Every year in fantasy football there are a few players who surpass expectations and become solid starters. Last year we had QB Matt Cassell, WR Lance Moore, RB Tim Hightower, RB Leron McClain, just to name a few. Who will be the surprises of 2009? Let me get out my crystal ball....
- RB Rashad Jennings (Jac) With Fred Taylor gone to New England, the Jags needed a running mate for Maurice Jones-Drew. Enter Jennings who while projected higher by some experts, fell to the Jags in the seventh round. He's a big back who will be used as a short yardage specialist and probable goal-line situations. Possibility of half a dozen TDs.
- WR Derrick Williams (Det) Another rookie to watch out for, Williams has a knack for dynamic playmaking. Culpepper certainly has the arm to get it to Williams deep. If he manages to grab the third receiver spot away from Ronald Curry, we could see a few long TDs out of the former Nittany Lion.
- QB Kyle Boller (STL) Marc Bulger is an injury waiting to happen ... again. And while the Rams receiving corp is very inexperienced, the OL is greatly improved. Something tells me though that Bulger won't make it through the season. Boller has the arm and the experience to make a decent showing if Bulger goes down.
- RB Lamont Jordan (Den) Despite the fact that Denver drafted Knowshon Moreno, Coach Josh McDaniels is more familiar with Jordan from last season with the Patriots. I can see Jordan having a significant role in a RBBC and ending up with a few TDs along the way.
- WR Keenan Burton (STL) He was fairly quiet in his rookie season, but this year he gets a chance to start for the rebuilding Rams. With Donnie Avery making a little noise last year thus becoming the player most defenses will try to take away in the passing game, Burton may have a surprising year in a division not known for it's shutdown #2 cornerbacks.
- RB Fred Jackson (Buff) We know Marshawn Lynch will be out the first few games due to suspension which will give Jackson a chance to show his stuff. He's flashed the ability to carry the load in the past ... could this be the year he keeps it?
- WR Robert Meachem (NO) A former first rounder... in his third year ... and playing for the league's top passing offense. Three positive signs that Meachem could have a breakout year. If he can pass Devery Henderson on the depth chart, we might see some serious production.
- RB Glen Coffee (SF) Drafted to spell Frank Gore, Coffee has the elusiveness and the hands to have some serious impact on the field. Gore's questionable durability add to the intrigue. Handcuff material at worst.
- WR Brian Robiske (Clev) Word out of Cleveland is that Robiske already has the starting WR spot locked up opposite Braylon Edwards. The fact Edwards will draw more coverage might give the former Buckeye a chance to shine.
- TE Brent Celek (Phil) He caught 10 passes in the NFC Championship game against the Cardinals, so McNabb knows he can count on him. With L.J. Smith gone, Celek's numbers should increase. A definitive red zone threat.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Twitter Fantasy Football
Being part of the first ever Twitter Fantasy Football draft is a lot of fun and quite the honor. I'm really glad I was lucky enough to get in on it before it filled up. And even though it took a looooooooooong time to complete, the anticipation with each pick in each round was well worth the wait. Here's my team and why I took each player.
Round One: RB Adrian Peterson (Minn) Not a tough choice with the first overall pick. AP led the league in rushing last year, but I'm hoping he improves on his touchdown total. It would also help if he gets more involved in the passing game this year. The possible addition of Bret Favre could also boost Peterson's stats because opposing defenses will have to respect the passing game even more.
Round Two: WR Roddy White (Atl) Was hoping Andre Johnson would fall to me here, but he was taken one pick in front of me. (Durn you Cal Spears) So I took who I thought was the best receiver left. If Matt Ryan improves in his sophomore season, White's numbers should increase. He's also a new favorite of mine since he helped me win a championship last year after I drafted him in the seventh round.
Round Three: RB Joseph Addai (Ind) In hindsight, I might have wanted to take another receiver here, but Addai was my next rated RB. Despite the fact that the Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round of the NFL Draft, I'm hoping Addai still gets the bulk of the carries.
