The Over And Under

A few notes on some players I think are getting stiffed or spoiled in value in fantasy rankings this year:

OVER

RB LeSean McCoy, Phil His current ADP has him going in the mid thirties and in the mid teens overall at the RB position. But with Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver stealing the short yardage and goal line carries and add the fact that Philadelphia is more of a pass first offense, I see McCoy as more of a RB3 than the RB2 he is being drafted as. Think of Julius Jones with the Cowboys a few years ago when Marion Barber was getting all of the red zone work. I'm thinking we might see a similar scenario this year in Philly.

RB Jahvid Best, Det Everyone is touting him as a Chris Johnson clone with big play ability. His ADP has him going anywhere from 3rd round to 5th round in most drafts. Some rankings I've seen have him rated in the top 20 overall at RB. And the fact that Kevin Smith most likely won't be 100% healthy for the start of the season makes him a tempting prospect to say the least. But my alarm goes off when I realize A) He has a serious history of injuries including a major concussion last year that damn near looked like it killed him and B) He plays behind a Lions O-Line that can barely open a ZipLoc bag let alone holes for anyone to run through. If you draft him as anything higher than a RB3, you've got more stones than I do.

WR Steve Smith, Car I've always been a big fan of his but let's look at the facts. 1) The Panthers will be a run-oriented offense with the tandem of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams carrying the bulk of the load. 2) Neither Matt Moore or rookie Jimmy Claussen have the experience or the deep throw to make use of Smith's speed. 3) Smith is an injury waiting to happen, whether it be on the NFL field, or the touch football field. While ADP projections have him going in the mid fourth round and mid teens overall at the WR ranks, I'm not going to draft him as anything more than a bench slot behind my starters.

UNDER

QB Carson Palmer, Cin Palmer had one of his worst seasons last year, especially towards the end. But this year I feel he will be back to 100% health and that the Bengals won't be relying on the running game quite as much. Antonio Bryant was a good pickup, but I think the two key aquisitions for the Bengals were in the draft. Namely TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, who both have trememdous pass catching skills. If you are going to wait for a quarterback until the 6-10th round, Palmer could be a steal.

WR Eddie Royal, Den He went from 91 catches, 980 yards, and 5 TDs in 2008 to totally irrelevant in 2009 with only 37-345 and zero touchdowns.But here's the good news: Brandon Marshall and his 205 catches the last two years is gone. Royal's 79 targets last year WILL go up, despite the presence of rookie Demarius Thomas who I do not believe will be fully ready for the start of the season. Jabar Gaffney will start opposite Royal but is not a WR#1 by any means. Whether it be Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, or Tim Tebow at the helm... the Bronco passing game is going to need to get the ball to Royal to succeed.

RB Felix Jones, Dal A lot of people are red flagging him as injury prone. And the presence of Marion Barber and Tashard Choice also lead detractors to believe he may not be someone to have in their starting lineups in 2009. But Jones tied Chris Johnson in YPC with 5.9 last year (granted, he only got a third of the carries that Johnson did) and can be a weapon in the passing game. He has big play ability that I would be willing to chance as RB2. Injury prone sminjury prone, if worst comes to worst I'll draft him high and get Choice or Barber as handcuff. The Dallas offense is going to be explosive this year and having a key guy like Jones on your roster will help you soar to the playoffs.

My Auction-osophy

Well, I know it's been awhile since my last post but I've been pretty busy with work and other projects. Time to do some catching up.
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IFFL 2009 Final Update

Ended up losing to the Green Bay Dynasty in the playoffs due to Peyton Manning going completely bonkers against the Jaguars. A real disappointing ending to what was one of my best regular seasons ever. The Dynasty went on to destroy the Bruney Broncos in the Championship. Congrats again John.

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FEXDA II Expert Dynasty League
I recently finished a 16 team dynasty auction league in which other contributors included guys from some pretty prominent fantasy websites. FantasyFootball.com, FantasyGuru, The Huddle, and others were all involved in a month long auction. It was a lot of fun and very excruciating all at the same time. The total cap amount was $400 in which to draft 42 players. 6 of these players had to be rookies. No more, no less. Here's my team and what I paid for each player:

