Last week I did quarterbacks, this week, the ever popular running backs. All comments and opinions appreciated.
1) Adrian Peterson (Min) Last year's NFL Rushing Leader and probably the player who will go first in the majority of fantasy drafts this year. He only scored 10 TDs and only caught 21 passes last year but both are bound to improve .... especially if the Vikings sign Bret Favre, which would make opposing defenses fear the deep pass and possibly open up a few more running lanes for Peterson. He had only one game last year with less than 76 yards rushing.
2) Chris Johnson (Ten) Last year everyone was scratching their heads when the Titans picked Johnson in the first round. But after a rookie season 1,228 yards on the ground, 43 receptions, and 10 total TDs, Johnson made the Titans look good and was the catalyst for a team that went 13-3 and led the league in total offense(YPG). True, LenDale White will steal some TDs from him but Johnson will get the majority of touches and certainly have a larger role in the passing game.
3) Michael Turner (Atl) "Burner" took to his role as a featured back like a fish to water. He was second in the league with 1,699 rushing yards and second in total touchdowns with 17. His 376 carries are a concern though, will he be worn down coming into this year? He was not much of a factor in the passing game, giving way to Jerious Norwood on third downs. But unlike some of the other top backs, he is THE go-to guy at the goal-line. He should score in the double digits again this year.
4) DeAngelo Williams (Car) One of the big surprises in fantasy football last year, Williams led the league in total TDs with 20 to go along with 1,515 yards on the ground. The real shock is that he did it on only 273 carries, averaging 5.5 yards on the ground. However, having second year RB Johnathan Stewart stealing carries and TDs makes me think Williams won't be scoring twenty touchdowns again this year. But the upside is, Stewart helps keep Williams fresh therefore keeping him at his best.
5) Matt Forte (Chi) Cedric Benson's abrupt departure from Chicago gave Forte the starting nod right out of the gate and he delivered like no one expected. Over 1700 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs with 63 receptions made him a must have last year. This year with QB Jay Cutler on board, but with no clear cut No.1 WR, I expect Forte's numbers to stay about the same, especially in the reception amount. He will be in on the majority of of offensive snaps.
6) Steven Jackson (STL) Despite missing five games to injury Jackson still managed to post over 1400 total yards and 8 touchdowns last year. If he could stay healthy for sixteen games, he is a sure fire #1 RB on any fantasy team. More than likely, he will BE the Rams offense this year if he can stay on the field.
7) Brandon Jacobs (NYG) With Derrick Ward gone to Tampa, more of the workload will be given to Jacobs. He scored 15 touchdowns last year and ran for over a 1000 yards despite missing two games to injury. Even if Ahmad Bradshaw and others see more action, Jacobs will be THE goal-line back and get the majority of touchdowns.
8) Brian Westbrook (Phil) Will this be the year he falls and doesn't get up? He will be 30 years old when the season starts and a long list of injuries makes you wonder if he can go another full season. However, his ability and yearly production are undeniable. Rookie RB LeSean McCoy could be a key factor in keeping Westbrook healthy.
9) LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) You can't consider him one of the top five backs anymore due to his age and a growing list of ailments but given what he's done over his career, you can't quite count him out just yet. He's still a thousand yard back who still gets tough yards and still makes a lot of catches out of the backfield.
10) Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac) With Fred Taylor gone, Jones-Drew becomes the focal point of the Jags offense. I was really shocked to see him go first in one of expert mock drafts this week because I'm skeptical he can be a workload back for sixteen games. However, his numbers can't be argued with over his first three seasons. (38 total touchdowns and almost 4000 yards rushing and receiving.) He's a threat whenever he touches the ball.
11) Joseph Addai (Ind) Injuries derailed him last year, limiting him to twelve games and just 544 yards on the ground. However, he still managed to score 7 touchdowns and should still be the guy getting the goal line carries for the ever explosive Colt offense. Rookie RB Donald Brown will cut into his touches between the twenties.
12) Frank Gore (SF) Only played in fourteen games last year but still managed 1,036 yards and 8 total TDs. He'll be the focal point of a 49ers offense with questions at QB. RB Glen Coffee was drafted to spell Gore, but I don't think he'll be ready for a Johnathan Stewart-like role in the offense.