Round Four: WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin) I like this pick a lot. I really think the departure of Housh and a healthy Carson Palmer will combine to increase the numbers for "8-5". And if what he's said in recent interviews comes true, he's going to come into the season with a better outlook and attitude. I'm crossing my fingers that he's not just blowing smoke.
Round Five: QB Donovan McNabb (Phil) VERY pleased with my starting QB. McNabb has a lot to prove this year and I think the new faces on offense will invigorate him even more. The additions of rookies WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy may be enough to boost McNabb's numbers. Was pleased to get my target QB right where I'd hoped he would fall to me. Hoping he can stay healthy for another full season.
Round Six: RB Willie Parker (Pit)Not everyday you can say you got the starting tailback for the Super Bowl Champions in the sixth round. Parker may not score as much as I'd like but he's good for yardage, especially against Ohio teams...
Round Seven: WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) This could be a breakout year for Gonzo. Marvin Harrison is gone, so he becomes Peyton Manning's #2 WR. I was pleased to get him this late. The fact that he's a former Buckeye is a bonus! I'm such a homer.
Round Eight: QB Carson Palmer (Cin) As mentioned earlier, I'm hoping for a healthy Carson Palmer this year. But I'm also hoping I won't have to start him this year other than McNabb's bye week. Week 4 when McNabb gets his break, Palmer and the Bengals play the Browns so I should have a good matchup there.
Round Nine: WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG) Decided to go with a rookie (I am famous for having to have at least one rookie on any fantasy squad I've ever drafted) as my fourth WR. And with the Giants WR corp in flux due to the losses of Plaxico and Toomer, Nicks has a good chance to produce in his rookie season. Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are reportedly entrenched as the starters, but the third receiver job is up for grabs with Nicks in contention with Sinorice Moss and Mario Manningham. A good value in Round 9 I think.
Round Ten: RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Had several RBs marked for this pick, but they all went bye bye in the half a dozen picks before mine, so I decided to take a chance on this former first rounder who struggled with injuries last year and didn't see much action. I don't think Fred Taylor will have the impact that other people predict and Sammy Morris is almost as injury-prone. As my fourth RB, Maroney is very easily waived if it looks like he won't produce.
Round Eleven: TE Zach Miller (Oak) Waited and waited for a TE because the value on them this year is extremely poor. Other than Witten, Gates, or Gonzalez, they all pretty much look the same to me. Miller and Jamarcus Russell have had plenty of time to get a feel for each other so there is potential here.
Round Twelve: DST Green Bay Packers Here's what I remember from last year: my better half seemed to score twenty plus points per week with her Packers defense! Between Will Blackmon returning punts and Charles Woodson and Nick Collins returning interceptions, it seemed like they racked up a huge amount of DST touchdowns. They've added some stud players in the draft and are poised to improve in other categories as well.
Round Thirteen: K Nick Folk (Dal) Darn it, I went and gone done it. I broke down here and grabbed the first kicker off of the board. I figured I was deep enough at QB, RB, and WR to go ahead and grab my last starter here in the 13th. Folk has been a solid scorer his first two years in the league, and I can't see that changing anytime soon.
Round Fourteen: WR Johnny Lee Higgins (Oak) Scored seven touchdowns last year (3 punt return) so even if he IS a Raider, he's still a great value this late in the draft. He's another reason they shouldn't have drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey ... they already had a speedster who could catch the deep ball and make big plays.
Round Fifteen: TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det) Told you I liked my rookies. Okay, so he's a rookie TE for the worst team in the league ..... I think he could put up numbers similar to Dustin Keller or John Carlson last year if given the chance.
Round Sixteen: QB Brady Quinn (Clev) Mr. Irrelevant! Last pick of the draft and I decided to take a third QB. Quinn could be a sleeper if Braylon Edwards quits putting so much pressure on himself and if rookie WR Brian Robiske is a fast learner.
Forecasted Starting Lineup
QB Donovan McNabb
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Joseph Addai
WR Roddy White
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Anthony Gonzalez
TE Zach Miller
K Nick Folk
DST Packers
Favorite Pick: Ochocinco. I really believe he will bounce back and put up better numbers.
