1) Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) In his sixth season, Fitzgerald is one of the best and still very much in his prime. Fresh off of a Super Bowl where if the Cardinals had won, he easily would have been named MVP. His twelve touchdown catches tied for the league lead last year. Even if Anquan Boldin gets traded, I still think Fitzgerald will have a huge season with 1300 yards and double digit TDs.
2) Randy Moss (NE) Give Randy credit, unlike T.O. and Ochocinco he seems to have matured with age and not become a distraction to his team over the last couple of years. If Tom Brady is back healthy and in good form, Moss is easy money for at least a dozen touchdowns .....if not more.
3) Marques Colston (NO) Colston's season was derailed for five games with a broken hand, but when he came back he was still Drew Brees' go-to guy. He may have only caught five TDs but give him a full healthy season and he should have at least ten to eleven. The development of WR Lance Moore will keep teams from doubling Colston. You can't go wrong having the No.1 receiver from the league's best pass offense.
4) Calvin Johnson (Det) Despite playing with three different quarterbacks last season, Johnson tied with Fitzgerald for the league lead in touchdown catches with 12. He was the Lions one bright spot in a disastrous season. It won't matter if it's Dante Culpepper or Matt Stafford at QB, Johnson can make big plays anywhere on the field if he catches the ball.
5) Andre Johnson (Hou) With 115 catches for 1500 yards and 8 scores last year, Johnson finally became a #1 WR in fantasy. He had seven games with ten catches or more and eight games over 100 yards. If QB Matt Schaub stays healthy for a full season, we could easily see Johnson's TD total rise.
6) Roddy White (Atl) His chemistry with then rookie QB Matt Ryan was one of fantasy football's pleasant surprises last year. With 88 catches and over 1300 yards, Ryan looked to him early and often. With a year of playing together under their belt, I won't be surprised if White's totals grow. Especially in the TD department where he had only seven a year ago.
7) Greg Jennings (GB) Jennings did everything he could to make Aaron Rodgers look good last year in wake of Bret Favre's departure. With 80 catches, almost 1300 yards, and 9 scores last year, he was the Packers big play guy on offense. With Rodgers more comfortable under center this year, I see similar numbers out of Jennings in 2009.
8) Reggie Wayne (Ind) His touchdown totals were down last year from 10 in 2007 to only 6 in 2008, but he's still Peyton Manning's main guy in Indianapolis. As long as Manning has a healthier offseason then he did last year, Wayne's numbers should return to 2007 form.
9) Wes Welker (NE) Yes, he only scored 3 touchdowns with Matt Cassell at QB last year, but he caught 111 balls for 1165 yards. Now Tom Brady is back and he should see the end zone a few more times while still racking up the touches. In PPR leagues he's easily a #1 WR, but even in non-PPR leagues he should be more valuable then he was last year.
10) Anquan Boldin (Ariz) His value rises if he gets traded just because wherever he goes, he should be the #1 receiver. But if he stays, he's still a good choice as your first WR, even with Larry Fitzgerald on the same team. Even though he missed three games after almost getting decapitated against the Jets, he still racked up 89 catches and scored 11 times.
11) Roy Williams (Dal) Williams was more than disappointing after being traded to Dallas, catching only 19 passes in ten games. But T.O. has left the building and the onus is on Williams to replace the huge numbers that Owens accounted for. Give him a preseason with the team and time to work with Romo and I think he becomes a borderline #1 receiver or at least a solid #2.
12) Terrell Owens (Buff) He's not a #1 WR anymore, especially in Buffalo where Trent Edwards might be the least talented QB Owens has ever worked with. He'll be more valuable if Buffalo is winning, but if they tank early in the season he'll be next to worthless the rest of the way. Look for him to score 8 or 9 TDs ... if the Bills are in contention throughout.
13) Steve Smith (Car) He's still a huge playmaker, but with the emphasis on the running game in Carolina and inconsistent play from QB Jake Delhomme I'm not sold on him as #1 WR this year. While he did miss the first two games of 2008 due to suspension he still only managed 6 touchdowns. However, you can't discount his 18.2 yards per catch or the fact teams may defend him one on one while loading up the box to stop the run.
14) Dwayne Bowe (KC) The arrival of QB Matt Cassell and the departure of TE Tony Gonzalez makes Bowe a more interesting prospect than in his first two years. With practically nobody else in the KC receiving corp, Bowe should be a shining star. I think this could be a breakout third year for the LSU alum if Cassell is all he's cracked up to be.
15) Chad Ochocinco (Cin) No doubt his numbers plummeted in 2008 mainly due to Carson Palmer's absence. But with a healthy Palmer, Ochocinco has no more excuses. Somebody will have to take some of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's numbers, and I'm not sure Laveranues Coles will be as productive as Housh was. I definitely wouldn't take him as my first WR, but I think his numbers will definitely bounce back this year.
16) DeSean Jackson (Phil) He had a solid rookie year with 912 yards and a couple of scores (minus that one he SHOULD have had against the Cowboys)but this year he's prepped to be the #1 receiver for a team I feel will have one of the more explosive offenses in 2009. "Action" Jackson may be in for a huge sophmore season.
17) Braylon Edwards (Clev) After a huge 2007, Edwards got a huge case of the dropsies last year. He was probably the biggest WR disappointment in fantasy football. Some claim he put too much pressure on himself to produce huge numbers last year and it took away from his concentration. However, if the Browns decide on a QB and stick with him from Day One, I can see Braylon bouncing back to at least be a serviceable #2 WR. Hopefully he's learned his lesson.
18) Brandon Marshall (Den) Would have ranked him much higher if the Broncos hadn't screwed around with their QB situation and dumped Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton. His offseason issues are also starting to raise a red flag. All in all, this has the makings of a disaster. Buyer Beware.
19) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea) I've never been a big Matt Hasselbeck fan, but for the first time in a long while, he has a legitimate playmaker to throw to. Housh should be able to top 1000 yards and score 7-8 touchdowns in Seattle this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) He takes over for Marvin Harrison as the starter opposite Reggie Wayne. I like him for the wrong reasons, I admit ... 1) He's a Buckeye. 2) It's his third year. 3) Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball. 4) He's a Buckeye. Seriously though, he's got the smarts and the hands to be a solid #3 fantasy receiver, if not a #2.
As always, comments here or on Twitter (http://twitter.com/vice2020) are most welcome.
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