Saturday, July 17, 2010

The Over And Under

A few notes on some players I think are getting stiffed or spoiled in value in fantasy rankings this year:


RB LeSean McCoy, Phil His current ADP has him going in the mid thirties and in the mid teens overall at the RB position. But with Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver stealing the short yardage and goal line carries and add the fact that Philadelphia is more of a pass first offense, I see McCoy as more of a RB3 than the RB2 he is being drafted as. Think of Julius Jones with the Cowboys a few years ago when Marion Barber was getting all of the red zone work. I'm thinking we might see a similar scenario this year in Philly.

RB Jahvid Best, Det Everyone is touting him as a Chris Johnson clone with big play ability. His ADP has him going anywhere from 3rd round to 5th round in most drafts. Some rankings I've seen have him rated in the top 20 overall at RB. And the fact that Kevin Smith most likely won't be 100% healthy for the start of the season makes him a tempting prospect to say the least. But my alarm goes off when I realize A) He has a serious history of injuries including a major concussion last year that damn near looked like it killed him and B) He plays behind a Lions O-Line that can barely open a ZipLoc bag let alone holes for anyone to run through. If you draft him as anything higher than a RB3, you've got more stones than I do.

WR Steve Smith, Car I've always been a big fan of his but let's look at the facts. 1) The Panthers will be a run-oriented offense with the tandem of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams carrying the bulk of the load. 2) Neither Matt Moore or rookie Jimmy Claussen have the experience or the deep throw to make use of Smith's speed. 3) Smith is an injury waiting to happen, whether it be on the NFL field, or the touch football field. While ADP projections have him going in the mid fourth round and mid teens overall at the WR ranks, I'm not going to draft him as anything more than a bench slot behind my starters.


QB Carson Palmer, Cin Palmer had one of his worst seasons last year, especially towards the end. But this year I feel he will be back to 100% health and that the Bengals won't be relying on the running game quite as much. Antonio Bryant was a good pickup, but I think the two key aquisitions for the Bengals were in the draft. Namely TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, who both have trememdous pass catching skills. If you are going to wait for a quarterback until the 6-10th round, Palmer could be a steal.

WR Eddie Royal, Den He went from 91 catches, 980 yards, and 5 TDs in 2008 to totally irrelevant in 2009 with only 37-345 and zero touchdowns.But here's the good news: Brandon Marshall and his 205 catches the last two years is gone. Royal's 79 targets last year WILL go up, despite the presence of rookie Demarius Thomas who I do not believe will be fully ready for the start of the season. Jabar Gaffney will start opposite Royal but is not a WR#1 by any means. Whether it be Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, or Tim Tebow at the helm... the Bronco passing game is going to need to get the ball to Royal to succeed.

RB Felix Jones, Dal A lot of people are red flagging him as injury prone. And the presence of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice also lead detractors to believe he may not be someone to have in their starting lineups in 2009. But Jones tied Chris Johnson in YPC with 5.9 last year (granted, he only got a third of the carries that Johnson did) and can be a weapon in the passing game. He has big play ability that I would be willing to chance as RB2. Injury prone sminjury prone, if worst comes to worst I'll draft him high and get Choice or Barber as handcuff. The Dallas offense is going to be explosive this year and having a key guy like Jones on your roster will help you soar to the playoffs.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

My Auction-osophy

Well, I know it's been awhile since my last post but I've been pretty busy with work and other projects. Time to do some catching up.

IFFL 2009 Final Update

Ended up losing to the Green Bay Dynasty in the playoffs due to Peyton Manning going completely bonkers against the Jaguars. A real disappointing ending to what was one of my best regular seasons ever. The Dynasty went on to destroy the Bruney Broncos in the Championship. Congrats again John.