Second Guess Pick: Addai. Should I have taken Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, or Marques Colston instead and found a #2 RB in the fourth round?
Overview: I think I did well enough. My quarterbacks all have injury histories, but I'm optimistic that at least TWO can stay healthy this season. I've got solid RBs in Peterson, Addai, and Parker but they all need to get their touchdown totals up. If Donald Brown cuts into Addai's time too much I may have to use Parker as my #2 down the stretch.
My WRs aren't spectacular as such. White will hopefully improve on his TDs and Ochocinco will need to have a comeback year. Gonzalez hopefully will get a bigger share of the Colts offense this year. I'm not expecting a whole lot of points out of my tight ends, but one of them could surprise. And as far as my kicker and defense/special teams ... well, those are always a crap shoot .... even more than the skill positions.
For a twelve team league, I think I did a good job of drafting good depth at QB, RB, and WR. But I've got several players who had bad years last year and need to make comebacks: Addai, Ochocinco, Palmer, and Maroney.
The whole draft process was a lot of fun, even if it did take a couple of weeks to complete. I want to thank Mike Pera for organizing the whole thing and Mark Gram for coming up with the idea. Thanks to rest of my fellow drafters as well for your commentary and chatter on Twitter. I look forward to talking more with all of you throughout. Let's have a fun fantasy season!
Round One: RB Adrian Peterson (Minn) Not a tough choice with the first overall pick. AP led the league in rushing last year, but I'm hoping he improves on his touchdown total. It would also help if he gets more involved in the passing game this year. The possible addition of Bret Favre could also boost Peterson's stats because opposing defenses will have to respect the passing game even more.
Round Two: WR Roddy White (Atl) Was hoping Andre Johnson would fall to me here, but he was taken one pick in front of me. (Durn you Cal Spears) So I took who I thought was the best receiver left. If Matt Ryan improves in his sophomore season, White's numbers should increase. He's also a new favorite of mine since he helped me win a championship last year after I drafted him in the seventh round.
Round Three: RB Joseph Addai (Ind) In hindsight, I might have wanted to take another receiver here, but Addai was my next rated RB. Despite the fact that the Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round of the NFL Draft, I'm hoping Addai still gets the bulk of the carries.
Round Four: WR Chad Ochocinco (Cin) I like this pick a lot. I really think the departure of Housh and a healthy Carson Palmer will combine to increase the numbers for "8-5". And if what he's said in recent interviews comes true, he's going to come into the season with a better outlook and attitude. I'm crossing my fingers that he's not just blowing smoke.
Round Five: QB Donovan McNabb (Phil) VERY pleased with my starting QB. McNabb has a lot to prove this year and I think the new faces on offense will invigorate him even more. The additions of rookies WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy may be enough to boost McNabb's numbers. Was pleased to get my target QB right where I'd hoped he would fall to me. Hoping he can stay healthy for another full season.Round Six: RB Willie Parker (Pit)Not everyday you can say you got the starting tailback for the Super Bowl Champions in the sixth round. Parker may not score as much as I'd like but he's good for yardage, especially against Ohio teams...
Round Seven: WR Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) This could be a breakout year for Gonzo. Marvin Harrison is gone, so he becomes Peyton Manning's #2 WR. I was pleased to get him this late. The fact that he's a former Buckeye is a bonus! I'm such a homer.
Round Eight: QB Carson Palmer (Cin) As mentioned earlier, I'm hoping for a healthy Carson Palmer this year. But I'm also hoping I won't have to start him this year other than McNabb's bye week. Week 4 when McNabb gets his break, Palmer and the Bengals play the Browns so I should have a good matchup there.
Round Nine: WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG) Decided to go with a rookie (I am famous for having to have at least one rookie on any fantasy squad I've ever drafted) as my fourth WR. And with the Giants WR corp in flux due to the losses of Plaxico and Toomer, Nicks has a good chance to produce in his rookie season. Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are reportedly entrenched as the starters, but the third receiver job is up for grabs with Nicks in contention with Sinorice Moss and Mario Manningham. A good value in Round 9 I think.Round Ten: RB Laurence Maroney (NE) Had several RBs marked for this pick, but they all went bye bye in the half a dozen picks before mine, so I decided to take a chance on this former first rounder who struggled with injuries last year and didn't see much action. I don't think Fred Taylor will have the impact that other people predict and Sammy Morris is almost as injury-prone. As my fourth RB, Maroney is very easily waived if it looks like he won't produce.