13) Ronnie Brown (Mia) The man who put the spotlight on the ever popular Wildcat offense when he torched the Patriots for 113 yards and four touchdowns (5 if you include he passed for one.)in Week 3 should be ready to take a bigger chunk of the carries over Ricky Williams this year. I look for Brown to exceed 1000 yards and have at least ten TDs.
14) Steve Slaton (Hou) A rookie surprise when Slaton exploded for over 1600 total yards and ten touchdowns. Not viewed as an every down back due to his size, Slaton shocked us all by getting over 300 touches. However, he is not a power back and seems to have trouble in short yardage situations. I'll be surprised if he exceeds or even matches his rookie year totals. He's still a solid #2 RB though.
15) Clinton Portis (Wash) Portis may be one of the grittiest players in the league, playing through injuries and still managing to produce good numbers. If he can stay healthy, he is a top ten back. He's a strong #2 back in any case.
16) Marion Barber (Dal) The Barbarian had some injury problems last year but he is still the goal-line back for the Cowboys. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice may cut into his touches enough to once again prevent him from reaching 1000 yards.
17) Cedric Benson (Cin) Benson's career was resurrected when he signed with the Bengals in mid season as led them in rushing with 747 yards. With Carson Palmer back and healthy, the offense should be much better, and I predict Rudi Johnson-like numbers for the former first round pick.
18) Derrick Ward (TB) Could be this year's Michael Turner. The Bucs got him to boost their running game and with Warrick Dunn gone, Cadillac Williams out at least half of the season, that leaves only Earnest Graham to take carries away. Ward had a 1000 yards rushing splitting carries with Brandon Jacobs last year ..... he should very welll be able to sharing with Graham.
19) Knowshon Moreno (Den) Will be the first rookie RB off of the board in most fantasy leagues. IF Josh McDaniels gives him the touches and doesn't play the RBBC game that his mentor Belichick does in NE, he should easily be a Top 20 RB. But with Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan in the mix, he may not have the numbers we'd like. Still, had to have a rookie in my Top 20 and I'd have been a homer if I'd listed "Beanie" ahead of Knowshon.
20) LenDale White (Ten) Goal-line back for one of the best offenses in the league last year. While splitting time with rookie sensation Chris Johnson, White didn't get near the carries or yards that was expected. But he did manage 15 rushing touchdowns which included an 80 yarder against the Chiefs. I don't think he'll score as many TDs this year, but he should be considered as a low-end #2 back.
Feel free to to comment, I'd love to get feedback.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Sunday, May 10, 2009
My Early Quarterback Predictions.
With the draft a couple of weeks behind us, and all of the fantasy gurus hard at work on their rankings for the upcoming season I thought I'd give my preliminary thoughts on who I think are the best quarterbacks to have on your fantasy team in 2009.
1) Drew Brees (NO) Despite various injuries to primary targets such as Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, and Reggie Bush Brees threw for a phenomenal 5,067 yards last year to go along with 34 touchdowns. WR Lance Moore had a breakout year as the second receiver with 928 yards and ten scores. Former first round pick Robert Meachem showed improvement and Devery Henderson continued to be the deep threat, averaging over 24 yards per catch. With so few changes in personnel in the offseason, there is no reason Brees can't exceed his TD totals while continuing to pass for a lot of yards. If Colston can stay healthy it's almost a guarantee.
2) Tom Brady (NE) When Brady collapsed to the turf just a few minutes into the first game of the year, it was the "Injury Felt Around The Fantasy World". (I was one of those that felt it.) And while yes, he's coming off of a major injury, he's still got an elite receiving duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. He's got a new deep threat in Joey Galloway and nice red zone target in TE Ben Watson. If he stays healthy I believe he can come close to the numbers he put up in 2007.
3) Kurt Warner (Ariz) This ranking will change if the Cardinals decide to trade WR Anquan Boldin. But with Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and slot receiver Steve Breaston, Warner put up huge numbers last year. Of course, the lack of a running game helped boost Warner's stats last year and that area is bound to improve with the coming of rookie RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, but I can still see 30+ touchdowns from the old man.
4) Donovan McNabb (Phil) I'm hoping to get some debate about this choice (agreement would be nice too). The Eagles went out and got some weapons for McNabb in the draft in WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy, and TE Cornelius Ingram. Add them to the always dangerous Brian Westbrook, up and coming WR DeSean Jackson, reliable vet WR Kevin Curtis, and red zone TD threat TE Bret Celek you have the makings of a high scoring offense. Plus you have to figure McNabb is still fired up about his Week 12 benching against the Ravens last year and all of the talk of him being traded. I think he'll be out to prove to everyone he can still get the job done. I consider him a very viable starter on any fantasy squad.