QB	Chad Henne	Mia	$31.00	I like his chances to be a top 15 QB with Brandon Marshall arriving via Denver.
QB	Vince Young	Tenn	$12.00	Should be a solid backup. Might have his best year yet statistically. Possible suspension for assault is irritating.
QB	Kerry Collins	Tenn	$1.00	Grabbed him before VY's incident. Now am glad I did. Protects against a suspension. Good handcuff either way.
RB	Ray Rice	Bal	$80.00	In a PPR league he should be well worth the price tag.
RB	Matt Forte	Chi	$42.00	Had a sophomore slump in 2009. Hoping for a bounce back.
RB	Reggie Bush	NO	$17.00	Not a bad price for a multi-dimensional RB#3.
RB	Javon Ringer	Tenn	$4.00	If CJ holds out or gets injured, I could have a huge bargain.
RB	Willis McGahee	Bal	$4.00	A $4 handcuff for my $80 franchise player. Viable as an emergency start too.
RB	Mike Bell	Phil	$2.00	Could be a sleeper if LeSean McCoy stumbles in Philly..
RB	Leonard Weaver	Phil	$1.00	Not a sexy pick but was surprisingly productive in the Philly offense last year.
WR	Michael Crabtree	SF	$55.00	Yeah I probably overpaid but I targeted him as THE WR I had to have.
WR	Kenny Britt	Tenn	$27.00	Again, paid a steep price for a 2nd year WR. Should be worth it in the long run.
WR	Brandon LaFell*	Car	$7.00	He has a great chance at winning starting job this year. He and Clausen may hook up for years.
WR	Mohamed Massaquoi	Cle	$6.00	Another 2nd year WR who has a decent chance at being THE guy.
WR	Johnny Knox	Chi	$11.00	Overpaid for him, but love him in a Mike Martz offense.
WR	Earl Bennett	Chi	$2.00	Between him or Knox I should have a strong Chic WR.
WR	Brad Smith	NYJ	$1.00	Purely a depth pick. Won't see enough action behind other Jet WRs to merit a start. Possible trade bait.
WR	Deon Butler	Sea	$1.00	Could be Seattle's slot receiver. If not this year then next.
TE	Jermaine Gresham*	Cin	$7.00	Good price for him I thought. Cincinnati's first real pass catching TE in years.
TE	Ben Watson	Cle	$1.00	Won't be a fantasy stud, but like him as a spot starter if Gresham is slow to develop.
TE	Daniel Fells	Stl	$1.00	Second year TE showed promise as a rookie. Possibly Sam Bradford's go-to guy?
PK	Connor Barth	TB	$1.00	His three 50 yard FG day vs. Miami last year stood out for me. Can't beat the price.
PK	Josh Scobee	Jac	$1.00	Needed another kicker. Got one. End of story here.
DE	Will Smith	NO	$5.00	One of my favorite former Buckeyes. Paid a little too much for him, but I'm pleased.
DE	Matt Shaunessy	Oak	$1.00	Won a starting spot in his rookie year. Improvement in 2010 a good probability.
DE	Carlos Dunlap*	Cin	$4.00	Won't be a starter this year, but could be valuable down the road.
DE	Alex Carrington*	Buff	$2.00	Another developmental rookie that I hope becomes a starter eventually.
LB	James Laurinitis	STL	$22.00	Wanted him badly and overpaid for him, but he will be my IDP anchor for awhile.
LB	Rolando McClain*	Oak	$20.00	Will be a starting LB for me (and the Raiders) hopefully for many MANY years.
LB	Demarcus Ware	Dal	$6.00	Not a horrible price for a Pro Bowl sack machine LB.
LB	A.J. Hawk	GB	$3.00	Another of my favorite Buckeyes. Not bad as my 4th LB. Needs to step up a bit.
LB	Tamba Hali	KC	$1.00	Converted DE had 8.5 sacks last year. Hoping for more this year.
LB	Gerald Hayes	Ariz	$1.00	Should benefit from the departure of Karlos Dansby. Statistically speaking that is.
CB	Vontae Davis	Mia	$2.00	2nd year CB has big play potential. Could be a longtime starter for me.
CB	Mike Jenkins	Dal	$1.00	Had a solid sophomore season in 09. Looking for him to improve.
CB	Champ Bailey	Den	$1.00	He's a bit long in the tooth, but the price was right.
S	Ed Reed	Bal	$1.00	Perennial Pro-Bowler still has gas left in the tank despite injuries last year. I hope.
S	Michael Griffin	Tenn	$1.00	Young safety that can make big plays.
S	Antrell Rolle	NYG	$1.00	Should have a decent year for the Giants.
S	Taylor Mays*	SF	$8.00	Has something to prove after being snubbed by Pete Carroll and the Seahawks.

This was my first ever dynasty AUCTION draft. All other auctions I have ever participated in were one year only drafts. But my philosophy in auction drafts has always been the same: Be aggressive to get who you want, even if it means overpaying. Might sound reckless to some ... ok, maybe it is. But in my mind an auction league is an opportunity to fill a roster with players I like or want ... and their acquisition is totally in my own power. And on this roster I have many players I like and wanted going forward. For me that's what's really important. I'd rather lose with players I hand picked than lose with guys I was forced to settle for. I prefer winning with guys I targeted and got, rather than win with guys I had little faith in but took because they were the best available.

 My first priority going into the auction was to nab a top five RB no matter what the cost. And since all the top backs came out fast and furious this was done fairly quickly. Ray Rice for $80.00 (20% of my total cap) was my first player acquired. I was pleased to be able to get him.

This being a dynasty league, one thing I told myself and was able to hold to .. I was NOT going to pay more than $1.00 for any player leaning towards the downside of his career. And to me that means a player with nine years or more in the NFL. I managed to almost avoid drafting these player altogether, but only paid $1.00 each for Kerry Collins, Champ Bailey, and Ed Reed. Abjective reached there.

Then I targeted six other specific players and said I would break the bank if necessary to get them. A goal I missed by one player unfortunately as Beanie Wells went way higher than I wanted to pay without completely destroying my chances at the other five. Those five were Chad Henne, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, James Lauranitis, and Rolando McClain. I felt with these players plus Rice, I would have a solid nucleus to build my team around. I paid some major bucks for them.

Throughout the draft I targeted mainly young players. Guys with only a season or two under their belt. My WRs are probably the best example. I totally bypassed any of the top WRs like Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald and bid on guys like Crabtree, Britt, and Knox. Hoping that if they don't bloom this year, they'll hit their stride in year three of their careers. Crabtree, Britt, and Massaquoi should all be their team's #1 wideout this year ... and hopefully for many years to come. Out of the seven WRs I drafted I have one rookie, four second year guys, one third year player, and one fifth year WR. Now that's drafting youth!

Did I draft a team that can win it all this year? Well, probably not ...to be honest. But give it another year or two and I could have a very strong contender. And a lot of players I will look forward to watching.