Round Eleven: TE Zach Miller (Oak) Waited and waited for a TE because the value on them this year is extremely poor. Other than Witten, Gates, or Gonzalez, they all pretty much look the same to me. Miller and Jamarcus Russell have had plenty of time to get a feel for each other so there is potential here.
Round Twelve: DST Green Bay Packers Here's what I remember from last year: my better half seemed to score twenty plus points per week with her Packers defense! Between Will Blackmon returning punts and Charles Woodson and Nick Collins returning interceptions, it seemed like they racked up a huge amount of DST touchdowns. They've added some stud players in the draft and are poised to improve in other categories as well.Round Thirteen: K Nick Folk (Dal) Darn it, I went and gone done it. I broke down here and grabbed the first kicker off of the board. I figured I was deep enough at QB, RB, and WR to go ahead and grab my last starter here in the 13th. Folk has been a solid scorer his first two years in the league, and I can't see that changing anytime soon.
Round Fourteen: WR Johnny Lee Higgins (Oak) Scored seven touchdowns last year (3 punt return) so even if he IS a Raider, he's still a great value this late in the draft. He's another reason they shouldn't have drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey ... they already had a speedster who could catch the deep ball and make big plays.
Round Fifteen: TE Brandon Pettigrew (Det) Told you I liked my rookies. Okay, so he's a rookie TE for the worst team in the league ..... I think he could put up numbers similar to Dustin Keller or John Carlson last year if given the chance.
Round Sixteen: QB Brady Quinn (Clev) Mr. Irrelevant! Last pick of the draft and I decided to take a third QB. Quinn could be a sleeper if Braylon Edwards quits putting so much pressure on himself and if rookie WR Brian Robiske is a fast learner.
Forecasted Starting Lineup
QB Donovan McNabb
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Joseph Addai
WR Roddy White
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Anthony Gonzalez
TE Zach Miller
K Nick Folk
DST Packers
Favorite Pick: Ochocinco. I really believe he will bounce back and put up better numbers.
Second Guess Pick: Addai. Should I have taken Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, or Marques Colston instead and found a #2 RB in the fourth round?
Overview: I think I did well enough. My quarterbacks all have injury histories, but I'm optimistic that at least TWO can stay healthy this season. I've got solid RBs in Peterson, Addai, and Parker but they all need to get their touchdown totals up. If Donald Brown cuts into Addai's time too much I may have to use Parker as my #2 down the stretch.
My WRs aren't spectacular as such. White will hopefully improve on his TDs and Ochocinco will need to have a comeback year. Gonzalez hopefully will get a bigger share of the Colts offense this year. I'm not expecting a whole lot of points out of my tight ends, but one of them could surprise. And as far as my kicker and defense/special teams ... well, those are always a crap shoot .... even more than the skill positions.
For a twelve team league, I think I did a good job of drafting good depth at QB, RB, and WR. But I've got several players who had bad years last year and need to make comebacks: Addai, Ochocinco, Palmer, and Maroney.
The whole draft process was a lot of fun, even if it did take a couple of weeks to complete. I want to thank Mike Pera for organizing the whole thing and Mark Gram for coming up with the idea. Thanks to rest of my fellow drafters as well for your commentary and chatter on Twitter. I look forward to talking more with all of you throughout. Let's have a fun fantasy season!
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
My Early Top 20 Wide Receiver Rankings
1) Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) In his sixth season, Fitzgerald is one of the best and still very much in his prime. Fresh off of a Super Bowl where if the Cardinals had won, he easily would have been named MVP. His twelve touchdown catches tied for the league lead last year. Even if Anquan Boldin gets traded, I still think Fitzgerald will have a huge season with 1300 yards and double digit TDs.