5) Aaron Rodgers (GB) I for one was pleasantly surprised by how Rodgers performed under intense scrutiny (Thanks to the Bret Favre Retirement Saga)last year. He had his bad moments, but his production was pretty consistent. With 28 touchdowns through the air and 4 more on the ground, Rodgers ended up being a solid starter on many fantasy teams (including mine)last year. Now that he has a solid footing in the offense and a nice tandem in WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, I can see him matching and maybe even exceeding those numbers in 2009.
6) Peyton Manning (Ind) Normally predicted as a Top 3 QB annually, I think he may slide a bit this year. Marvin Harrison is gone and there is no proven No. 3 receiver in Indy. The Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round to pair with Joseph Addai in a more run oriented attack like that of Carolina and others. Manning still has WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark so he will continue to be a solid starter, but the days of gargantuan numbers may be in the rear-view mirror.
7) Tony Romo (Dal) Some people feel he is a Top 5 QB this year, but I'm not so convinced. Say what you want about Terrell Owens being a distraction or how many balls he dropped, he was still a huge playmaker that is hard to replace. WR Roy Williams is a legitimate No. 1 receiever and TE Jason Witten is one of the best tight ends in the league. But who are the number two and three WRs? Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin? I'm not convinced they can replace the numbers T.O. has put up over the last three years. I like Romo as a starter, but not quite as high on him as other folks.
8) Matt Ryan (Atl) After quite possibly the most solid rookie season of any quarterback in recent NFL history, my expectations of Matt Ryan are quite high for his sophmore season. He already has a great connection with WR Roddy White and now has a legitimate red zone TD threat in TE Tony Gonzalez. And while RB Michael Turner's 17 touchdowns helped limit Ryan to only 16 passing TDs, I can't see Turner being able to repeat that total. I can see Ryan throwing around ten to twelve more touchdowns than last year.
9) Philip Rivers (SD) Rivers shocked everyone last year by putting up 4,000 passing yards with 34 touchdowns. WR Vincent Jackson finally emerged as a legitimate threat while TE Antonio Gates continued to be a solid go-to guy in the red zone. Add Chris Chambers, Darren Sproles, Malcolm Floyd, and of course LaDainian Tomlinson to the mix. I'm not convinced he can repeat those numbers ... but then I didn't think he'd even come close to them LAST year. So at least for now, I have to say he's a solid starter.
10) Eli Manning (NYG) While Eli had the lowest TD total of his career since his rookie season, that was due in part to the dominant running game of the Giants. With Derrick Ward gone to the Buccaneers, the passing game might just get a boost, especially with the drafting of WRs Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden plus TE Travis Beckham and RB Andre Brown, who was regarded as the best pass catching RB coming out of the draft. WRs Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon return as well as TE Kevin Boss. Eli should be a viable starter or at least a very solid backup.
Of course, things can change between now and August. With rumors of high profile WRs still being on the block, it's always possible that other QBs lose value ... or gain value as the weeks wear on.
1) Drew Brees (NO) Despite various injuries to primary targets such as Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, and Reggie Bush Brees threw for a phenomenal 5,067 yards last year to go along with 34 touchdowns. WR Lance Moore had a breakout year as the second receiver with 928 yards and ten scores. Former first round pick Robert Meachem showed improvement and Devery Henderson continued to be the deep threat, averaging over 24 yards per catch. With so few changes in personnel in the offseason, there is no reason Brees can't exceed his TD totals while continuing to pass for a lot of yards. If Colston can stay healthy it's almost a guarantee.
2) Tom Brady (NE) When Brady collapsed to the turf just a few minutes into the first game of the year, it was the "Injury Felt Around The Fantasy World". (I was one of those that felt it.) And while yes, he's coming off of a major injury, he's still got an elite receiving duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. He's got a new deep threat in Joey Galloway and nice red zone target in TE Ben Watson. If he stays healthy I believe he can come close to the numbers he put up in 2007.
3) Kurt Warner (Ariz) This ranking will change if the Cardinals decide to trade WR Anquan Boldin. But with Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and slot receiver Steve Breaston, Warner put up huge numbers last year. Of course, the lack of a running game helped boost Warner's stats last year and that area is bound to improve with the coming of rookie RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, but I can still see 30+ touchdowns from the old man.