FEXDA II Expert Dynasty League
I recently finished a 16 team dynasty auction league in which other contributors included guys from some pretty prominent fantasy websites., FantasyGuru, The Huddle, and others were all involved in a month long auction. It was a lot of fun and very excruciating all at the same time. The total cap amount was $400 in which to draft 42 players. 6 of these players had to be rookies. No more, no less. Here's my team and what I paid for each player:

QBChad HenneMia$31.00I like his chances to be a top 15 QB with Brandon Marshall arriving via Denver.
QBVince YoungTenn$12.00Should be a solid backup. Might have his best year yet statistically. Possible suspension for assault is irritating.
QBKerry CollinsTenn$1.00Grabbed him before VY's incident. Now am glad I did. Protects against a suspension. Good handcuff either way.
RBRay RiceBal$80.00In a PPR league he should be well worth the price tag.
RBMatt ForteChi$42.00Had a sophomore slump in 2009. Hoping for a bounce back.
RBReggie BushNO$17.00Not a bad price for a multi-dimensional RB#3.
RBJavon RingerTenn$4.00If CJ holds out or gets injured, I could have a huge bargain.
RBWillis McGaheeBal$4.00A $4 handcuff for my $80 franchise player. Viable as an emergency start too.
RBMike BellPhil$2.00Could be a sleeper if LeSean McCoy stumbles in Philly..
RBLeonard WeaverPhil$1.00Not a sexy pick but was surprisingly productive in the Philly offense last year.
WRMichael CrabtreeSF$55.00Yeah I probably overpaid but I targeted him as THE WR I had to have.
WRKenny BrittTenn$27.00Again, paid a steep price for a 2nd year WR. Should be worth it in the long run.
WRBrandon LaFell*Car$7.00He has a great chance at winning starting job this year. He and Clausen may hook up for years.
WRMohamed MassaquoiCle$6.00Another 2nd year WR who has a decent chance at being THE guy.
WRJohnny KnoxChi$11.00Overpaid for him, but love him in a Mike Martz offense.
WREarl BennettChi$2.00Between him or Knox I should have a strong Chic WR.
WRBrad SmithNYJ$1.00Purely a depth pick. Won't see enough action behind other Jet WRs to merit a start. Possible trade bait.
WRDeon ButlerSea$1.00Could be Seattle's slot receiver. If not this year then next.
TEJermaine Gresham*Cin$7.00Good price for him I thought. Cincinnati's first real pass catching TE in years.
TEBen WatsonCle$1.00Won't be a fantasy stud, but like him as a spot starter if Gresham is slow to develop.
TEDaniel FellsStl$1.00Second year TE showed promise as a rookie. Possibly Sam Bradford's go-to guy?
PKConnor BarthTB$1.00His three 50 yard FG day vs. Miami last year stood out for me. Can't beat the price.
PKJosh ScobeeJac$1.00Needed another kicker. Got one. End of story here.
DEWill SmithNO$5.00One of my favorite former Buckeyes. Paid a little too much for him, but I'm pleased.
DEMatt ShaunessyOak$1.00Won a starting spot in his rookie year. Improvement in 2010 a good probability.
DECarlos Dunlap*Cin$4.00Won't be a starter this year, but could be valuable down the road.
DEAlex Carrington*Buff$2.00Another developmental rookie that I hope becomes a starter eventually.
LBJames LaurinitisSTL$22.00Wanted him badly and overpaid for him, but he will be my IDP anchor for awhile.
LBRolando McClain*Oak$20.00Will be a starting LB for me (and the Raiders) hopefully for many MANY years.
LBDemarcus WareDal$6.00Not a horrible price for a Pro Bowl sack machine LB.
LBA.J. HawkGB$3.00Another of my favorite Buckeyes. Not bad as my 4th LB. Needs to step up a bit.
LBTamba HaliKC$1.00Converted DE had 8.5 sacks last year. Hoping for more this year.
LBGerald HayesAriz$1.00Should benefit from the departure of Karlos Dansby. Statistically speaking that is.
CBVontae DavisMia$2.002nd year CB has big play potential. Could be a longtime starter for me.
CBMike JenkinsDal$1.00Had a solid sophomore season in 09. Looking for him to improve.
CBChamp BaileyDen$1.00He's a bit long in the tooth, but the price was right.
SEd ReedBal$1.00Perennial Pro-Bowler still has gas left in the tank despite injuries last year. I hope.
SMichael GriffinTenn$1.00Young safety that can make big plays.
SAntrell RolleNYG$1.00Should have a decent year for the Giants.
STaylor Mays*SF$8.00Has something to prove after being snubbed by Pete Carroll and the Seahawks.