2) Randy Moss (NE) Give Randy credit, unlike T.O. and Ochocinco he seems to have matured with age and not become a distraction to his team over the last couple of years. If Tom Brady is back healthy and in good form, Moss is easy money for at least a dozen touchdowns .....if not more.
3) Marques Colston (NO) Colston's season was derailed for five games with a broken hand, but when he came back he was still Drew Brees' go-to guy. He may have only caught five TDs but give him a full healthy season and he should have at least ten to eleven. The development of WR Lance Moore will keep teams from doubling Colston. You can't go wrong having the No.1 receiver from the league's best pass offense.
4) Calvin Johnson (Det) Despite playing with three different quarterbacks last season, Johnson tied with Fitzgerald for the league lead in touchdown catches with 12. He was the Lions one bright spot in a disastrous season. It won't matter if it's Dante Culpepper or Matt Stafford at QB, Johnson can make big plays anywhere on the field if he catches the ball.
5) Andre Johnson (Hou) With 115 catches for 1500 yards and 8 scores last year, Johnson finally became a #1 WR in fantasy. He had seven games with ten catches or more and eight games over 100 yards. If QB Matt Schaub stays healthy for a full season, we could easily see Johnson's TD total rise.
6) Roddy White (Atl) His chemistry with then rookie QB Matt Ryan was one of fantasy football's pleasant surprises last year. With 88 catches and over 1300 yards, Ryan looked to him early and often. With a year of playing together under their belt, I won't be surprised if White's totals grow. Especially in the TD department where he had only seven a year ago.
7) Greg Jennings (GB) Jennings did everything he could to make Aaron Rodgers look good last year in wake of Bret Favre's departure. With 80 catches, almost 1300 yards, and 9 scores last year, he was the Packers big play guy on offense. With Rodgers more comfortable under center this year, I see similar numbers out of Jennings in 2009.
8) Reggie Wayne (Ind) His touchdown totals were down last year from 10 in 2007 to only 6 in 2008, but he's still Peyton Manning's main guy in Indianapolis. As long as Manning has a healthier offseason then he did last year, Wayne's numbers should return to 2007 form.
9) Wes Welker (NE) Yes, he only scored 3 touchdowns with Matt Cassell at QB last year, but he caught 111 balls for 1165 yards. Now Tom Brady is back and he should see the end zone a few more times while still racking up the touches. In PPR leagues he's easily a #1 WR, but even in non-PPR leagues he should be more valuable then he was last year.
10) Anquan Boldin (Ariz) His value rises if he gets traded just because wherever he goes, he should be the #1 receiver. But if he stays, he's still a good choice as your first WR, even with Larry Fitzgerald on the same team. Even though he missed three games after almost getting decapitated against the Jets, he still racked up 89 catches and scored 11 times.
11) Roy Williams (Dal) Williams was more than disappointing after being traded to Dallas, catching only 19 passes in ten games. But T.O. has left the building and the onus is on Williams to replace the huge numbers that Owens accounted for. Give him a preseason with the team and time to work with Romo and I think he becomes a borderline #1 receiver or at least a solid #2.
12) Terrell Owens (Buff) He's not a #1 WR anymore, especially in Buffalo where Trent Edwards might be the least talented QB Owens has ever worked with. He'll be more valuable if Buffalo is winning, but if they tank early in the season he'll be next to worthless the rest of the way. Look for him to score 8 or 9 TDs ... if the Bills are in contention throughout.
13) Steve Smith (Car) He's still a huge playmaker, but with the emphasis on the running game in Carolina and inconsistent play from QB Jake Delhomme I'm not sold on him as #1 WR this year. While he did miss the first two games of 2008 due to suspension he still only managed 6 touchdowns. However, you can't discount his 18.2 yards per catch or the fact teams may defend him one on one while loading up the box to stop the run.
14) Dwayne Bowe (KC) The arrival of QB Matt Cassell and the departure of TE Tony Gonzalez makes Bowe a more interesting prospect than in his first two years. With practically nobody else in the KC receiving corp, Bowe should be a shining star. I think this could be a breakout third year for the LSU alum if Cassell is all he's cracked up to be.