4) Donovan McNabb (Phil) I'm hoping to get some debate about this choice (agreement would be nice too). The Eagles went out and got some weapons for McNabb in the draft in WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy, and TE Cornelius Ingram. Add them to the always dangerous Brian Westbrook, up and coming WR DeSean Jackson, reliable vet WR Kevin Curtis, and red zone TD threat TE Bret Celek you have the makings of a high scoring offense. Plus you have to figure McNabb is still fired up about his Week 12 benching against the Ravens last year and all of the talk of him being traded. I think he'll be out to prove to everyone he can still get the job done. I consider him a very viable starter on any fantasy squad.
5) Aaron Rodgers (GB) I for one was pleasantly surprised by how Rodgers performed under intense scrutiny (Thanks to the Bret Favre Retirement Saga)last year. He had his bad moments, but his production was pretty consistent. With 28 touchdowns through the air and 4 more on the ground, Rodgers ended up being a solid starter on many fantasy teams (including mine)last year. Now that he has a solid footing in the offense and a nice tandem in WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, I can see him matching and maybe even exceeding those numbers in 2009.
6) Peyton Manning (Ind) Normally predicted as a Top 3 QB annually, I think he may slide a bit this year. Marvin Harrison is gone and there is no proven No. 3 receiver in Indy. The Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round to pair with Joseph Addai in a more run oriented attack like that of Carolina and others. Manning still has WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark so he will continue to be a solid starter, but the days of gargantuan numbers may be in the rear-view mirror.
7) Tony Romo (Dal) Some people feel he is a Top 5 QB this year, but I'm not so convinced. Say what you want about Terrell Owens being a distraction or how many balls he dropped, he was still a huge playmaker that is hard to replace. WR Roy Williams is a legitimate No. 1 receiever and TE Jason Witten is one of the best tight ends in the league. But who are the number two and three WRs? Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin? I'm not convinced they can replace the numbers T.O. has put up over the last three years. I like Romo as a starter, but not quite as high on him as other folks.
8) Matt Ryan (Atl) After quite possibly the most solid rookie season of any quarterback in recent NFL history, my expectations of Matt Ryan are quite high for his sophmore season. He already has a great connection with WR Roddy White and now has a legitimate red zone TD threat in TE Tony Gonzalez. And while RB Michael Turner's 17 touchdowns helped limit Ryan to only 16 passing TDs, I can't see Turner being able to repeat that total. I can see Ryan throwing around ten to twelve more touchdowns than last year.
9) Philip Rivers (SD) Rivers shocked everyone last year by putting up 4,000 passing yards with 34 touchdowns. WR Vincent Jackson finally emerged as a legitimate threat while TE Antonio Gates continued to be a solid go-to guy in the red zone. Add Chris Chambers, Darren Sproles, Malcolm Floyd, and of course LaDainian Tomlinson to the mix. I'm not convinced he can repeat those numbers ... but then I didn't think he'd even come close to them LAST year. So at least for now, I have to say he's a solid starter.
10) Eli Manning (NYG) While Eli had the lowest TD total of his career since his rookie season, that was due in part to the dominant running game of the Giants. With Derrick Ward gone to the Buccaneers, the passing game might just get a boost, especially with the drafting of WRs Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden plus TE Travis Beckham and RB Andre Brown, who was regarded as the best pass catching RB coming out of the draft. WRs Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon return as well as TE Kevin Boss. Eli should be a viable starter or at least a very solid backup.
Of course, things can change between now and August. With rumors of high profile WRs still being on the block, it's always possible that other QBs lose value ... or gain value as the weeks wear on.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
2009 NFL Draft Observations
I'm no Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, or Ron Jaworski. I'm just the average (Raiders) fan who likes to think he knows a little bit about the NFL. I'm a bit biased when discussing Ohio State players because I'm a lifetime Buckeye. I'm also a bit disgruntled when talking about the Raiders because I'm a fan and am tired of years of frustration and stupid choices. That being said, here's what I like and dislike from this year's NFL Draft.
