget about it.

- DO handcuff Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood may not be an every down back, but if Turner goes down, his touches will definitely increase, especially in PPR leagues. He's got big play ability.

- DON'T handcuff Steve Slaton. Yes I know the Texans want to use Chris Brown as a short yardage back, but if Slaton gets injured, do you think he and Ryan Moats will really put up any substantial numbers?

- Other RB DOs: Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson, Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene, Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall, LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles, Marion Barber/Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells

- DON'T EVER handcuff a wide receiver!! Too many good starters out there at the position to waste a pick on them.

- DO handcuff Jason Witten. The only TE I would even consider because Martellus Bennett is a playmaker that could definitely be worth it if Witten goes down. The TE will be a huge part of the Dallas offense this year and even if Witten stays healthy, Bennett will see some touches in the red zone. Only recommend it in deep leagues where you have the slots for three TEs or more.

Be smart about your handcuffs though, don't overvalue them and draft them too quickly. You could be hurting yourself in depth in the long run.
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Rumble at you later.

Random Rumblings

It's a glorious time of year! Training camps are open, first round picks are signing (and getting injured), and I'm getting the drafting bug. This year I'm playing in three leagues: Total Dynasty League run by Joshua Torrey of Fantasy Depth Chart, the FFtwitter League at Yahoo started by Marcella Surra of Fantasy Smarts.com , and of course my home league the Icon Fantasy Football League in it's seventh year. The latter two will have their drafts just before the season starts and I'm chomping at the bit to get to it. Already plotting, already scheming .... already rambling.
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Total Dynasty League Update

This week I found out I had six players on my team that the former owner didn't bother adding to the roster:

WR Robert Meachem (NO) Was pleased about finding out the third year wideout was on my roster. Reports out of Saints training camp say he has showed improvement and that QB Drew Brees has even given him kudos. He had a couple of big plays last year for the Saints and if Marques Colston, Deverly Henderson, or Lance Moore get injured, I'd have a real sleeper on my hands.

P Brad Maynard (Chic) Glad to see I'm not going to have to research punters as much as I would have.

LB Vernon Gholston (NYJ) Another pleasant surprise as I had him targeted in free agency. The second year LB from Ohio State should benefit from Jets HC Rex Ryan's tutelage and hopefully be utilized as more of a pass rusher. Huge upside here.

LB Dan Morgan (FA) Last with the Saints. He's retired, so I released him.

CB Randal Gay (NO) With a glut of DBs in New Orleans his value is uncertain.

CB Usama Young (NO) See Randal Gay above. Not sure what the previous owner saw in all these Saints players.....

Was glad to get some depth at WR and LB. Still need to target QB, RB, DT, and S in free agency ... which hopefully will happen in the next week or two.
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Brett Favre

Was surprised, but glad he finally made a decision. After watching his interview with Joe Buck a few weeks back I totally expected him to be playing for the Vikings come September. But he's right, why risk a repeat of last year when his body failed him toward the end of the season with the Jets. Enjoy retirement Brett, you've earned it, but now I've got to find another QB to target in Total Dynasty free agency. Darn it all!
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Chris "Beanie" Wells

Not a good sign. Wells was carted off of the practice field mere hours after signing his 5 year deal. Reports say it's only a mild ankle sprain, but this only reinforces his reputation for being injury prone and will certainly hinder his chances of gaining the starting RB job from Tim Hightower. Being a Buckeye fan, I'm used to Wells getting hurt ... so I'm not surprised, just disappointed.
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Michael Vick

Love him or hate him, you would think he could make at least a small impact for any team wanting to run the Wildcat. But with all of the "Rules" attached to signing him, you really have to wonder if he's worth it for NFL teams to go through the PR chaos just to run a play or two with him in the lineup in November and December. He's definitely not worth drafting in fantasy ... I don't care how deep your league is.
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Dirty Dungarees

This time of year I can't help reminiscing about the summer of 1991, the first year I participated in fantasy football. My first draft was held at a laundromat/bar on the Ohio State campus in Columbus called Dirty Dungarees. I didn't know a sleeper from a sleepwalker then and I showed it by taking an IDP in the third round!! (DE Bruce Smith). Somehow I muddled through the season and actually made the playoffs. From there I was hooked, never to look back. Dirty Dungarees is still there on High Street. I haven't had time to make my way down there in over fifteen years.... so if any of you stop in there, have a drink for me.
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Thanks for listening to me go on. Enjoy training camps!