15) Chad Ochocinco (Cin) No doubt his numbers plummeted in 2008 mainly due to Carson Palmer's absence. But with a healthy Palmer, Ochocinco has no more excuses. Somebody will have to take some of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's numbers, and I'm not sure Laveranues Coles will be as productive as Housh was. I definitely wouldn't take him as my first WR, but I think his numbers will definitely bounce back this year.
16) DeSean Jackson (Phil) He had a solid rookie year with 912 yards and a couple of scores (minus that one he SHOULD have had against the Cowboys)but this year he's prepped to be the #1 receiver for a team I feel will have one of the more explosive offenses in 2009. "Action" Jackson may be in for a huge sophmore season.
17) Braylon Edwards (Clev) After a huge 2007, Edwards got a huge case of the dropsies last year. He was probably the biggest WR disappointment in fantasy football. Some claim he put too much pressure on himself to produce huge numbers last year and it took away from his concentration. However, if the Browns decide on a QB and stick with him from Day One, I can see Braylon bouncing back to at least be a serviceable #2 WR. Hopefully he's learned his lesson.
18) Brandon Marshall (Den) Would have ranked him much higher if the Broncos hadn't screwed around with their QB situation and dumped Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton. His offseason issues are also starting to raise a red flag. All in all, this has the makings of a disaster. Buyer Beware.
19) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea) I've never been a big Matt Hasselbeck fan, but for the first time in a long while, he has a legitimate playmaker to throw to. Housh should be able to top 1000 yards and score 7-8 touchdowns in Seattle this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) He takes over for Marvin Harrison as the starter opposite Reggie Wayne. I like him for the wrong reasons, I admit ... 1) He's a Buckeye. 2) It's his third year. 3) Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball. 4) He's a Buckeye. Seriously though, he's got the smarts and the hands to be a solid #3 fantasy receiver, if not a #2.
As always, comments here or on Twitter (http://twitter.com/vice2020) are most welcome.
2) Randy Moss (NE) Give Randy credit, unlike T.O. and Ochocinco he seems to have matured with age and not become a distraction to his team over the last couple of years. If Tom Brady is back healthy and in good form, Moss is easy money for at least a dozen touchdowns .....if not more.
3) Marques Colston (NO) Colston's season was derailed for five games with a broken hand, but when he came back he was still Drew Brees' go-to guy. He may have only caught five TDs but give him a full healthy season and he should have at least ten to eleven. The development of WR Lance Moore will keep teams from doubling Colston. You can't go wrong having the No.1 receiver from the league's best pass offense.
4) Calvin Johnson (Det) Despite playing with three different quarterbacks last season, Johnson tied with Fitzgerald for the league lead in touchdown catches with 12. He was the Lions one bright spot in a disastrous season. It won't matter if it's Dante Culpepper or Matt Stafford at QB, Johnson can make big plays anywhere on the field if he catches the ball.
5) Andre Johnson (Hou) With 115 catches for 1500 yards and 8 scores last year, Johnson finally became a #1 WR in fantasy. He had seven games with ten catches or more and eight games over 100 yards. If QB Matt Schaub stays healthy for a full season, we could easily see Johnson's TD total rise.
6) Roddy White (Atl) His chemistry with then rookie QB Matt Ryan was one of fantasy football's pleasant surprises last year. With 88 catches and over 1300 yards, Ryan looked to him early and often. With a year of playing together under their belt, I won't be surprised if White's totals grow. Especially in the TD department where he had only seven a year ago.
7) Greg Jennings (GB) Jennings did everything he could to make Aaron Rodgers look good last year in wake of Bret Favre's departure. With 80 catches, almost 1300 yards, and 9 scores last year, he was the Packers big play guy on offense. With Rodgers more comfortable under center this year, I see similar numbers out of Jennings in 2009.
8) Reggie Wayne (Ind) His touchdown totals were down last year from 10 in 2007 to only 6 in 2008, but he's still Peyton Manning's main guy in Indianapolis. As long as Manning has a healthier offseason then he did last year, Wayne's numbers should return to 2007 form.