This was my first ever dynasty AUCTION draft. All other auctions I have ever participated in were one year only drafts. But my philosophy in auction drafts has always been the same: Be aggressive to get who you want, even if it means overpaying. Might sound reckless to some ... ok, maybe it is. But in my mind an auction league is an opportunity to fill a roster with players I like or want ... and their acquisition is totally in my own power. And on this roster I have many players I like and wanted going forward. For me that's what's really important. I'd rather lose with players I hand picked than lose with guys I was forced to settle for. I prefer winning with guys I targeted and got, rather than win with guys I had little faith in but took because they were the best available.

 My first priority going into the auction was to nab a top five RB no matter what the cost. And since all the top backs came out fast and furious this was done fairly quickly. Ray Rice for $80.00 (20% of my total cap) was my first player acquired. I was pleased to be able to get him.

This being a dynasty league, one thing I told myself and was able to hold to .. I was NOT going to pay more than $1.00 for any player leaning towards the downside of his career. And to me that means a player with nine years or more in the NFL. I managed to almost avoid drafting these player altogether, but only paid $1.00 each for Kerry Collins, Champ Bailey, and Ed Reed. Abjective reached there.

Then I targeted six other specific players and said I would break the bank if necessary to get them. A goal I missed by one player unfortunately as Beanie Wells went way higher than I wanted to pay without completely destroying my chances at the other five. Those five were Chad Henne, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, James Lauranitis, and Rolando McClain. I felt with these players plus Rice, I would have a solid nucleus to build my team around. I paid some major bucks for them.

Throughout the draft I targeted mainly young players. Guys with only a season or two under their belt. My WRs are probably the best example. I totally bypassed any of the top WRs like Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald and bid on guys like Crabtree, Britt, and Knox. Hoping that if they don't bloom this year, they'll hit their stride in year three of their careers. Crabtree, Britt, and Massaquoi should all be their team's #1 wideout this year ... and hopefully for many years to come. Out of the seven WRs I drafted I have one rookie, four second year guys, one third year player, and one fifth year WR. Now that's drafting youth!

Did I draft a team that can win it all this year? Well, probably not be honest. But give it another year or two and I could have a very strong contender. And a lot of players I will look forward to watching.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Week 14 Rumblings

It's finally playoff time!! Good luck to all of you out there in fantasyland ... except to those who are playing ME! HOOOOO HOOO HOOO!!!!!

Stock Watch For 2010

It's never too early to look ahead to the following season. And there are more than a few players whose 2010 seasons are up in the air. Could their fantasy stock rise? Could it fall? Is it a complete mystery? Here is a look at a select few who should have their production either significantly increase, decrease, or whose future is totally up in the air.


WR Michael Crabtree (SF) To come in as late in the season as he did due to his holdout and be as much a part of the 49er's offense as he has is pretty telling. 32 catches for 406 yards in just seven games projects to about 70 catches and nearly 1000 yards. Next year, with a full off-season program under his belt and Alex Smith fully entrenched as the starter, I could see Crabtree as a strong #3 WR in fantasy lineups.

RB Justin Forsett (Sea) Forsett made the most of his opportunity when Julius Jones sat due to injury and is still getting a few touches, even catching a TD last week as the third down change of pace back. Next year there is a strong possibility of him beating Jones out of the starting RB job.

QB Chad Henne (Mia) Last week Henne had a breakout game against the Patriots, throwing for over 300 yards and 2 TDs. It seems like he's developed quite the rapport with WRs Davone Bess and rookie Brian Hartline. Next year, with Ronnie Brown a huge injury risk and Ricky Williams fountain youth running dry ... the team may have to lean more on it's passing game.... which could see Henne posting decent numbers.