Teams I thought did really well this year are the Bengals, Browns, Packers, Eagles, and Lions. Bengals hit just about every need. A starting OT in Andre Smith, a steal in LB Rey Maualuga in the second,a talented DE in Michael Johnson (3rd round), a possible starting TE in Chase Coffman (3rd round), and a center in Johnathan Luigs (4th round)... all hit crucial needs. The Browns loaded up on picks by trading down three times in the first round and still got the best center in the draft in Alex Mack (1st round)and two decent WRS in Brian Robiske and Mohamed Massaquoi (2nd round). The Pack got two top defensive prospects in DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews to solidify that new 3-4 defense they will be using. The Eagles got themselves a stud receiver in Jeremy Maclin then also got a RB in LeSean McCoy to split with aging Brian Westbrook. The Lions got their QB of the future in Matt Stafford and a starting TE in Brandon Pettigrew.
I didn't like what the Broncos, Jets, and especially ... the Raiders did. The Broncos added several free agent RBs like Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter, and J.J. Arrington .... then draft Knowshon Moreno?? Bet Jordan and Buckhalter are reconsidering signing with the Broncos now after that ... AND the whole Cutler fiasco. The Jets better pray that Sanchez is everything they hoped for because they gave up a truckload to get him. I'm not high on Sanchez at all.
Then you have the Raiders.
We could have had Michael Crabtree ... or Jeremy Maclin. But we took Darrius Heyward-Bey ... the man with the fastest 40 time ... just because he's fast. Fine ... I could live with that if they had traded DOWN to get him! Come on Al, Darrius would have lasted at least five more picks at least. I understand that speed kills and Darrius most likely fits a vertical passing game ... but did you have to use the seventh overall pick on him?? And I won't even discuss the second round pick S Mike Marshall ..... BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW WHO HE IS!! Heck, Mel Kiper BARELY knew who he was! I will say this ... if either of these guys pan out and make the Pro Bowl, I'll eat a whole flock full of crows. But I'm still smarting from the drafting of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round a few years ago and am very tired of first round busts. I'm sure I'm not the only Raiders fan to feel that way.
Okay, I'm done venting about it. Now we'll just wait and see what happens in Oakland the next couple of years.
As for the rest of the draft, it was fun and interesting as usual. I'll talk more about it later.
Teams I thought did really well this year are the Bengals, Browns, Packers, Eagles, and Lions. Bengals hit just about every need. A starting OT in Andre Smith, a steal in LB Rey Maualuga in the second,a talented DE in Michael Johnson (3rd round), a possible starting TE in Chase Coffman (3rd round), and a center in Johnathan Luigs (4th round)... all hit crucial needs. The Browns loaded up on picks by trading down three times in the first round and still got the best center in the draft in Alex Mack (1st round)and two decent WRS in Brian Robiske and Mohamed Massaquoi (2nd round). The Pack got two top defensive prospects in DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews to solidify that new 3-4 defense they will be using. The Eagles got themselves a stud receiver in Jeremy Maclin then also got a RB in LeSean McCoy to split with aging Brian Westbrook. The Lions got their QB of the future in Matt Stafford and a starting TE in Brandon Pettigrew.
I didn't like what the Broncos, Jets, and especially ... the Raiders did. The Broncos added several free agent RBs like Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter, and J.J. Arrington .... then draft Knowshon Moreno?? Bet Jordan and Buckhalter are reconsidering signing with the Broncos now after that ... AND the whole Cutler fiasco. The Jets better pray that Sanchez is everything they hoped for because they gave up a truckload to get him. I'm not high on Sanchez at all.
Then you have the Raiders.
We could have had Michael Crabtree ... or Jeremy Maclin. But we took Darrius Heyward-Bey ... the man with the fastest 40 time ... just because he's fast. Fine ... I could live with that if they had traded DOWN to get him! Come on Al, Darrius would have lasted at least five more picks at least. I understand that speed kills and Darrius most likely fits a vertical passing game ... but did you have to use the seventh overall pick on him?? And I won't even discuss the second round pick S Mike Marshall ..... BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW WHO HE IS!! Heck, Mel Kiper BARELY knew who he was! I will say this ... if either of these guys pan out and make the Pro Bowl, I'll eat a whole flock full of crows. But I'm still smarting from the drafting of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round a few years ago and am very tired of first round busts. I'm sure I'm not the only Raiders fan to feel that way.
Okay, I'm done venting about it. Now we'll just wait and see what happens in Oakland the next couple of years.
As for the rest of the draft, it was fun and interesting as usual. I'll talk more about it later.
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