9) Wes Welker (NE) Yes, he only scored 3 touchdowns with Matt Cassell at QB last year, but he caught 111 balls for 1165 yards. Now Tom Brady is back and he should see the end zone a few more times while still racking up the touches. In PPR leagues he's easily a #1 WR, but even in non-PPR leagues he should be more valuable then he was last year.
10) Anquan Boldin (Ariz) His value rises if he gets traded just because wherever he goes, he should be the #1 receiver. But if he stays, he's still a good choice as your first WR, even with Larry Fitzgerald on the same team. Even though he missed three games after almost getting decapitated against the Jets, he still racked up 89 catches and scored 11 times.
11) Roy Williams (Dal) Williams was more than disappointing after being traded to Dallas, catching only 19 passes in ten games. But T.O. has left the building and the onus is on Williams to replace the huge numbers that Owens accounted for. Give him a preseason with the team and time to work with Romo and I think he becomes a borderline #1 receiver or at least a solid #2.
12) Terrell Owens (Buff) He's not a #1 WR anymore, especially in Buffalo where Trent Edwards might be the least talented QB Owens has ever worked with. He'll be more valuable if Buffalo is winning, but if they tank early in the season he'll be next to worthless the rest of the way. Look for him to score 8 or 9 TDs ... if the Bills are in contention throughout.
13) Steve Smith (Car) He's still a huge playmaker, but with the emphasis on the running game in Carolina and inconsistent play from QB Jake Delhomme I'm not sold on him as #1 WR this year. While he did miss the first two games of 2008 due to suspension he still only managed 6 touchdowns. However, you can't discount his 18.2 yards per catch or the fact teams may defend him one on one while loading up the box to stop the run.
14) Dwayne Bowe (KC) The arrival of QB Matt Cassell and the departure of TE Tony Gonzalez makes Bowe a more interesting prospect than in his first two years. With practically nobody else in the KC receiving corp, Bowe should be a shining star. I think this could be a breakout third year for the LSU alum if Cassell is all he's cracked up to be.
15) Chad Ochocinco (Cin) No doubt his numbers plummeted in 2008 mainly due to Carson Palmer's absence. But with a healthy Palmer, Ochocinco has no more excuses. Somebody will have to take some of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's numbers, and I'm not sure Laveranues Coles will be as productive as Housh was. I definitely wouldn't take him as my first WR, but I think his numbers will definitely bounce back this year.
16) DeSean Jackson (Phil) He had a solid rookie year with 912 yards and a couple of scores (minus that one he SHOULD have had against the Cowboys)but this year he's prepped to be the #1 receiver for a team I feel will have one of the more explosive offenses in 2009. "Action" Jackson may be in for a huge sophmore season.
17) Braylon Edwards (Clev) After a huge 2007, Edwards got a huge case of the dropsies last year. He was probably the biggest WR disappointment in fantasy football. Some claim he put too much pressure on himself to produce huge numbers last year and it took away from his concentration. However, if the Browns decide on a QB and stick with him from Day One, I can see Braylon bouncing back to at least be a serviceable #2 WR. Hopefully he's learned his lesson.
18) Brandon Marshall (Den) Would have ranked him much higher if the Broncos hadn't screwed around with their QB situation and dumped Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton. His offseason issues are also starting to raise a red flag. All in all, this has the makings of a disaster. Buyer Beware.
19) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea) I've never been a big Matt Hasselbeck fan, but for the first time in a long while, he has a legitimate playmaker to throw to. Housh should be able to top 1000 yards and score 7-8 touchdowns in Seattle this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) He takes over for Marvin Harrison as the starter opposite Reggie Wayne. I like him for the wrong reasons, I admit ... 1) He's a Buckeye. 2) It's his third year. 3) Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball. 4) He's a Buckeye. Seriously though, he's got the smarts and the hands to be a solid #3 fantasy receiver, if not a #2.
As always, comments here or on Twitter (http://twitter.com/vice2020) are most welcome.
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