RB Chris Jennings (Clev) Unless Jamal Lewis "pulls a Favre" and retires, then unretires ... Jennings could find himself in the starting lineup over RBs Harrison and James Davis for the Brwons. Unless the Browns take C.J. Spiller in the draft that is.


RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) It's looking like the future Hall Of Famer jumped the shark in late 2007. He's done well for owners in TD only leagues this year, but yardage wise he will not hit 1000 yards rushing in a season for the first time in his career unless he averages more than 140 yards over the last three games. Next year, it's questionable whether he'll even be with the Chargers and may have to take a lesser role with another team.

RB Reggie Bush (NO) What can you say about Bush other than HUGE disappoinment? He can't stay healthy for a full season and even when he IS playing, he's Captain Sporadic ... getting the occasional two TD game but disappearing in others. With Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas both doing admirable jobs carrying the load, why would the Saints use Bush as anything other than a thrid down back and PR next year?

WR Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia) He's a first round bust that lost his chance to be a major impact player in the Dolphin passing game this year by dropping easy passes and running poor routes. Unless your league starts a KR/PR in 2010, I'd shy away from the former Buckeye.

QB Jason Campbell (Wash) He's actually suprised as far as decent numbers have been concerned. But the Redskins weren't sold on him to start the season ... and the team hasn't gotten any better. He might be the starter going into next year, but if the team drafts a QB in the first round and the season goes to hell quickly ... it might be over for Campbell.


WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) With the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in the Indy passing game, where does that leave the former first round pick? Injuries have ruined his season and allowed others to pass him by on the depth chart. Could he be traded and be a key cog in someone elses offense in 2010?

WR Terrell Owens (Buff) Will the Bills want to bring him back next year? If so, will T.O. WANT to come back? And in either case, will he still be effective at his age? You've got to keep in mind there will be a new HC and new OC for the Bills next year.

QB Jamarcus Russell (Oak) Will his benching a few weeks ago wake him up? The Raiders now have a plethora of potential pass catchers in Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, Chaz Shiliens, and even Darrius Heyward-Bey ... but has Bruce Gradkowski grabbed the starting QB job in a chokehold? If so ... where does that leave Russell? And the biggest question .. can he ever be a starting NFL QB?

QB Brady Quinn (Clev) He's shown glimpses this year but a lot of questions hang over the Browns as a whole. Will Mangini still be coach? Who will the new GM be? And will the Dawgs target a Jake Locker or Colt McCoy in the draft?


A 63-38 victory over the Buckeye Wrecking Crew ups my record to 11-2 and all but eliminates the BWC from playoff contention, although they can still get in by beating the Green Bay Dynasty by 52 points or more. Improbable, but not impossible.

Glory Division
Miami Waves
Green Bay Dynasty
Buckeye Wrecking Crew
West Virginia Dolphins
Pennsylvania PimpDaddies

This final week of the regualr season is almost meaningless to me. But to my opponent The Running Vikings it's a must win to get into the playoffs. I have mixed feelings about wanting my team to finish  12-2. If I score big this week, it could be a bad omen for the playoff game the following weekend. And I've seen it before ... the best team in the league has a huge game right before the playoffs ... then falls flat on it's face in the first round. The Vikings .. ironically enough ... is loaded with Minnesota players including Bret Favre, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and the Vikings DST. Add Steven Jackson and Vincent Jackson and you have the makings of a semi-dangerous lineup. My lineup for the week:

Tony Romo (Dal TMQB)
vs. San Diego
Chris Johnson (Tenn)
vs. Detroit
Laurence Maroney (NE)
vs. Carolina
DeSean Jackson (Phil)
@NY Giants
Randy Moss (NE)
vs. Carolina
Chad Ochocinco (Cin)
@ Minnesota
Ryan Longwell (Minn)
vs. Cincinnati
NY Jets
@ Tampa Bay

I won't be heartbroken if I lose, even though means my nine game winning streak comes to an end.

In the Fanatics 16 Man Brawl League, I have made the playoffs as the fifth seed and will be playing the fourth seeded Cape Fears. Off to a good start already as Rothlisberger did virtually nothing for him. Hoping for a big day from the Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection.